Wednesday, 26 September 2018
In the press there have been lurid stories about how we are all going to freeze and it is imminent, at least this winter. The reason cited is an El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean. This is climatic conditions that have a world wide impact as the great movements of sea water affect temperatures, humidity etc..
To go to source this is what the NOAA weather centre of the USA has to say on the subject. For this Autumn it is suggesting around half and for later in the winter perhaps up to two thirds of risk. But this is an estimate based on figures which are variable.
The NOAA is obliged to say that there is a risk and to suggest the level of it. They but not the media are careful to state that it might or might not occur because there are so many complex variables.
Besides the El Nino there are other factors which bear on the UK and differ from others because Earth is a big round thing which is constantly on the move causing stresses of weather, clouds, rain, temperatures, humidity and all the rest. The people who study this are very good and first rate scientists.
But they cannot stop or start an El Nino, or even state precisely what or where will be any consequences. They are obliged to tell the public via the media about what the possibilities are given all the various considerations in play.
We do have very bad winters from time to time and perhaps are due for another one. At the moment I am waiting before mending the holes in the socks.