Now Comes The Difficult Part

In the USA the Presidential election is about to become the main event.  Is Obama a shoe in given the Republican disarray?  Or can the Republican candidate, whoever they may be get enough traction or be lucky enough to see the President in trouble because of unforeseen events or sheer bad luck?

The French Presidential election is about to be unpleasant and mud is about to be thrown in large quantities if tradition is any guide.  If Sarkozy does hang on he will have a rough time.  If the Socialists return it will be all bets off as to what might happen.

Wherever you look there are other uncertainties.  In the UK the Coalition is about to enter the awkward mid phase of an administration when they are not sure what, if much, they have done and less sure about what might be done that the next election will soon be marked up on the calendars.

If there is change in Washington DC this means the usual across the board changes of personnel with those exiting priming the booby traps and those entering take a good deal of time to settle and work out how to do what as well as avoiding the problems left for them to clear up.

In France there will be the usual bitter and damaging personal disputes and rivalries to deal with in Paris when internal conflict will take priority over external matters.  This will be difficult to make any sense of when the demands of a wayward global economy will need all the logic and sense they could bring to it.

In the UK, it is likely that the Civil Service under The Treasury will retain control and grind the hapless politicians to dust in the same way that they have been doing for a good two decades now.  George Osborne, according to the cartoonists, has been given a head transplant with the donor being Gordon Brown.  So that’s where he got to.

David Cameron is not quite like Tony Blair.  He is a classier act, can tell the odd joke and does not sound like a revivalist preacher.  But he is prone to skipping about the world and what is left of the UK for any decent photo opportunity and chance for a cheery monologue.  The policy bit seems to be have been lost with the luggage between Asia and the America’s.

Of course the Coalition could collapse and Ed Miliband will walk into 10 Downing Street arm in arm with Nick Clegg, or maybe Vince Cable if it really gets silly.  In that case England will become Never Never Land and the other parts of the Atlantic Isles will have to look out for themselves.

Out there in the real world there is a lot to worry about.  Political troubles are becoming worse and more dangerous.  Leaders of some states are developing overweening ambitions about the exercise of power.  The megabanks and other major corporations, despite the disasters are still active each in its’ own selfish interests.

Last but not least are the money systems of the world, all of which are showing serious strain.  There are the pre-conditions in place for either another systemic collapse or just as bad a continuing damaging and unpredictable series of crises that just go on and on.

So for 2012 what will be the disaster of the year, apart from the traffic chaos in London during the summer for some obscure reason?