Europe - The Return Of The Habsburgs

Well, after all that, we are now agreed that basically, taking everything into consideration, and looking at all the options the Habsburgs were right. It is now admitted by our leaders in Europe, not all of them elected, that after about six hundred years, all those wars of ideologies, wealth and empire seeking, dynastic disputes, and sundry fighting between other groups with particular agendas were a waste of time, men and money.

If only those misguided people our forebears trusted with power in the past had just let the Habsburgs, their Emperors, Princes, Dukes and the rest get on with running the show, religion, trade, and everything we could all have lived happily ever after. Perhaps Herman van Rompuy and Catherine Ashton do not much resemble King Philip II of Spain, and Queen Mary Tudor of England who married at Winchester in July 1554 (above), but they are the best Europe can do for the time being. Tony and Cherie would have been a little too Ferdinand of Aragon and Isabella of Castile.

I will skip the slightly complicated history of the Habsburgs, it is all there on the web and Wikipedia serves for starters. Nor do I suggest that the various descendants of Habsburg’s line scattered about the world should be elevated to high positions in Europe. They seem to be a sociable lot, but their heritage has meant exclusion from politics. They could almost claim to be an ethnic group who have suffered social and political isolation and apply for the relevant grants from Brussels.

The point is that the Habsburgs, Holy Roman Emperors and all that, not only ruled much of Europe and beyond, but in the parts they did not have direct rule, exercised a profound influence over what went on. Moreover, many went in for micro management to an astonishing degree, complaining that they were slaves to their peoples. We can also ignore their foibles and eccentricities, difficulties in personal relationships, and consequences of genetic inbreeding. They are minor compared to those of many of the current European and UK leaders, and as for the UK we can substitute “political” for “genetic”. The effects of that are infinitely more serious and damaging to the business of ruling than the odd twitching of the DNA.

The Europe of the Habsburgs was a sprawling regime with its many parts rarely functioning in connection with the others. It was a massive tax and wealth gathering entity which spent vast sums on prestige projects, personal palaces, and in enforcing the doctrines of which they and only they determined and defined. It was multi layered to a bewildering and complicated degree. Most of the time of its functionaries was spend in working out who they were and what they were supposed to be doing. If they found that out, then someone higher up would confound it, and it will all start again.

Public decrees would be made, laws and regulations issued, but how they came to be or why would be shrouded in deep secrecy, and only the powerful or the proximate would be party to any of it. This meant that as you went down through the levels of administration, matters became slower and slower, and more uncertain. Nobody quite knew what decisions might be made and when, unless, of course, they paid good money to find out and obtain the right result.

There was a proliferation of senior, high paying, posts to satisfy the many clients of the state, and as many of the highest gathered so many of them to themselves, then there was extensive delegation to much cheaper and junior officials whose only hope of survival was to extract as much income and as quickly as possible. The Empire had a monopoly of policing and military matters that were closely combined and under the instruction of the doctrinal and legal administrative classes, so that rebellion was prevented, and any reformers or opposition would be classed as rebellion or heresy and dealt with accordingly.

At the highest levels it was necessary to have connections and background that were absolutely correct. Without the sixteen quarterings of the right families you could neither be admitted to nor held worthy of rule. Then it was ancestral because that was held to the test of rightness or wrongness. Today there are other tests of political correctness that amount to the same thing. The are boxes that contain the right configurations of display, beliefs, and membership.

Nobody really knew where the money went, and accounting was simply an exercise in writing fiction. Who was supposed to getting the money was one thing. Who really benefited was quite another, sometimes completely random in effect, and at others going to people who had abused every office they held. There were some political jurisdictions which held out against the Habsburg system, but in the 21st Century by the more effective methods of modern communications and means of propaganda they have been suborned and defeated.

For almost a century Europe was freed of the last of the Habsburg heritage. But it has been too difficult to shake them off. They may not be back in person, but their political tradition has triumphed. Their system is back, bigger and better than ever and we are all now subject.

At least we will not have dynastic or other wars, if you forget Afghanistan. Well, not for a year or two.

Peaks, Valleys, Ups And Downs

The picture above is part of the Pennines, a haven of nature and beauty and a National Park. You might imagine it was ever thus. Well it wasn’t and the lumps and bumps ought to catch the eye. Until a few generations ago it was an important mining and industrial area with a substantial population which had a history back to the Bronze Age, and was one of the reasons why the Romans invaded Britannia. Mixed in was extensive sheep farming which gave rise to many related industrial activities, albeit home and workshop based. The Wool Trade was once the backbone of the English economy.

The old population has almost all gone driven out by poverty and climatic disruption of the past. As someone who has Highland forebears who left for Clydeside at the time of the Clearances, it brought me up short when I read that in the same period more left the uplands of Yorkshire alone, forced out by both economic conditions and clearing landowners. They had no skilled writer like John Prebble to record and popularise their experiences and were long forgotten until local historians started asking about what happened and where the people went.

This part is the Peak District, once it peaked in economic terms, and today we are talking about other peaks. George Monbiot, writing this week, describes himself as a “madman with a sandwich board.” But like most of us who are barking mad, or just mad and barking loudly, now and again he says something coherent, unlike those at Westminster. He has said that if there is Peak Oil in terms of oil supplies, then under present conditions this means Peak Agriculture.

Quite simply either there is Peak Oil or there is not. If there is, and the only way from here is down, it is not just that motoring costs will go up, along with personal synthetic fragrances that are dominating the advertising slots on TV (wow get the benzene hit for early Alzheimers), cosmetics, home heating, plastic goods and the rest to our general inconvenience, but there is something more important. It is a complex story, but to pick out one item, most farm pesticides and fertilisers are based on petrol-chemicals as is the world’s food supply and its transportation.

As the world’s population and its demands seem to be increasing at a greater rate than oil supplies, even if Peak Oil has yet to be achieved then there is a problem. If we have used the world’s soils so hard that increased farming productivity will be limited, then there is a problem. If we are at, close to, or have passed Peak Oil then we have a much bigger problem. I am told by a very reliable source that food prices in the stores have begun to rise quite sharply, although for a variety of reasons.

From the text I would guess that George has been rummaging around some of the same sources that I go to for information. There is a major debate in progress that is becoming very bitter about how much oil there is, how much might be extracted, what costs will arise, and critically what will happen to the price of oil and all the petro-chemicals critical to our needs, never mind the wants.

We know that our wise and all seeing government once decreed that food security was not a problem. But they are all in the middle of London which is one of the most plentifully supplied locations on earth with almost all and any foods that are available on the planet. However, if they took time out to spend a happy day taking in the scenery on the M20, M2, and M25 they might realise that a great deal of it is being flown in or brought in by ship and trucked around by thousands of vehicles each day. Also our politicians are almost all voted in by an urbanised electorate who cannot tell one grain crop in a field from another, and some of whom are unaware that meat comes from animals.

Already there is concern amongst some experts about the effect of rising food prices on nutritional standards in the UK. For those on pensions and benefits this is going to hit hard, because their increases are determined by indexes in which food is a minor part. It may be that some of our population is already malnourished (apart from those in hospitals) and the problem of actual hunger for an increasing minority may not be far away.

Worse still is the unholy mess that Defra, the government department for defrauding farmers, is making of English agriculture. Not only has England become more reliant on imported food, but the level of disruption and financial crisis visited on farmers is threatening to cause a catastrophic fall in production. At the same time large areas of land are being given over to biofuels. Also, the local networks of producing and distribution, still functioning not too long ago, have been almost eliminated by the concentration of food supply into a limited number of supermarket chains.

It is already a problem in the USA, where tens of millions are now short of food and struggling to feed themselves and their families. There is ample comment on this and related matters, and the shortages are beginning to spread through other nations in the America’s. There is the fear of a political collapse in Mexico. In Africa there are known with severe problems, it is not known by how much it is increasing in other places. China has begun to buy up land there and there are suggestions that another Scramble For Africa has begun that promises to be as ugly as the first.

In China and elsewhere in the East the potential for serious problems are almost everywhere you look, so much of supply and distribution seems already to be under strain. Those who have an interest in ancient history know that the surface of the earth has remains of many peoples, communities, and civilisations that ended long ago. They have been found and are still being found not only in the hills and deserts but in the waters below the seas. It was not only climate change that ruined them, but also political turbulence, as often as not to do with food supplies and wealth.

GK Chesterton said “One sees great things from the valley; only small things from the Peak”. Has anyone a spare sandwich board to lend me?

High Speed Train Crash Due On Platform Number 10

The Government has just renationalised the old LNER East Coast Main Line, lately run by National Express, who gave up for financial reasons, and who took over from GNER whose franchise went bad, essentially for the same reasons. Not too many miles away in Earth distances is the West Coast Main Line, more or less in the hands of Virgin Rail, that allegedly turns an apparent profit, but only after huge government subsidies, hidden and otherwise.

Both just operate the trains, all the track etc. is in the hands of Network Rail, I am told a non-dividend paying setup and what is left of Railtrack after it went into a sort of you know what I mean government administration at high cost to the taxpayer. In short the existing railway lines from London to Scotland are costing us all a great deal of money even if we never travel on a train.

Amongst the flurry of prestige project proposals from the Department of Bright Ideas run from the Cabinet Office frantically trying to shore up support in their political heartlands and to outbid the enemies south and north of the Scottish Border is for a new railway from London to Scotland, that is to be built up to Birmingham and Manchester and then to fork West and East to satisfy the party faithful either side of the Pennines, and in the long divided communities of Glasgow and Edinburgh. This is to be a high speed line built to European standards. What a pity British Railways closed and tore up the old high speed line in the 1960’s at the urging of a Labour Government, just for the record I worked on this line for a time.

The cost currently mooted is a stunningly cheap £30 billion. If my memory is correct the existing Eurotunnel tunnel line, much shorter and less complicated, estimated at an affordable level, went way over budget, and landed the government with a huge problem in refinancing and other costs. Even now, with the debt waived away, it is a struggle to do well, the freight has not been forthcoming. The latest wheeze has been for the Ministry of Transport to strongarm South Eastern Railways into buying a number of Japanese trains and run a high speed service from St. Pancras to improve times to Thanet and East Kent, coincidentally where there are Labour held seats.

How well this service will do has to be seen. One way of trying to make it pay has been both to cut and slow down services along the three existing lines. The high speed times are quicker, but not that much for the money the punter has to pay, and St. Pancras is a lot less convenient as a destination for most than either London Bridge or Charing Cross.

If, at least out of a sense of humour, we allow that the new lines will be built for that £30 billion, then do the finances look like? The train sets will not be cheap, there is a lot of expensive looking hardwear there. The operating costs will also be high. Who will travel on these trains? It will not be the 25-30% of the Scots population currently on benefits, and nor is likely to be many of the other 30-40% in public sector jobs catering for the locals. The private sector has a lot of low paid labour. It means that it will depend on the limited number of high rollers in the private and public sectors currently entitled to first class travel.

There are not that many of them to sustain such a service and some may prefer to fly. If the good times were to return and many could use the high speed high cost service, then it will wipe out much of the First Class element so important to the existing franchises. All in all, is there is snowball’s chance in hell of these new lines making the one or two billion per annum above operating costs to pay the interest and financing charges on a £30 billion build cost, plus train sets and other installations? If the usual suspects that handle financing, consultancy and other costs are to be involved think of a few figures then write in the largest.

Currently Birmingham already has two lines to London, also there are two from Leeds. Although Manchester has but one, it would not take too much to reinstate one of the old ones. I could go on at length at what series of minor improvements here and there could be made to existing lines that could transform times and service. But this would not be politically “sexy” and would not shower money on the Governments favourite accomplices.

Also, I have explained before that the obsessions of the old companies as well as British Railways with the East and West Coast main lines had a seriously damaging effect on other provision. There is a great deal that could be done, both in England and Scotland. There is too much to explain again about the possibilities. They involve improvements in areas and constituencies that are not Labour held, and that would take responsible government, something that we have long forgotten.

During the Miner’s Strike of 1984-1985 one of the running jokes in Yorkshire was what Arthur would come up with next. One favourite was that he would demand that to give work to unemployed miners the Channel Tunnel should start in Barnsley. If Brown is re-elected will Arthur be invited to turn the first sod on the new high speed line from Camden to Cowdenbeath?

The Age Of The Looter

One of my world weary attempts to explain things to people is that the “ism’s” they either like to believe in or fiercely oppose are not what they think they are and the reality is entirely different. “Free markets” and “capitalism” in their theoretical forms are just common examples of the many bundles of ideas or ideologies which have little or nothing to do with the way it all works in the modern world.

This is brought to mind by posts in The Burning Platform dot com, click on search, and then click on page 21. Jim Quinn asserts that oil prices are governed not by free market trading, or indeed by decisions of the OPEC cartel, but essentially by a huge racket run by a group of major firms. Gathered together in the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) which includes Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BP, and others there has been large scale manipulation of pricing with complex movements of money that have effectively controlled the price levels. By managing them up and down, the companies involved between them have creamed off trillions of dollars. In effect this is looting the vulnerable economies, developed and undeveloped, on a large scale.

Similar techniques have been applied to other commodity markets. In short the prices of many key goods have little or nothing to do with real demand or supply for normal economic purposes, but everything to do with achieving the best margins available in the financial, trading, and speculative mechanisms. This is not pure speculation which has a function in true free markets, but controlled speculation that is not designed simply to win, but to extract as much as the market will stand. Nor is there free and full information in the sense that is regarded as essential to free market. There is secrecy both in ways and means.

Our legislators and governors are supposed to protect us from looting of this kind, and malpractices that have the same effect. But through the lobbies, cartel and protection organisations and the rest many of them have been bought. It is common in the USA for the Congressional Record to be filled with speeches essentially ghost written for the Senators and Representatives by the lobbyists. It is much the same in the UK, one way or another. Allied to this is the way such organisations have the major media largely in their control by the weight and influence of their public relations machinery, and again their buying of the system. Wherever you may go, markets in the globalised age are now governed, despite what appears to be a wealth of information.

The trouble is that these governors do not know what is going in their organisations. They are too big, impossible to control or manage other than by setting financial targets, and so complex that their very function creates risks at such a level that they court chaos and danger every day. It is a bout of chaos we have experienced recently in the credit crunch, and there is more to come. But institutionalised looting is not new in human history. The Feudal System was one form of looting by inter related magnate dynasties in Europe. The Roman Empire was another, for all the gloss of “civilisation”. It might have been “diverse” but it was dependent on slaves and rapacious political control. The trouble is we do not see so much of the past as politically and economically a variety of means of looting others. We tend to limit our ideas to the Vikings, another collection of gangs on the make. I quote from Hurstwic, a New England Viking re-enactment group.

Quote:

The aspect of Norse society that most captures the modern popular imagination is the Viking raids. The historical records of Europe (written for the most part by the educated clergy who often were the victims of these raids) called the raiders "a most vile people". But the raiders themselves certainly didn't hold that opinion. To them, the raids were a normal and desirable consequence of the pressures on a growing society and of the religious beliefs of the time.

In the mind of the Norse people, raiding was very distinct from theft. Theft was abhorrent. According to the Norse mythology, theft was one of the few acts that would condemn a man to a place of torment after his death. On the other hand, raiding was an honorable challenge to a fight, with the victor retaining all of the spoils. A story from chapter 46 of Egils saga Skalla-Grímssonar illustrates this distinction. While raiding a coastal farm, Egill and his men were captured by the farmer and his family, who bound all of the raiders. In the night that followed, Egill was able to slip his bonds. He and his men grabbed their captors' treasure and headed back to the ship. But along the way, Egill realized he was acting like a thief, which was shameful. So, he returned to his captors' house, set it ablaze, and killed the occupants as they tried to escape the fire. He then returned to the ship with the treasure, this time as a hero. Because he had fought and won the battle, he could justly claim the booty.

Raiding was a desirable occupation for a young man, although a more mature man was expected to settle down and raise a family. This view of raiding is described by Ketill to his son, Þorsteinn, in chapter 2 of Vatnsdæla saga. Ketill was not pleased that his son had taken no initiative in rooting out a highwayman working nearby who had killed dozens of travelers. Ketill said to his son, "The behavior of young men today is not what it was when I was young."

He said that it was once the custom of powerful men to go off raiding, in order to win riches and renown for themselves. Even if sons inherited their family lands, they were unable to sustain their high status unless they put themselves and their men at risk and went into battle, winning wealth and renown for themselves. Raiding increased a man's stature in Viking society. A successful raider returned home with wealth and fame, the two most important qualities needed to climb the social ladder.

Unquote

There is nothing new under the sun. Let us see these mega corporations and their political affiliates, allegedly our elected governments and international organizations, for what they really are and the tradition they truly serve. They are the looters of our time and this is the Age of The Looter. When it will end is an interesting question. If we have reached and perhaps passed Peak Oil, and peaks of other key commodities, the debate rages, and population continues to rise at its present rate then there will be another breakdown of societies, irrespective of whether Earth is warming up or about to cool down.

So a shopping list, one double headed axe, one six strand sword, double leather jerkin, shield, a Sutton Hoo type helmet, a long well found vessel ready for use, and a few other things. Anyone for the “Skylark”?

Olympics Security - The Cat Has Emerged From The Bag

The story below popped up on the BBC News Online – England – London page today, apparently arising from the Radio 4 “Today” programme as an incidental comment. It did not make the national news or listings, perhaps it might have made the provincials nervous.


Resolute readers of this blog will have seen it all before, although in a much fuller explanation. Tuesday 12 May was when I posted “2012 Olympic Security Costs”. This item was written at the end of last year and I had given it some circulation although to no effect. Why is the London media so coy about this one? It is one reason why the government needs all these stringent security and control laws and regulations


Quote


'Huge challenge' of 2012 security


The 2012 Olympics and Paralympics are likely to present the UK's "greatest security challenge" since World War II, Home Office minister Lord West says.


The level of terrorist threat at the London Games is expected to be severe, the second-highest level, he added. Lord West is reviewing the best way to protect built-up areas, transport systems and national infrastructures from terrorist attacks.


"We do not underestimate the scale of the Olympics challenge," he stressed. Speaking at a conference in London on Olympic security, he said it was important to ensure measures were not so heavy-handed that they frightened people away from the Games. "The Olympics and Paralympics are about sport and not security.


"We want the world to be inspired by sport in London, and our security plans have to strike a balance between visible security and the welcome that we want." Lord West went on: "There is no doubt that the 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games promises to be the greatest Games in history - and possibly the greatest security challenge the UK has faced since the Second World War."


'Clarity needed'


Shadow security minister Dame Pauline Neville Jones, who is attending the conference, said that the role of the armed forces during the Games must be confirmed. In January, Gen Sir David Richards - who is now head of the Army - told MPs that "the sooner we get clarity, the better" on the Olympic security process.


Dame Pauline believes the Army should have a role at the Games, but stressed this did not necessarily mean that soldiers should conduct high-profile patrols. "What I understand at the moment is that there is agreement that they should be part of it, but they haven't yet been told what they are going to be doing," she told BBC Radio 4's Today programme. "That's one of the reasons I think General Richards wants to know. "He has to factor that in to what he's doing with his men in 2012."


A Home Office spokesman said that the armed forces were expected to provide additional specialist support and back-up to police and other security teams at the Games. Two senior staff from the Ministry of Defence have already been seconded into roles on the planning team for Olympic security, he said. He added that "a lot of work is going on" to make arrangements for the Army.


Unquote


We truly live in a weird world. An irritable old man with a cheapo computer left with only his thoughts, can beat the whole panoply of State and security in realizing the blinding obvious, and without a penny of bonus.

Flight Information - The UK Is Cancelled

It is reported that British Airways and Iberia Airlines are discussing a merger. This is shorthand for yet another substantial UK company going offshore and under foreign ownership, with the money coming from certain trusts, private equity, and a raft of other international investors from here and there.

So what will they call the new airline?

Spanish Fly?

Fiscal Problems - First The Bad News - Second The Worse News

From The Bear’s Lair – Martin Hutchinson
Prudent Bear Dot Com – 10 November 2009
Article - “Which Big Country Will Default First?”

Below are three extracts from an interesting article, dealing with the six major economies, the USA, Japan, Britain, Germany, China, and France. They do not make happy reading for the UK.

Extract One

The worst budget balance of the three deficit countries is in Britain, where the forecast budget deficit for calendar 2009 is a staggering 14.5% of GDP. Furthermore, the Bank of England has been slightly more irresponsible in its financing mechanisms than even the USA Federal Reserve, leaving interest rates above zero but funding fully one third of public spending through direct money creation. Governor Mervyn King has a reputation in the world's chancelleries as a conservative man of economic understanding.

He doesn't really deserve it, having been one of the 364 lunatic economists who signed a round-robin to Margaret Thatcher in 1981 denouncing her economic policies just as they were on the point of magnificently working, pulling Britain back from what seemed inevitable catastrophic decline. King's quiet manner may be more reassuring to skeptics than the arrogance of "Helicopter Ben" Bernanke, but the reality of his policies is little sounder and the economic situation facing him is distinctly worse.

Extract Two

Britain has two additional problems not shared by the United States and Japan. First, its economy is in distinctly worse shape. Growth was negative in the third quarter of 2009, unlike the modest positive growth in the U.S. and the sharp uptick in Japan. Moreover, whereas U.S. house prices are now at a reasonable level, in terms of incomes (albeit still perhaps 10% above their eventual bottom), Britain's house prices are still grossly inflated, possibly in London even double their appropriate level in terms of income.

The financial services business in Britain is a larger part of the overall economy than in the U.S. and the absurd exemption from tax for foreigners has brought a huge disparity between the few foreigners at the top of the City of London and the unfortunate locals toiling for mere mortal rewards. A recent story that the housing market for London homes priced above $5 million British pounds was being reflated by Goldman Sachs bonuses indicates the problem, and suggests that the further deflation needed in U.K. housing will have a major and unpleasant economic effect.

The other question to be answered for all three countries is that of political will. If as is certainly the case in Britain, deficits at the current levels will lead to default (albeit not for some years since the country's public debt is still quite low), then to avoid default tough decisions must be taken. Britain is in poor shape in this respect. Its current prime minister, Gordon Brown, is largely responsible for the underlying budget problem, having overspent during the boom years, largely on added bureaucracy rather than on anything productive or value-creating.

However, the opposition Conservatives, likely to take power next spring, are led by a center-leftist with a background in public relations and no discernable backbone or principles. Britain has a history of such leaders, which it has managed to survive – the ineffable Harold Macmillan, in particular, who wanted to abolish the Stock Exchange and contemplated nationalizing the banks when they raised interest rates, was a man of outlook and temperament very similar to David Cameron's. Macmillan was notoriously prone to soft options that postponed economic problems, firing his entire Treasury team in pursuit of soft options in 1958 and leaving behind an appalling legacy of inflationary bubble on his retirement in 1963.

If Cameron is truly like Macmillan, his government's response to economic and financial disaster will be one of wriggle rather than confrontation. With neither party providing solutions to an economic crisis, the British public is likely to discover that, unlike in the crisis of 1976, no solutions will be found. Default (doubtless disguised as with Argentina as "renegotiation") would in that case inevitably follow.

Extract Three

We'd all better hope the urge for fiscal responsibility hits London, Washington and Tokyo pretty damn soon.

Comment

Does anyone know where I can get hold of some cowrie shells?