Idol On Parade, Finance, Philosophy & Rock & Roll

This is an item of contrasts, mixing an interesting post from Zero Hedge about a lack of awareness with a question about why people might forget about the past even when it was in the mainstream of Pop culture.

The Zero Hedge one concerns beliefs in relation to the risks of inflation. Note the comment on the use of CPI in relation to the shift of the UK government into using this form of index to measure inflation.

Another comment in the Zero Hedge part might apply to considering the travel chaos arising out the present weather conditions is under On Idol Of The Den about the average person underestimating the nature of potential disaster.

Quote:

Idols Of The Unaware
Michael Victory

Does the average person understand what central bankers globally are doing to money? Do they realize inflation is about to cause crisis in America?

I suppose the answer is no, however they will likely soon feel the effects.

Francis Bacon (1561–1626) was an English philosopher, statesman, scientist, lawyer, jurist and author. Bacon developed a reliable method of questioning he believed would free people from dependence on infrequent geniuses (Ozmon & Craver, 2008).

He encouraged individuals to develop alternative methods of thought. According to Ozmon &Craver (2008), Bacon believed that “knowledge is power”, and devised what he called the “inductive method.”

Bacon’s inductive approach insists on confirmation of specifics before reaching conclusions. Bacon urged people to reexamine all previously accepted knowledge. He believed people should free their minds of various “idols”.

Three of Bacon’s idols, according to Ozmon & Craver, (2008):

Idol of the Den:

People believe things because of their own limited experiences.

Idol of the Tribe:

People tend to believe things because most people believe them.

Idol of the Marketplace:

This idol deals with language because Bacon believed that words often are used in ways that prevent understanding.

On Idol of the Den:

The average person underestimates the possibility of a disaster and its effects. They believe since something has never happened before it never will. We are all guilty of this as it is human nature.

On Idol of the Tribe:

The idea of a currency collapse or hyperinflation is alien to the average person. They are likely unaware of such an event. If they watch a major television network, they are likely to trust an economic recovery is underway.

On Idol of the Marketplace:

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a government statistic that measures consumer goods and services prices, and is used to gauge inflation in the United States.

What is interesting about CPI is that it fails to recognize rising prices of food and energy. What? The cost of food and energy are not considered by government as indicators of overall inflation?

Talk about unclear language that restricts understanding.

Warning Signs

Worldwide quantitative easing is flooding global money supply. This money is chasing fewer goods as more and more of the world’s population ramps up consumption.

Predictably, this will lead to higher prices. It is happening now, as we are already seeing food and energy prices rise significantly with price increases of 30% or more year-over-year.

Another sign of coming fiscal problems, which ultimately leads to more monetary quantitative easing, is continued uncontrolled spending of federal, state and local governments.

As more money is spent, more needs to be created to monetize the debt. Quantitative easing and monetizing are trouble. Especially with a measuring stick now segmented in trillions.

Monetizing will ultimately overwhelm purchasing power of everyone holding U.S. dollars, and dollar denominated assets. Inflation is set to occur at an alarming rate.

Drink Upstream

Francis Bacon urged people to reexamine previously accepted knowledge, and believed people should attempt to liberate their minds of the assorted idols. Bacon encouraged individuals to develop an alternative method of thought (Ozmon & Craver, 2008).

Is there a chance the prediction of extreme future inflation is inaccurate? Yes, and I genuinely hope it is. This piece isn’t really about if I’m right or wrong.

It’s about preparation and identifying the possibilities, because it seems likely economic recovery will not take place anytime soon. It should be easy to see, the signs are all around us.

I reckon it’s still not a bad time to pick up a few pounds of extra rice, tins of tobacco and some junk silver. It is without a doubt a time to heed Francis Bacon’s remarks, to free our minds and think independently.

Ozmon, H. A. & Craver, S. M. (2008). Philosophical foundations of education (8th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson/Merrill Prentice Hall.

Unquote

The heading is the title of a 1959 film which was great fun and very popular in its time, boosting the career of a number of British and other actors. Yet it does not seem to have appeared on TV and there seems to be no DVD.

The information is on the web and the IDMB user reviews give an idea of how much enjoyment it gave to many people. Also, it throws an interesting light on the hows and whys of British Rock at the time.

Wny has it simply been forgotten and discarded despite all the star names and both its period feel and quality?

It may be that it simply does not fit the legend propagated by the present Media about how Rock etc. came to be in the UK and in particular it was the Sixties that mattered, the Fifties were a dark age of deference and strict morals.

They weren’t and for that matter neither were the Forties.

If we can do this with part of our Rock and Pop history it is easy to see just why we manage to get so much wrong and make so many disastrous mistakes.

Time Goes By

GETTING THERE SLOWLY

You know that you are old when……..


The “Help The Aged” charity collectors on the street no longer ask you for contributions.

No one wants to sell you insurance policies.

Someone ignores you but tells your spouse that their parent is looking quite well for their age.

Junk mail is something that keeps you in touch with things.

Every morning your head feels terrible despite being sober or not the night before.

You ask a Chelsea supporter if Madonna had a good game; and then you tell him why the team of 1955 were a great deal better than the present one, just to cheer him up.

All the day’s programmes on the History and Biography channels deal with subjects within your living memory.

None of the plots in any of the “soaps” is new to you.

Recalling what a nuisance STD was to you in the past you forget to say that you are referring to the pre-digital telephone Subscriber Trunk Dialling system.

The nights always seem to be getting longer, and so do the days.

The quart of ale that took a short time to drink and a long time to lose now works to an inverse ratio.

Shoelaces are a bad idea.

The hours parking charge you have just paid is more than your first week’s wages.

Before you get anywhere, your feet start to hurt.

Telling young people how eccentric, unpredictable, and difficult your parents were, they begin to look at each other.

At the end of the day the number of things you intended to do is exceeded by the number of things that did not get done.

At the restaurant you ask for a starter of bread and dripping.

Securing the senior citizen concessions is more important than your pride.

Your grandparents turned out to be right.

Going to bed each night you feel tired, stiff, and aching, but when you get up it is even worse.

Reading a glossy magazine you think that the Rolling Stones look older than you do.

You are unwilling to admit you never used a computer during your working life.

At a concert the programme notes tell you that all the composers listed lived much shorter lives than you have.

Your relations stop asking when you are going to grow up.

The girl of your dreams is no longer a beautiful barmaid but a nurse who knows how to insert a catheter properly.

Heaving cases around is too much trouble so you don’t bother to go away.

At the health shop you ask for some orgiastic chocolate.

On telling people that you did National Service they think you were convicted for anti-social behaviour, and you enjoy their apologies when you explain that it meant serving your country.

You never tell people that you were court-martialled for gross insubordination, going absent without leave, missing parades, drunk and disorderly conduct, improper use of a main battle tank and other military equipment, and goosing the Colonel’s wife.

Your spouse prefers to talk about TV archaeology programmes when you move closer in bed.

At a large wedding reception you are the only one there who saw Tommy Lawton head a goal.

Airline food tastes good.

You are spending longer at the doctors and hospital clinics than down at the pub.

Your IQ is declining faster than your bank balance.

It makes you laugh to recall how proud you were of your teenage outfit of oxblood leather brogue shoes, chocolate brown twill trousers, green Harris Tweed jacket, white starched collar shirt, striped old school tie, and woolly tartan scarf. Then they remind you that your style is unchanged.

Other drivers misunderstand your old Highway Code hand signals for obscene gestures.

Poetry has some meaning.

Your family asks you to stop calling your new battery operated wet razor a vibrator. So, on family occasions you enjoy telling people that you use a vibrator at least every morning and often just before you go out.

Some of the people keeping warm and dry at the library have gone straight from college into early retirement.

At 3 a.m. when your spouse finds you watching TV it really is a cartoon channel.

You kick stones along the pavement again.

If nobody is watching you see from how far you can hit a lamp post with a gob of spit.

Telling youngsters that Frankie Laine and Guy Mitchell were much better than the Beatles, they ask who the Beatles were.

In a City of London pub you are the oldest in the bar by forty years.

Someone offers you a seat on a Tube train.

When you look in the mirror you see the uncle who was never invited to family parties, but always turned up to teach the kids how to cheat at cards and dice.

Your young relations often forget to ask you to family occasions, and complain when you teach their kids the computer hacking, martial arts, and graffiti tagging skills they need nowadays.

Waking up in the morning you cannot work out if it is tomorrow or yesterday.

The people presenting the funeral plan advert’s on TV look too young for the job.

You still wear the top part of your pyjamas, and at mid-day you are still wearing them.

The Chief Constable looks like a teenager.

You have to keep your own medical records because your NHS ones have been deleted by their computer’s automatic archive control function on the grounds that you are deceased.

People laugh when you assure them that loose-leaf tea makes a better brew than tea bags.

You finally go on a coach holiday having avoided them because of all those old people and find you are the oldest on the coach.

No friends of your childhood or youth respond to your details on Internet contact sites.

The bad knee changes legs from day to day.

At a Wake the deceased looks in better health than you do.

At the Museum the 1930-1950 Display showing the poor living conditions of the lower income groups reminds you of families much better off than yours at the time.

You fancy sixty year old’s.

You have conversations with automatic telephone answering systems.

The name of the scorers in tonight’s crucial game escape you but you recall every detail of the first TV Cup Final of 1950 when serious errors of judgement by the linesmen and outrageous refereeing decisions robbed Liverpool of the game against Arsenal.

At the gym the staff check out the resuscitation equipment when you sign in.

On motorways other drivers begin to overtake you.

Pensioners staggering across pedestrian crossings cause you to brake instead of accelerate.

Reading books on Modern History tells you that you got it all totally wrong, and so did every one else of your generation. The information is used to prove you were always right.

Hot weather keeps you at home, and so does cold weather.

All the events mentioned in obituaries are very familiar.

Train timetables reveal their inner meaning, but you cannot remember the times of the trains.

You wear jeans hoping that people will think you are only in your sixties.

At a christening you assume, wrongly, that the happy parents are married. Much worse, you assume that the man is the father.

You prefer the Departure Lounges at Heathrow to attending any kind of meeting.

Grand Opera makes sense.

Even ballet makes sense.

Either ticking the box for your age group always means going to the bottom of the list or the drop down for your year of birth on the web site does not go back long enough.

None of your old clothes fit, and the shops do not stock any that do.

Dentists start smiling when they look in your mouth.

Doctors stop smiling when you enter their surgery.

You keep sitting on your glasses.

The joke that went down so badly at a party was one you first heard behind the bike sheds when you were fourteen, and you still think it is funny.

The sound is either too loud or not quite loud enough.

At a gathering you make it clear to everyone in the room individually and several times that you cannot stand old people who talk too much.

Everything takes three times longer than it should do.

And lastly:

You can’t remember what you have forgotten.

Winter Is A'Cumen In

You need to be knocking on a bit to recall the winter of 1962-1963 and more to have much of a memory of 1946-1947. There is material online dealing with this and that, for the most part either personal or some of the worst events.

I was relatively lucky both times. No car to worry about and living within short walking distance of work, shops and other facilities, including rail stations at the time of steam. In those days along the line of supply at all stages there were stocks held and much of what we ate came from shorter distances.

In general economic terms, however, both of these winters came at bad times. The 1947 winter was a particular case. The UK was in serious economic trouble after World War Two. Because there was so little to consume and severe rationing was in place for many goods there was little to cut there. The War had run down public services so badly that there was not much left at the margins.

The consequence was a major setback to the economy, a political disaster for the Labour Party, coming just 18 months after an election where promises had been made. Because of the scale and nature of other problems of the period the impact of the severe weather on several margins of economic activity at the time has never been fully weighed up or judged against these other problems.

The 1962-1963 bad winter was different in scope. However, a Conservative Government that had won re-election by upping spending in 1959 was now in the situation of trying to control and correct rising inflation and major balance of trade issues, amongst other serious problems.

The economic impact of this winter was more severe in some ways. Notably, this was on consumption spending by now a much larger feature of the economy. But it hit badly on those parts of the economy where the government had tried to drive up activity.

In a world without credit cards and banks being obliged to operate strict credit controls the cost of the winter to the ordinary people had a large impact on overall spending. Food prices shot up and household fuel spending rocketed with an immediate impact on other spending.

If we do have a long cold and difficult winter it will not be easy to work out what would be the overall effect in 2010-2011. This is especially the case as so many government and other indices have been manipulated to tell other stories. If the evidence is thin for past winters it may be non-existent for this one.

It may be that all the pessimism about what the weather conditions are likely to be in the next month or two may be wrong. But bad winters can and do happen from time to time. In 1946-47 in some respects we were more ready and had the labour to deal with some of the worst. 1962-1963 was more troublesome in some ways but there was still enough flexibility and expertise to deal with many things.

This time round if it is a bad one at that kind of level it is possible that we no longer have the labour, the expertise or the facilities to deal with it properly. Cameron needs to have a key committee and other government emergency advisers looking at this one if he isn’t going to go the way of Attlee and Macmillan.

Infectious Or Contagious?

When I was in the British Army of Occupation in Germany the European Unity idea seemed a good thing as long as the Americans and the Brit’s were directly in charge. At the time we even thought that if the locals were allowed to work together on their coal and steel production it would be of use to us.

Sadly, our period of direct control ended and when it did The Treasury cut the rate of exchange for the UK Armed Service personnel in pounds to the new DM in Germany by 40%. We should have regarded this as a bad omen. Since then it has all gone down hill and down market.

After our failure to rebrand the Empire as a Commonwealth held together by The City in the Sterling Area and to compete with the USA in the America’s and other places we surrendered to the New Europe in the 1970’s and dumped The Commonwealth.

More by accident than design we kept the pound sterling if not the Sterling Area and this was kept afloat by the discovery of North Sea Oil and Gas. In the meantime our neighbours invented the Euro.

This was because it was apparent that even a united Europe could not stop the French, Italians and Spanish from serious mismanagement of their currencies. At the time I suggested that the Euro was essentially a vehicle without a reverse gear or reliable steering and brakes.

Like others who shared my view I was dismissed as an ignoramus entirely lacking in vision and belief and with a tawdry attitude of expecting things to work properly. This is why I regarded those hyping the Euro as about as reliable as salesmen selling British cars of the 1970’s.

Now the fuses are blowing in European finance and the Euro is under stress we wonder what is going on. If you ask what will become of it and feel that at present none of it is quite logical and that those at the top are mostly distraught or drunk, then you are not alone.

In fact, there is expert opinion on the matter:

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/5913

It is titled “The Eurozone In Bad Need Of A Psychiatrist”.

Not quite in the best of taste but indicative, as they say.

Demonstrations For Dummies

This item has attempted to reduce the real issues to the bare bones. For that reason the word “Police” covers all police and supporting agencies.

The word “Others” covers all those engaging in demonstrations and similar actions whether they are simply peaceful protestors, activists or extremists. They can overlap a great deal depending on the issues and what happens on the day.

There is a substantial and complex history to demonstrations and protest which I have simply taken as read. Going into this would make it far too long.

It is my view that in the last decade the balance has now shifted in favour of the Others. The Police and related authorities are now in a retreat from control of the streets and urban areas. This has serious implications, is simply not understood by Politicians or Police or Media and will need some radical thinking and changes to redress the new balance of power on the streets.

Over much of the 20th Century we were led to assume that the Police could and should control situations. This was dependent on certain kinds of systems and organisation of the period that have now been overtaken. Before the 20th Century there were major differences and often it was the military that were used.

Command and Control

The Police have a highly stratified hierarchical multi level system of command in which at each level individuals are constrained to limited function within a closely defined sphere of activity. Consequently the transmission of orders and advice downward is through a series of contacts that all have to function. Upward servicing of information, advice and interpretation, however, is variable and subject to filters.

This does not apply to the Others who will have very few levels, only self imposed constraints and limitations and will have a high degree of flexibility and responsive contact. Within small areas they will be more mobile and will not be contained by any defined boundaries.

The Others will decide to do what they will do at any level sometimes with reference to others, sometimes not. What this might be can vary greatly from initial intentions or planning. Their operations, objectives and organisation can be fluid not simply within days but within minutes depending on the ground of their actions.

Communications

In the last decade the ability of ordinary people with limited incomes to both transmit and receive complicated messages and data has been transformed. It is possible to have immediate interaction and communication across distances instantly. This means possibilities might be discussed and amendments and changes to plans and intentions can happen with immediate effect.

The situation now is that the Others are better equipped and more capable of inter communication and altering arrangements than are the Police who are limited to the services provided by their public sector bureaucratic administration. The Others are better informed and indeed have a much greater communication capability.

Additionally, as well as in the immediate situation the scope of movement, power to make contact 24/7 and the information storage and transmission facilities enable the Others to plan and organise as effectively as the Police and because of the lack of limitation in their structures more extensively if they wish.

Action

The Police are subject to tightly defined and complex rules of engagement and for the most part will act as large groups. To a great extent they will be rule based and very limited in their scope of action and response. Also, afterwards they will be answerable to a range of public interest bodies which may or may not be sympathetic.

It is now common for the Police and connected public services to fail to take action or to allow lives to be lost or risked because of the complex rules of control when faced with serious situations. The London 7/7 events when they held back when people were dying in agony and many similar recent events are now the norm

The Others can attempt to take whatever action they wish to and can change their basis immediately and without reference to others, legal constraints or concern for later political or media criticism. They will not be subject to inquiries unless they agree to and they are often at little risk of loss of employment.

Both the Police and Others may find themselves facing legal action of one kind or another. However, while this is adverse for the Police it may be welcomed by some Others as part of their publicity and propaganda.

The way the modern media works it is the Police that will have to explain every action in detail but the Others are much more able to avoid enquiry. As a consequence of the nature form and intention of regulation it is now the rule for the Police as far as possible to avoid action that may incur criticism.

Implications

The present situation means higher levels of risk, less capability in maintaining order on the streets either for demonstrations or other events. The weaknesses in the command and control of the Police are leading to a high rate of error and failure. Under pressure there are frequent breakdowns.

The advantage now lies with the Others and inevitably the criminal elements now more widespread, wealthy, better organised and financed.

At the same time increased demands are being made. The leaking of the terms of the contract with the IOC and the demand for the 2012 Olympic Games made by them are likely to create an impossible situation for the Metropolitan Police under present conditions.

My post of Tuesday 12 May 2009 expressed a number of concerns: http://thecynicaltendency.blogspot.com/2009/05/2012-olympic-security-costs.html

This and other events and challenges are likely to make demands that our present Police, related services and organisations are unable to meet on their present basis.

Training Students For The Future

PRESS RELEASE

UNIVERSITY OF HITHER GREEN

As part of its ongoing reformulation of structures and engineering of social capability and responsiveness to a fast changing challenge in the learning environment the Faculty of Humanity and Science has created a new degree course. This has been achieved by the internal readjustment of revenue and capital flows.

Those students presently enrolled in the Physics, Chemistry, Modern Languages, European History, Classics and Philosophy courses will be reallocated with credits for modules that either have been completed or would have been if the student in question can be deemed to be present.

The new course is as follows:

COURSE 73C

B. Sc. In “Railway Observation And Analysis”

First Year Course

Spatial Analysis in Linear Perception
Configuration of Platforms for Flow Mathematics
History of Railway Provision
Development Economics of Rail Systems
Structures of Form and Avoidance of Legal Constraints

Second Year Course

The Elements of Movement and Distance
Recording Techniques and Numerical Awareness
Directional Learning and Acquisition
Applied Complex Movement
Basic Sound Communication Elements

Third Year Course

Practical Climatic Change, Chaos and Collapse Dynamics
Photographic and Related Technical Basics
Advanced Communication Failure Techniques
Public Relations and Animal Herding Studies
Software Systems and Breakdown Theory

Fourth Year Course

This will be based on the presentation of a Dissertation extending Third Year course work with special reference to Climate Change, Chaos, Communication Limitations and Human Deresourcing. This will be based on Field Work to be undertaken at Clapham Junction, West Hampstead, Willesden and Old Oak Common.

The successful completion of the course will entitle the graduate to access on designated rail stations and termini for the purpose of enumeration of rail stock.

Taking The Temperature

Just how bad could the winter be? Wikipedia has entries on “Winter of 1946-1947 In The United Kingdom” as well as “Winter of 1962-1963 In The United Kingdom”. There have been other difficult ones as well, although some more regional in scope.

They deserve reading and some thought. In those days, however, there were far more men to hand to do the shovelling and distribution systems were not just-in-time but had substantial storage facilities as a necessary part of the business.

As the Minister for Fuel and Power, Emmanuel Shinwell found out, if you took the risk that the winter would be a mild one it would not simply be embarrassing, it could destroy the credibility of your party.

At the time when Shinwell was deciding not to press for increased coal production this article appeared in the Manchester Guardian when it was still based in that City. It is not about the United Kingdom, it is about Germany.

Quote:

Guardian

Postwar Germany: a place of horror

JP Hogan
Thursday October 30, 1947

In the square in front of the station, a few lamps shed pale incandescence over the deserted pavements below, emphasising the desolation and dereliction. I floundered over pavement edges with the aid of a torch.

I would shy at the approach of a glowing cigarette-end. I knew, well enough, that human lips held the cigarette, that human feet propelled the wooden shoes.

But there are times when it is hard to believe what one knows; and in Oberhausen I could never be sure that I was not a dead man among the dead in a dead town.

The platform was just light enough for one to see that an enormous crowd of men, women, and children had congregated, with suitcases and portmanteaux and sacks.

They are "hamsterers", town-dwellers who go into the country to "scrounge" potatoes, fruit and vegetables. "Hamstern" means to hoard; but in Germany today it means to take the requisite action to keep body and soul together.

In Oberhausen (and probably elsewhere) secondary schools were closing on Saturdays in October so that the children might go and get potatoes wherever and however they could.

Rolf had not expected to see this crowd; he had brought me to see the returning "hamstering" train from the country districts between Hamm and Hanover. But this crowd, from the easy way they swung their suitcases, was obviously at the beginning of its journey.

Then a loudspeaker announced that the train from Hanover was already over a hundred minutes late.

Almost as he spoke the German voice, announced the night train from Cologne to Hanover was approaching.

The train drew in. Every compartment and every inch of corridor was already crammed, but this did not deter the people on the platform.

Within a few seconds men were already on the roof, on the buffers, between, the coaches, on the running-boards.

The occupants, if charitable, opened the windows. I saw women handing in their babies and husbands their wives, themselves following as best they could.

The Ruhr today, if you like facades, is a place where children play boisterously, in streets that are not unlike Stockport and Bolton, Rochdale and Oldham, if you discount the rubble.

But under it all is hunger and horror: in the hundred and one secret places of the Ruhr, thousands know that the coming winter will bring them little soup, less fuel, and no hope.

Guardian Unlimited © Guardian News and Media Limited 2006

Unquote.

We need to remember that the Atlantic Isles occupy only a small part of the globe. So whether climate change is going one way or another or whether there are just shifts in existing patterns it could happen that we could be in for colder conditions for a while.

Or we might not.