Cyclone Yasi is on its way to the Australian North East Coast.
At present it is looking bad and will add to existing problems.
I hope my cousins in Queensland will be OK.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite/
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/east-coast-battens-down-for-intense-cyclone-yasi/story-e6frg6nf-1225997732544
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/disaster-brews-as-cyclone-stalks-north/16082
Showing posts with label Weather. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Weather. Show all posts
Monday, 31 January 2011
Wednesday, 15 December 2010
Winter Is A'Cumen In
You need to be knocking on a bit to recall the winter of 1962-1963 and more to have much of a memory of 1946-1947. There is material online dealing with this and that, for the most part either personal or some of the worst events.
I was relatively lucky both times. No car to worry about and living within short walking distance of work, shops and other facilities, including rail stations at the time of steam. In those days along the line of supply at all stages there were stocks held and much of what we ate came from shorter distances.
In general economic terms, however, both of these winters came at bad times. The 1947 winter was a particular case. The UK was in serious economic trouble after World War Two. Because there was so little to consume and severe rationing was in place for many goods there was little to cut there. The War had run down public services so badly that there was not much left at the margins.
The consequence was a major setback to the economy, a political disaster for the Labour Party, coming just 18 months after an election where promises had been made. Because of the scale and nature of other problems of the period the impact of the severe weather on several margins of economic activity at the time has never been fully weighed up or judged against these other problems.
The 1962-1963 bad winter was different in scope. However, a Conservative Government that had won re-election by upping spending in 1959 was now in the situation of trying to control and correct rising inflation and major balance of trade issues, amongst other serious problems.
The economic impact of this winter was more severe in some ways. Notably, this was on consumption spending by now a much larger feature of the economy. But it hit badly on those parts of the economy where the government had tried to drive up activity.
In a world without credit cards and banks being obliged to operate strict credit controls the cost of the winter to the ordinary people had a large impact on overall spending. Food prices shot up and household fuel spending rocketed with an immediate impact on other spending.
If we do have a long cold and difficult winter it will not be easy to work out what would be the overall effect in 2010-2011. This is especially the case as so many government and other indices have been manipulated to tell other stories. If the evidence is thin for past winters it may be non-existent for this one.
It may be that all the pessimism about what the weather conditions are likely to be in the next month or two may be wrong. But bad winters can and do happen from time to time. In 1946-47 in some respects we were more ready and had the labour to deal with some of the worst. 1962-1963 was more troublesome in some ways but there was still enough flexibility and expertise to deal with many things.
This time round if it is a bad one at that kind of level it is possible that we no longer have the labour, the expertise or the facilities to deal with it properly. Cameron needs to have a key committee and other government emergency advisers looking at this one if he isn’t going to go the way of Attlee and Macmillan.
I was relatively lucky both times. No car to worry about and living within short walking distance of work, shops and other facilities, including rail stations at the time of steam. In those days along the line of supply at all stages there were stocks held and much of what we ate came from shorter distances.
In general economic terms, however, both of these winters came at bad times. The 1947 winter was a particular case. The UK was in serious economic trouble after World War Two. Because there was so little to consume and severe rationing was in place for many goods there was little to cut there. The War had run down public services so badly that there was not much left at the margins.
The consequence was a major setback to the economy, a political disaster for the Labour Party, coming just 18 months after an election where promises had been made. Because of the scale and nature of other problems of the period the impact of the severe weather on several margins of economic activity at the time has never been fully weighed up or judged against these other problems.
The 1962-1963 bad winter was different in scope. However, a Conservative Government that had won re-election by upping spending in 1959 was now in the situation of trying to control and correct rising inflation and major balance of trade issues, amongst other serious problems.
The economic impact of this winter was more severe in some ways. Notably, this was on consumption spending by now a much larger feature of the economy. But it hit badly on those parts of the economy where the government had tried to drive up activity.
In a world without credit cards and banks being obliged to operate strict credit controls the cost of the winter to the ordinary people had a large impact on overall spending. Food prices shot up and household fuel spending rocketed with an immediate impact on other spending.
If we do have a long cold and difficult winter it will not be easy to work out what would be the overall effect in 2010-2011. This is especially the case as so many government and other indices have been manipulated to tell other stories. If the evidence is thin for past winters it may be non-existent for this one.
It may be that all the pessimism about what the weather conditions are likely to be in the next month or two may be wrong. But bad winters can and do happen from time to time. In 1946-47 in some respects we were more ready and had the labour to deal with some of the worst. 1962-1963 was more troublesome in some ways but there was still enough flexibility and expertise to deal with many things.
This time round if it is a bad one at that kind of level it is possible that we no longer have the labour, the expertise or the facilities to deal with it properly. Cameron needs to have a key committee and other government emergency advisers looking at this one if he isn’t going to go the way of Attlee and Macmillan.
Wednesday, 8 December 2010
Taking The Temperature
Just how bad could the winter be? Wikipedia has entries on “Winter of 1946-1947 In The United Kingdom” as well as “Winter of 1962-1963 In The United Kingdom”. There have been other difficult ones as well, although some more regional in scope.
They deserve reading and some thought. In those days, however, there were far more men to hand to do the shovelling and distribution systems were not just-in-time but had substantial storage facilities as a necessary part of the business.
As the Minister for Fuel and Power, Emmanuel Shinwell found out, if you took the risk that the winter would be a mild one it would not simply be embarrassing, it could destroy the credibility of your party.
At the time when Shinwell was deciding not to press for increased coal production this article appeared in the Manchester Guardian when it was still based in that City. It is not about the United Kingdom, it is about Germany.
Quote:
Guardian
Postwar Germany: a place of horror
JP Hogan
Thursday October 30, 1947
In the square in front of the station, a few lamps shed pale incandescence over the deserted pavements below, emphasising the desolation and dereliction. I floundered over pavement edges with the aid of a torch.
I would shy at the approach of a glowing cigarette-end. I knew, well enough, that human lips held the cigarette, that human feet propelled the wooden shoes.
But there are times when it is hard to believe what one knows; and in Oberhausen I could never be sure that I was not a dead man among the dead in a dead town.
The platform was just light enough for one to see that an enormous crowd of men, women, and children had congregated, with suitcases and portmanteaux and sacks.
They are "hamsterers", town-dwellers who go into the country to "scrounge" potatoes, fruit and vegetables. "Hamstern" means to hoard; but in Germany today it means to take the requisite action to keep body and soul together.
In Oberhausen (and probably elsewhere) secondary schools were closing on Saturdays in October so that the children might go and get potatoes wherever and however they could.
Rolf had not expected to see this crowd; he had brought me to see the returning "hamstering" train from the country districts between Hamm and Hanover. But this crowd, from the easy way they swung their suitcases, was obviously at the beginning of its journey.
Then a loudspeaker announced that the train from Hanover was already over a hundred minutes late.
Almost as he spoke the German voice, announced the night train from Cologne to Hanover was approaching.
The train drew in. Every compartment and every inch of corridor was already crammed, but this did not deter the people on the platform.
Within a few seconds men were already on the roof, on the buffers, between, the coaches, on the running-boards.
The occupants, if charitable, opened the windows. I saw women handing in their babies and husbands their wives, themselves following as best they could.
The Ruhr today, if you like facades, is a place where children play boisterously, in streets that are not unlike Stockport and Bolton, Rochdale and Oldham, if you discount the rubble.
But under it all is hunger and horror: in the hundred and one secret places of the Ruhr, thousands know that the coming winter will bring them little soup, less fuel, and no hope.
Guardian Unlimited © Guardian News and Media Limited 2006
Unquote.
We need to remember that the Atlantic Isles occupy only a small part of the globe. So whether climate change is going one way or another or whether there are just shifts in existing patterns it could happen that we could be in for colder conditions for a while.
Or we might not.
They deserve reading and some thought. In those days, however, there were far more men to hand to do the shovelling and distribution systems were not just-in-time but had substantial storage facilities as a necessary part of the business.
As the Minister for Fuel and Power, Emmanuel Shinwell found out, if you took the risk that the winter would be a mild one it would not simply be embarrassing, it could destroy the credibility of your party.
At the time when Shinwell was deciding not to press for increased coal production this article appeared in the Manchester Guardian when it was still based in that City. It is not about the United Kingdom, it is about Germany.
Quote:
Guardian
Postwar Germany: a place of horror
JP Hogan
Thursday October 30, 1947
In the square in front of the station, a few lamps shed pale incandescence over the deserted pavements below, emphasising the desolation and dereliction. I floundered over pavement edges with the aid of a torch.
I would shy at the approach of a glowing cigarette-end. I knew, well enough, that human lips held the cigarette, that human feet propelled the wooden shoes.
But there are times when it is hard to believe what one knows; and in Oberhausen I could never be sure that I was not a dead man among the dead in a dead town.
The platform was just light enough for one to see that an enormous crowd of men, women, and children had congregated, with suitcases and portmanteaux and sacks.
They are "hamsterers", town-dwellers who go into the country to "scrounge" potatoes, fruit and vegetables. "Hamstern" means to hoard; but in Germany today it means to take the requisite action to keep body and soul together.
In Oberhausen (and probably elsewhere) secondary schools were closing on Saturdays in October so that the children might go and get potatoes wherever and however they could.
Rolf had not expected to see this crowd; he had brought me to see the returning "hamstering" train from the country districts between Hamm and Hanover. But this crowd, from the easy way they swung their suitcases, was obviously at the beginning of its journey.
Then a loudspeaker announced that the train from Hanover was already over a hundred minutes late.
Almost as he spoke the German voice, announced the night train from Cologne to Hanover was approaching.
The train drew in. Every compartment and every inch of corridor was already crammed, but this did not deter the people on the platform.
Within a few seconds men were already on the roof, on the buffers, between, the coaches, on the running-boards.
The occupants, if charitable, opened the windows. I saw women handing in their babies and husbands their wives, themselves following as best they could.
The Ruhr today, if you like facades, is a place where children play boisterously, in streets that are not unlike Stockport and Bolton, Rochdale and Oldham, if you discount the rubble.
But under it all is hunger and horror: in the hundred and one secret places of the Ruhr, thousands know that the coming winter will bring them little soup, less fuel, and no hope.
Guardian Unlimited © Guardian News and Media Limited 2006
Unquote.
We need to remember that the Atlantic Isles occupy only a small part of the globe. So whether climate change is going one way or another or whether there are just shifts in existing patterns it could happen that we could be in for colder conditions for a while.
Or we might not.
Wednesday, 20 October 2010
Blocking Highs
As the political debate reaches new “lows” perhaps we should think of some “highs”.
Before the Clean Air Acts of 1955 and later, given the air pollution then in urban areas the weather conditions could have a critical effect on health. A long “blocking high” which meant light or little wind, fog and often persistent low cloud would give air that was literally filthy in the age of coal.
Everything was covered in soot and other particles. Keeping clean was difficult, the smell was pervasive and the fatigue induced debilitating to the many people who had lung or other problems. As the days wore on it simply became worse and worse.
It was in December 1952 that for a few days “The Great Smog” reduced Central London to a standstill when the air was thick with filth. I was there a couple of weeks afterwards and it still stank and many people were almost shell shocked.
The authorities moved quickly to fiddle the figures, reducing the period when deaths could be attributed to the illness contracted at that time. Had it been left as before then the figures of deaths given would have been a great deal higher.
What is not known is how many people were seriously damaged but survived for some years or how many people had their lives shortened in later life by the long term effects.
It is my view that we are coming closer to something like this with the air pollution now evident. Visiting London nowadays means encountering air quality that is often quite bad. The problem is that the measures for this are related to a limited number of particles, notably traffic and industrial.
Traffic is certainly a major factor, but what is being missed is the gathering amount of other substances from persons and the use of many devices in most buildings outputting forms of gas and particles.
The many air conditioning systems pump out heat and bad air. Also the huge increase in the number of food outlets add to the problem, a street full of them can really test the sense of smell, brain and body.
Yet much of this pollution is more dangerous nowadays because it cannot be washed out. The chemical content of personal products and air fresheners is made to be far longer lasting and designed to carry distances. It is claimed to withstand both dry cleaning and frequent washing. Worse still it adheres and transfers easily from one surface to another.
In global terms it does not take much of a change in weather patterns to move systems about from year to year or over periods of several years. In the South East corner of England, possibly with many of the most polluted urban areas we have had a number of blocking highs this summer.
This may have delighted the manic heat seeking weather forecasters but it has been bad news for those who prefer the clean fresh wind and wet air from the lows.
I wonder if we are due for a winter with a number of periods of blocking highs? It is a few years since the last one and longer still to a worse. If so what will be their consequences? Not only will there be bad air pollution but more heat and other output will worsen the problems in urban areas.
There is a potential health disaster in the making, and Boris Bikes are not the answer.
Before the Clean Air Acts of 1955 and later, given the air pollution then in urban areas the weather conditions could have a critical effect on health. A long “blocking high” which meant light or little wind, fog and often persistent low cloud would give air that was literally filthy in the age of coal.
Everything was covered in soot and other particles. Keeping clean was difficult, the smell was pervasive and the fatigue induced debilitating to the many people who had lung or other problems. As the days wore on it simply became worse and worse.
It was in December 1952 that for a few days “The Great Smog” reduced Central London to a standstill when the air was thick with filth. I was there a couple of weeks afterwards and it still stank and many people were almost shell shocked.
The authorities moved quickly to fiddle the figures, reducing the period when deaths could be attributed to the illness contracted at that time. Had it been left as before then the figures of deaths given would have been a great deal higher.
What is not known is how many people were seriously damaged but survived for some years or how many people had their lives shortened in later life by the long term effects.
It is my view that we are coming closer to something like this with the air pollution now evident. Visiting London nowadays means encountering air quality that is often quite bad. The problem is that the measures for this are related to a limited number of particles, notably traffic and industrial.
Traffic is certainly a major factor, but what is being missed is the gathering amount of other substances from persons and the use of many devices in most buildings outputting forms of gas and particles.
The many air conditioning systems pump out heat and bad air. Also the huge increase in the number of food outlets add to the problem, a street full of them can really test the sense of smell, brain and body.
Yet much of this pollution is more dangerous nowadays because it cannot be washed out. The chemical content of personal products and air fresheners is made to be far longer lasting and designed to carry distances. It is claimed to withstand both dry cleaning and frequent washing. Worse still it adheres and transfers easily from one surface to another.
In global terms it does not take much of a change in weather patterns to move systems about from year to year or over periods of several years. In the South East corner of England, possibly with many of the most polluted urban areas we have had a number of blocking highs this summer.
This may have delighted the manic heat seeking weather forecasters but it has been bad news for those who prefer the clean fresh wind and wet air from the lows.
I wonder if we are due for a winter with a number of periods of blocking highs? It is a few years since the last one and longer still to a worse. If so what will be their consequences? Not only will there be bad air pollution but more heat and other output will worsen the problems in urban areas.
There is a potential health disaster in the making, and Boris Bikes are not the answer.
Saturday, 9 October 2010
Blow The Wind Southerly
October, time for a bit of wind and fresh air. Perhaps we may get more than we really want. The diagram above comes from today’s (Saturday) US Geological Service web site and shows the estimated track of Hurricane Otto that has not long formed in the Atlantic.
The USGS is always careful in its estimates, as we know the media and public can be very impatient of variations and do not accept uncertainty as a necessary condition of being.
So whether this one becomes weaker, or stronger, or disperses, or shifts direction we will have to see during the course of the week. I shall be watching.
What would be interesting is that if it does come into the English Channel as the same time as seasonal high tides with perhaps a strong northerly on the fringe then it could be very exciting. At 150 feet above sea level I am alright.
It could be fun though to see people rowing in Parliament Square.
All together now:
Jolly boating weather,
And a hay harvest breeze,
Blade on the feather,
Shade off the trees,
Swing swing together,
With your bodies between your knees,
Swing swing together,
With your bodies between your knees.
The USGS is always careful in its estimates, as we know the media and public can be very impatient of variations and do not accept uncertainty as a necessary condition of being.
So whether this one becomes weaker, or stronger, or disperses, or shifts direction we will have to see during the course of the week. I shall be watching.
What would be interesting is that if it does come into the English Channel as the same time as seasonal high tides with perhaps a strong northerly on the fringe then it could be very exciting. At 150 feet above sea level I am alright.
It could be fun though to see people rowing in Parliament Square.
All together now:
Jolly boating weather,
And a hay harvest breeze,
Blade on the feather,
Shade off the trees,
Swing swing together,
With your bodies between your knees,
Swing swing together,
With your bodies between your knees.
Sunday, 20 December 2009
Washington DC In Crisis - Eight Inches Of Snow
The picture above is of Francis Scott Key Bridge over the Potomac in Washington DC, USA taken in the last few hours.
For comments on this please see my post of yesterday, Saturday 19th December, “England In Crisis – Four Inches Of Snow”, and make your own amendments to match.
In the USA they like to have things bigger and better.
For comments on this please see my post of yesterday, Saturday 19th December, “England In Crisis – Four Inches Of Snow”, and make your own amendments to match.
In the USA they like to have things bigger and better.
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