The oil business is a very complicated one in which prediction is often short on certainty and long on political troubles. One of the issues on which the Scots Independence Referendum debate is based is who owns the North Sea oil rights and to what purpose.
Necessarily, the respective arguments make many assumptions about the future and what might develop. This post in Automatic Earth caught my eye and gave pause for thought in what it was saying. It goes on to discuss other issues as well
If this line of thinking were to be correct it might be that the politicians involved in the present debate should not be arguing about who makes the decisions and gets the profits.
They should be debating who is going to pay out the massive subsidies needed to ensure local production of oil and gas.