On Sunday in
the Lower Saxony Regional elections resulted in a complicated situation. The ruling Christian Democratic Union lost
votes, a good many to the more right wing Free Democrats. Germany
However, the Social Democrats did not do as well as hoped but with the support of the Green party have a very narrow majority. In short Angela Merkel’s lot have taken some flak but none of them hit their targets.
As this electoral outing was hoped to give some positive indications of what might happen come the German general election in September, it is now all still to play for with a wide range of uncertainty as to who will govern in October.
All I can predict with certainty is that little notice will be taken of the implications for Europe or the
in our media until after the event unless there is something spectacular that
The risk is that the complications arising and the moves
makes to deal with unfolding situations in Europe,
at home may induce something spectacular.
There are also “black swan” events to worry about.
Russia gets much more snow and things there,
including effects on their oil and gas supplies, go badly this could have
unforeseen effects across Europe as well. Europe as we
have known it may suddenly change involuntarily.
In Project Syndicate, Professor Nouriel Roubini, who famously or infamously, called the 2008 Crash, Dr. Doom in person, thinks that 2013 is going to be sticky all round. There are serious risks to stability but no obvious contender for a trigger event.
It could have been so different. In 1837 when Queen
ascended the throne the opportunity was not taken by Parliament then to abandon
male primogeniture in the succession. It
might have made a difference. Victoria
Her first child was a daughter, also Victoria, who married a Prussian Prince Frederick, becoming Crown Princess and Empress when he succeeded in 1888. Sadly, he lasted only 99 days, already suffering from cancer. Their first child, Wilhelm succeeded him as Kaiser.
died in January
1901, her daughter, Victoria, was still alive, but died in August of the same
year. If she had succeeded as the first
child, she would have been Queen-Empress of the Victoria British
Empire for a few months.
Then in 1901, Kaiser Wilhelm II would also have become King William V of the British Empire and Emperor of
. Not only would India Britain
and Hannover become united again, but there could
have been a British-German political and perhaps trading union.
What kind of world might we have had now? Think of a world where neither the
might achieve the predominance they did later; and there would have been no
need for a European Union. Russia