Sunday 19 August 2012

Keeping In Tune With The Times

The Euro morass has gone beyond the capability of almost anyone to understand it.  As the situation seems to be changing day by day keeping track of it has become impossible for most ordinary commentators, let alone experts or those immured in government or other official departments.

For this reason one has to be shy not only of making predictions but of trying to say or claim things with any certain authority.  What is worse is that you cannot trust any of the figures you see and nor can you trust any of the major players.

Amongst the few probabilities is that the UK contribution to dealing with it will be about as useful as using a wet flannel on a vehicle engine fire.  The first priority for the US in Washington DC is to try to hold the line until after the election.

Within Europe itself the key seems to be with Germany.  But is this Germany itself or Germany moving to be the lead element in an EU becoming a super state by default?  There is talk enough about such a Greater Germany, but many Germans do not want it because of the cost and all the unseen liabilities.

France is allegedly more broke than Spain but the need to keep its mega banks in being disguises this.  Spain certainly is broke as a consequence of making most of the mistakes to be made in the book. 

Italy, benefitting or not from a government imposed by the EU is facing a choice between subjection, bust or Berlusconi.  That the last could be the preferred option of the people is not good news.  Greece, Ireland and Portugal are all still in the mire and unlikely to be out of it for some time.

Around the web, but only in some specialist media forms there is a great deal of expert analysis and opinion.  But because of the situation even those best equipped to have a measure of understanding struggle to stay in the game.

Could they all manage to flounder on in the hope that something will turn up or one of the many meetings come up with a workable set of propositions?  Not really, because Europe is not on its own, it is plugged in to a global network where there are other elements whose failures might have a disproportionate impact.

There are certainly all the pre-conditions in place for a serious collapse to occur.  The issue is whether the situation is now in a critical phase where some event or related occurrences could cause the fuses to blow again, black swan or otherwise.

I wish I knew, but I wish even more that someone knew and could do something coherent and effective.

And the band plays on.

1 comment:

  1. "I wish I knew, but I wish even more that someone knew and could do something coherent and effective."

    The problem is identifying the people who know, because to identify them you have to know they are right and why. In other words, you have to be one of them.

    Oh dear - I need a drink!