Finding Gaddafi Losing Megrahi

If there is a serious search on for Colonel Muammar Gaddafi why don’t they look in the obvious place? In a particular quiet, sometimes not so quiet, London square resides an old friend of the Colonel who is deeply in his debt, possibly, both monetary and personal.

Where better to hole up for a while? It is only a short distance from the Royal Albert Hall so perhaps he will be able to take in The Last Night Of The Proms in one of the better boxes. He could dress up like some of those in the Arena and be impossible to spot.

Not only will he be amongst friends but there are many oligarchs in the area who would welcome him as an invaluable source of advice on tax avoidance and use of sovereign funds.

His friend’s wife is a renowned legal expert on Human Rights. All he needs to do is find a pliant young lady with a nice cat and then plead that he is in a relationship that is intended to be permanent. That is, until the next young lady comes along, perhaps with more cats.

As for Megrahi, it might be best to leave him alone. If he does have what we think he has it is handling very damaged goods. Better he shuffles off the mortal coil in the bosom of his family than under guard in a UK hospital from dehydration or starvation. If anything were to go wrong it would be another PR disaster in the Arab world.

There are plenty of medical things to consider as well with this complaint and they can happen suddenly. One or two of them are highly dangerous, difficult to predict and sometimes to determine after death with certainty.

As someone who was probably under the flight path of the Pan Am airliner that went down in Lockerbie around 30 to 40 minutes before it exploded I would like nothing better to see anyone involved facing full life. But taking risks with Megrahi could have a lot of unintended consequences.

Back in the 1950’s I spent a few weeks in a bed sit in Connaught Square but moved on. It cost £4 a week and there were cheaper ones available in better areas. At that time the square had too many crooks and whores in residence for my liking.

When In A Hole Stop Digging

In the “Telegraph” James Delingpole presents a succinct case for why we should not be in Libya and why it may be a very bad idea to continue.

 http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100081828/10-reasons-why-we-shouldnt-be-in-libya/

A post from November 2009 reminds me that this one has been brewing for a little time now and guess who we might have to thank?

 http://thecynicaltendency.blogspot.com/2009/11/lord-mandelson-shooting-party.html

It will all end badly because there is no other way for it to end.

Libya Has A Lot Of History

On January 30th this year I posted “The Scramble for Africa Mark Five” and ended the post:

Quote:

Now that cheap oil is coming to an end and food prices and other essential commodities are rising in price the fat is literally in the fire. It may not be long before there is a Scramble Mark Six as existing states begin to collapse and all the old tribal, ethnic and religious differences begin to take hold.

And the mass migrations will begin again.

Unquote.

There have been observers who have noted that Libya is a relatively recent addition to the Nation States listings. It was formed in 1951 by bringing together Tripolitania, Cyrenaica and Fezzan, territories in which differing tribal groups and others reside. Earlier in the mid 20th Century the area had been under Italian rule.

Around the cities of the coast a number of people are descended from slaves brought from one place or another including the Atlantic Isles. Many of us will have distant cousins amongst the population. It has a long and complicated history and war and upheaval have happened many times.

Over two millennia ago The Romans took over from the Carthaginians after a series of major wars. It was Cato The Elder, 234-149 BC who liked to say words to the effect that “Carthago delenda est” that is that Carthage should be destroyed. Then the Romans were displaced by the Vandals who were equally vigorous in their pursuit of wars.

Later others came along bringing with them Islam and The Ottoman Empire which collapsed in the early 20th Century. The USA has been here before in the Barbary Wars 1801 to 1805 and in 1815, not long after British troops torched Washington DC in August 1814. In that British Expedition to the USA, slavery was also a difficult issue and the original documents from The Horse Guards show confusion of thinking.

In 1943 my Uncle Jim broke a leg playing football in Tripoli which was lucky because he avoided invading Sicily and Italy. He was certainly a “Lucky Jim” because as a “Shiner” with the 10th Royal Hussars he had been driving one of the first tanks into Tobruk after El Alamein. A while after the War I was with the 7th Armoured Division for National Service along with a few remaining veterans.

This military intervention is going to be a difficult business to resolve. My first thoughts that the immediate use of Gaddafi’s tanks will have run them to the limit that their tracks could take and leave them sitting targets for air strikes has seemed to be correct.

But I am not making many prophecies. Unless we are very lucky it could result in an even more complex and difficult situation than either Iraq or Afghanistan and with even direr consequences.

One early effect could be that George Osborne’s budget could go up in flames as well as the former state of Libya.

Libya, Follow The Money

The suggested figures are coming out for the size of the fortunes of the Gaddafi family. As expected it makes those for Mubarak and the Tunisians look cheap. One quoted on Automatic Earth from the USA is coming in at £170 billion and the post there looks at inequalities with pie charts. We only need to look at the TV to see that all those fleeing Libya know the reality of this.

So who, what, why, where and when? Unluckily the journalists in our media have not been paying much attention to these considerations. In the meantime the end game may be near. When UK politicians start the chest beating and howling along with their US equivalents then you know that the something is nigh.

As we have seen, Cameron had done a Brown in skiving off abroad when the heat was on and then coming back to let us all know how positive he can be when the time is ripe to try for some credit.

As with Mubarak in Egypt the Western powers have given the Gaddafi clan just about enough time to arrange their affairs before retiring. But what may happen to The Colonel? The departure of the nurses may mean something.

If a man has been living close to death his state of mind may consider martyrdom as a preferred option. Especially if it helps protects the family, their genes and their monies.

If the money is anything like the suggested figures then the developed West in its parlous state will not want much disruption and new problems in the markets. These are already looking intricate with a number of increasingly difficult issues to handle around the world in terms of commodities and the solvency of governments.

Indeed, the “freeze” of Gaddafi assets in the UK may yield something. There are bound to be some figures in what amount to local household accounts and transfer funds that can be trumpeted as successes. Even these might amount to “virtual” cash that does not really exist and is essentially a convenient fiction.

Out there however is a lot of investment money and major holdings in a number of companies. So what actually does the Gaddafi clan own and how important is it to either to the states in which those companies function or to their financial systems?

This brings us in turn to which political leaders and groups in which places have found themselves obliged to take account of Libya and its rulers over the last couple of decades.

One country would be one which has its own network of locations around the world through which money and holdings and trusts might be funded and investments made and circulated through the world financial system.

We would be looking for politicians who have either become rich recently or who have already within their substantial family trusts certain types of investments.

Names come to mind, why am I singing quietly, “In the town where I was born…..”?

Libya, Another Story

While the tragedy unfolds and tens of thousands flee there are stories emerging that make you wonder. Below is something from The Times of Malta:

Quote:

The "voluptuous" Ukrainian nurse US diplomats believe accompanies Libyan ruler Muammar Gaddafi is about to return home to Kiev, her daughter said in an interview published today.

US diplomatic cables disclosed by the WikiLeaks website suggest that the Libyan leader is reliant on a small team of Ukrainian nurses and particularly a "voluptuous blonde" identified as Galyna Kolotnytska.

The woman's daughter, Tatyana, told Ukraine's Segodnya daily that her mother has been shocked by the violence raging in Libya and is planning to return to her suburban Kiev residence.

"Mom called yesterday. She says that she is in Tripoli," Tatyana Kolotnytska told the daily.

"There is shooting, fighting and everything else they show on television. She spoke in a calm voice, asked us not to worry, and said she will be home soon."

The diplomatic cables, which were sent by diplomats in Tripoli to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2009, reveal that Gaddafi is almost always accompanied by Kolotnytska.

"Gaddafi relies heavily on his long-time Ukrainian nurse, Galyna Kolotnytska, who has been described as a 'voluptuous blonde'," said one dispatch using the US State Department's standard spelling for the Libyan strongman.

"Of the rumoured staff of four Ukrainian nurses that cater to the Leader's health and well-being, XXX emphasized ... that Gaddafi cannot travel without Kolotnytska, as she alone 'knows his routine'," the dispatch said.

Kolotnytska's daughter said she did not know if her mother was currently with Gaddafi, who has offered to arm civilians to defeat a popular revolt that poses the worst threat to his four-decade rule.

She said only that her mother left for Libya nine years ago and confirmed that "there are other Ukrainian nurses" surrounding Gaddafi .

"For some reason, he does not trust the Libyan women," the daughter said.

Unquote.

It is difficult to think of a comment that makes sense.

To The Shores Of Tripoli

Grannie always used to say that a man is judged by his friends. Quite why she used to fix her gaze on me when she said that is another issue. Just as my claims “Honest, it wasn’t me, it was my friend” used to cut little ice when people came to complain.

The Libyan crisis and all the horrors that are going on there as well as the stories emerging are causing embarrassment in a number of places and for people who would rather not have old memories awakened. The Colonel is beginning to find as I did that when a window was smashed all the so-called friends took to their heels as fast as possible.

Amongst the many and various friends made (or bought) by the regime in Libya are some interesting connections. One institution that could hardly deny it is the London School of Economics which not only educated some of the family and extended a welcome to the Colonel but took his shilling. One of the Governors and leading alumni is a Cherie Blair, remember her?

Then there are the familiar figures from the previous Government, Gordon and his grim faced bunch of hoods leading the way. What exactly were Thin Ed’ and Fat Ed’ doing in relation to all the comings and goings of the regime in Libya? Not to mention all those corporate people and financial agents enmeshed in the government and involved in contracts and the network of payments systems.

Meanwhile Cameron has decided to cut a stern and positive figure. What and who amongst the Tories there is to dig up in connection with Libya is another question and when the real row starts we might learn. It may be that the long years of Labour rule meant The Colonel did not bother much with Tories but it is unlikely that he did not hedge his bets.

The fall out from all this in the UK and maybe Ireland could be spectacular and Cameron probably is trying to cover his bets as quickly as possible. However, when he suggests that some sort of military intervention is possible it is time to worry.

As we know, when things were politically sticky Blair was always eager to send the troops off to some convenient place to distract attention and to buy favours. But Cameron needs to be careful. The Armed Forces may no longer be up to what is going to be needed there.

When Churchill took the saluting stand at Tripoli in 1943 and the 51st Highland Division marched past one of the units was singing what he took to be a patriotic song.

It was in fact the old folk ditty “Four and Twenty Virgins Came Down From Inverness.” The rest I leave to your imagination. Montgomery thought it wiser not to tell the Prime Minister in the circumstances.

The Americans have their own song about Tripoli, “From The Halls of Montezuma To The Shores of Tripoli” about freeing American’s from foreign pirates. It is the marching song of their Marines.

If there is to be any military intervention, Cameron should leave it to the US Marines and I hope the Generals tell him the truth.