Thursday, 8 December 2016
Carney's Banking Bust
We have been told, no less, by the Guv' of the Bank of England, Calamity Carney, that the last decade's since 2006 missing growth and messy economics is the worst since the 1860's. Oh really?
First, before making comparisons, ensure what is being compared is comparable. Second, make sure that you do not stick to narrow estimates of figures within complex political and economic structures. Third, what the figures say and what was actually going on may raise other cogent questions.
Is he saying, for example, that the periods of 1910-1920 and 1940-1950 were far superior because no doubt of high levels of QE, government spending etc and economic activity? I have little doubt that those alive then might have cause to disagree.
In the 40's my parents earned good money. The trouble was you could not spend it on food, clothes and other luxuries. All those guns and battle tanks and airplanes were reserved for select elite groups. Their use required high levels of replacement etc. which meant work for the factories.
As for the 1860's, just what were the economics of Japan? In China there was major civil war, check Chinese Gordon. In the USA they had a Civil War. In Africa, I suspect hard economic data was hard to calculate. Germany and Italy were just in the making, France was broke because of a high cost Emperor and Spain was poverty stricken.
Back in dear old Blighty the speculators in railway shares, bills of exchange, gold and silver and metals that did wonders for the money figures were having a high old time. The sudden advance in technology notably the compounding of steam engines was leading to major spending on uprating existing maritime and land systems of communications.
The Overend Gurney banking crash of 1866 resulted which caused a lot of trouble, but the City and economy recovered surprisingly quickly. The provinces then were a lot more detached from London than now. Also, possibly, because The City then was the major player in the world game and could rely on its own resources.
And Skittles, Catherine Walters, courtesan extraordinary and Scouser, had an affair with Edward, Prince of Wales, that caused Queen Victoria some grief, and boosted media activity.