Tuesday, 7 February 2012
Another Boom Another Bust
For those of us who go round just looking for trouble there is enough going on at the moment to keep us happy in the main media. The big freeze is stretching the gas supplies to the limit, our government almost in collapse, Syria, earthquakes, elections already going wrong, Iran and more Iran, Greece and terrorism.
On that last point it is just as well the Human Rights Act and our present benefits system wasn’t in place in 1945, because if Himmler, Goebbels and families had made it to Mayfair and claimed asylum they would be housed and drawing full support.
Moreover, had Britain attempted to return them to Germany for trial then the government would have been over ruled on the grounds that there was evidence to the effect that troops of the 11th Armoured Division had roughed up some of the former German guards at the Belsen-Bergen Concentration Camp after they had been caught stealing food intended for the inmates.
Back to the present, however, there were a couple of links today that suggest that all is far from well and could be markers for serious global financial problems. The first is to do with the Baltic Dry Index in Zero Hedge. Usually, if that goes bad and shipping is then laid up to any great extent, run for cover.
The second is in Oil Drum and is a long discussion on the arcane issues of pricing shale oil and supply. This is a difficult area that not many understand, least of all civil servants and politicians. The nub of the argument is that there has been an investment boom with vast sums poured in but market prices are less than production and financial costs.
It this commentator is right then there could be a bad bust in a sensitive and critical market. Again, run for cover, elbowing those fleeing the Baltic Dry Index out of the way as you go.
If my cold does not go away then expect a major volcanic eruption.