Books Do Furnish A Room

Since 1970 around eight to nine age groups have seen increasing proportions of each cohort disappearing from the labour market.  In 1971 the school leaving age went up to 16 and in the last forty five years the numbers staying until later and then going on to one form of higher education or another, or floating on things like gap years has increased.

Certainly, in the past a number left home, but many stayed there, even when in higher education.  We do not know the figures.  In the towns where higher education was provided, the students were often in halls of residence or such or in multiple occupation lodgings or sometimes flats often provided by the institution or a charity.

In the last decade of the 20th and into the 21st Century in many towns and places, the demand for housing for students has increased immensely.  It has become a key feature of the residential housing market in those areas and the increase in provision has very largely been in the private sector.

To a great extent it was provided by local owners both established rental companies and the rising numbers who saw Buy To Let as a main chance way of investing.  In many ways student housing not only looked good on the figures but with its natural turnover and identifiable customers had advantages over other sectors.

There have been developments little recognised among the experts in the property market though very recently.  That is the big boys have arrived in the student market.  Two mentioned to me CRM Students and STUDYINN, Boutique (!) Student Accommodation are present in London and a number of towns.

These are intended to provide accommodation that is satisfactory together often with added facilities for leisure etc.  In their larger blocks it is not houses they are taking over and changing, it can be offices, shopping blocks and other properties.  So long as it is in the right place, planning agreed and conversion not too costly, it is a very attractive financial proposition.

This means that commercial property is becoming housing implying jobs gone.  This is not for families etc. but students and this means student debt.  When the debtors finally seek work, possibly, their spending power and perhaps ability to purchase their own home seriously reduced, so needing to rent, they can only rent very likely in an inflated market or return home as some seem to be doing.

Added factors in the property market are increasing demand in the rental sector for a variety of reasons.  One is the number of migrants needed to fill the large gap in the labour market left by those who have become students.

Then there are the "investment" buyers, sometimes honest, sometimes not, who prefer to leave the properties empty or little used, perhaps someone with a caretaker function. It has also increased a great deal and more than we think.

This is the way the economy goes and it has become an important part of the increases in GDP and money flows generally.  The question is how far is it sustainable and if not when will it bump up against reality.  Looking at the picture, could we have a bear market?

But then, when either in student or ordinary rental housing what you do not want is things that go bump in the night.
                                                                                                                                                 

Any Port In A Storm

It was not my intention to comment on the situation in and around the migrant camp at Calais because of the extensive coverage in the media and on the net.

It is the result of decisions made too late, that did not consider the realities of the developing crisis and was determined by dated beliefs and ideas rather than any proper analysis of the situation.

Calais was once English when The Pale was taken after the Battle of Crecy in 1346 as this list from Wikipedia of those appointed by the Crown to control the Pale of Calais shows.

It is a list of the great and the good, which suggests that it was a valued possession. During the time of King Henry VIII an ancestor was one of them, so this is personal.

The sorry story of its loss in 1558 under Queen Mary I, is told by this Wikipedia page if you are up for the history.  It is claimed that she said that when she died the name Calais would be found engraved on her heart again indicating its importance.

If the matter of who really owns Calais were to be put to the European Court of Human Rights by an interested party, given their unpredictable decisions there might be a chance of it being restored to England. But whose human rights?

This video and translation is around the web giving the view of a lady of Calais who is talking about the experience of herself and  other residents.  It is at odds with many media items and claims that the French citizens there are being told to stop complaining and to shut up.  They feel deserted by the Government of France.

It is a humanitarian disaster for them in that the destruction of their way of life and town has been imposed on it without their consent and that they have had the protection of ordinary policing and law withdrawn.  This could create an interesting situation.

Quite simply, if the citizens of The Pale wanted to submit to The Crown and become part of England and this could be brought about, then the migrants could be gone from their camps and to wherever they might go across The Channel without hindrance.

Perhaps a number could go up to Crewe to settle and to mediate between the Eastern Europeans and the natives, a complicated mixture of English, Welsh, Scots and Irish origin.

Leading To Leave

It is not looking good, if it ever has been in the last few years.  Those of the doom and gloom schools of thought have more than enough news and information for them to ply their trades.  In the USA a good dump of snow in New Hampshire should confuse a few issues at the Primary elections.

Zero Hedge along with Secular Investor suggest that Deutsche Bank is in trouble and could trigger a great many adverse financial effects.  One relatively minor matter in the great scheme of things is that the bank has a lien on the freeholds of a great many UK leasehold properties.  This could get ugly if as in the USA title to them disappears down the financial computer plugholes.

But it is the EU debate that has had a great deal more coverage.  One serious concern is the lack of clear leadership and direction in the Leave campaign.  Despite the views of many voters it is feared that the initiative could be lost to the big hitters of the In groups who have the leaders of both the Government and Opposition in their pockets.

Despite their obvious interest and own position in the Europe matter we cannot expect The Royals to mix it and to attempt to lead the Out's.  But where I ask is our aristocracy, in particular the Dukes?  They are nowhere to be seen or heard.

The idea of inherited status, wealth and title is out of fashion in these democratic days when we worship celebrities and sportsmen but they are still entitled to have a view and speak their opinions and in something that is extra-Parliamentary to lead if others will follow.

Here are four lists of Dukes, Marquesses, Earls and Viscounts, not complete but just picked out, not quite at random, in a swift look at the titles.  Of the Earls many are left out.  There could be errors in that the present holders are not able to lead but there ought to be some who might.

There are names among them that shout out from our history, the descendants of men who did not and would not surrender.

Dukes:

Beaufort, Wellington, Marlborough, Northumberland, Hamilton, Argyll, Gordon, Fife, Westminster, Sutherland, Manchester, Devonshire, Buccleugh, Bedford, St. Albans, Grafton, Rutland.

Marquesses:

Anglesey, Zetland,  Bristol, Ailesbury, Bute, Bath, Salisbury, Huntley, Hertford.

Earls:

Nelson, Jellicoe, Alexander, Effingham, Grey, Vane, Kimberley, Leicester, Jermyn, Cawdor, Lichfield, Strafford, Wharncliffe, Attlee, Lytton, Selborne, Liverpool, Rosebery, Balfour, Peel.

Viscounts:

Montgomery, Alanbrooke, Slim, Trenchard, Hood, St. Vincent, Falmouth, Falkland, Hereford, Bolingbroke, Knollys, Gough, Long.

Where are they when you need them, especially as the Europe vote could be a damned close run thing.

Peace At Any Price

The reaction in the media to Prime Minister Cameron's deal or no deal Euro caper has been interesting.  Yet again we have a PM who is looking like a gone man.  But if after being elected you then say I'm off in three years and leaving it to George you are asking for trouble especially when seeking favours.

One common theme is that his return from Europe evokes the memory of  Neville Chamberlain who between 1937 and 1940 was PM.  In his personal handling of foreign affairs he failed to prevent war with Germany.  The picture that we all know is of him at Heston Airport in 1938 displaying a piece of paper and claiming "peace in our time".

But the picture shows a remarkable event.  In his late 60's he had taken to the sky to go to Hitler to attempt to prevent war in Europe.  This was astonishing given the etiquette and conventions of diplomacy in that age and especially when flying was a far riskier business.  Cameron's efforts are more like those of a charity chugger in the street on a cold wet day.   

Chamberlain did not enter Parliament until he was 49 years of age, the same age as Cameron is now.  Until the First World War he had been concerned with business, local affairs and family and had a reputation for probity and hard work.  Despite a late start he soon was given major responsibilities in government.

To what degree his ideas and policies in the 1920's and 30's until becoming Prime Minister are right or wrong is for debate.  But in 1937 he followed Stanley Baldwin into office having had a full and respected career in senior positions.

He was a safe pair of hands at the time.  Churchill was too wild, distrusted and heavily in debt, Eden too young but Chamberlain had the edge on Oliver Stanley and Duff Cooper, two "might have been" men lost to history.

This was a period when Britain wanted peace and it was clear that a large part of the electorate had that opinion.  There were troubles enough around the Empire and in Ireland and at home and the First World War was a vivid memory of the risks of Europe.  For many Hitler was a joke German with a vicious streak.  Those who did see him as a liar and a serious danger were a minority.

Chamberlain's problem and the source of his misreading Hitler was that he was a businessman cum politician who had been good at doing deals and fixing things.  He could usually find a way round.  Hitler did not do deals.  He might make promises but he would not honour them and Ribbentrop had told him Britain would not fight.

Chamberlain tried and failed to do what he had been used to doing.  He compounded this by a hesitancy in declaring war.  Given that the British armed forces were both unready and not equipped for any major European conflict, a situation he had inherited and begun to correct, it is not surprising.

                                                              

But this together with how badly things went in the first year and the shock of modern war and the effect on everyone and then the aftermath have meant that he is remembered as a failure.  So we forget his profound sense of duty and application and service to a greater cause.

Cameron is another kind of failure. Essentially,  a media spinner who had risen without trace as a special adviser he managed to swing the vote for Conservative leadership in 2005 on the basis of his image.  He had never held senior office and it shows.  He hopes to scoot off to became a travelling celebrity doing PR for the finance trades.

The coalition situation meant that fudge and nudge was the only way to work.  Now as Prime Minister he has little idea of how to run anything and his deal making skills are far too limited.  You need to know the detail and do the homework.  Cameron doesn't.

If those who study the markets are right and real problems arise, let along all the other issues in Europe and the world we may well find how little he can really to do and will pay the price.  Cameron has not really fixed anything or done any serious deal for our benefit.  And there is no record of achievement in government whatsoever.

He is not in the same league as Neville Chamberlain and never will be.  Chamberlain died in Heckfield in 1940 and there is a memorial to him in St. Michael's Church.  Across the aisle are other memorials of people connected in various ways to the Earl's of Home, the Duke of Wellington, Charles James Fox and the Grey's of Howick.

He is in good company.

Diversity By Numbers

In the Huffington Post David Miliband is quoted as saying that if we take in a lot more refugees it only amounts to 40 a year in each constituency, a political map rather than an administrative one.

In August 1972 when Idi Amin expelled the Ugandan Asians it was one family per parish to give it the imprimatur of faith. It did not work out like that.  One city that took in more than most was Leicester, now one of the UK urban areas said now to have people defined as white British to be in a minority.

This tale from The Mail on Thursday says that a high street there is an example of how extensive diversity is.  This is not a town centre street it is one of several in the inner ring of housing on a busy route out of town, the road to Coventry.

Then today Friday the story is expanded to show location and give some reference to the past.  As it happens this was a patch that I knew personally between 1940 and 1970 and indeed lived for a time on one of the side streets depicted.

It was the ground floor of a late Victorian or Edwardian building at £3 per week.  Zoopla now estimates the rental at £1820 a month for the house as student housing.  Probably the demand for student housing is as substantial here as in many towns arising from the huge expansion of higher education.

The inference in the articles and indeed by academics that what has happened represents "diversity" and before this came to be the local population was a strongly homogeneous group of like minded nationalist people all of one ethnic type.

But it wasn't like that at all. "Diversity" may, in our modern world, be assumed and purported to be solely ethnic with very limited criteria but in the past there were many and various serious divisions in the way people regarded each other.

There was a complex of pecking orders and distinctions that you knew and lived by.  A basic one was religion.  The Anglicans and the Dissenters were not the same and each sector was divided in itself.  High and Low on the one hand and among the Dissenters a rich variety of Congregations all firm in their beliefs.

There was a minority of Roman Catholics who tended to be apart and a very small Jewish community, largely in the medical profession.  When the Dominican's arrived to build a Priory with a large Church near the town centre there were strong protests and fears of the Inquisition.

But the landlady at their nearest pub' "The Daniel Lambert", a small discreet back street one, was of the view that when some of them visited; they called it "the other confessional", they were much to be preferred to the local licensing committee, then in the grip of the Methodists.

This kind of thing was only the beginning.  There were pecking orders of class, inevitably, manifested by housing location and any status conferred by position in one club or society or association or another.  There was a strong sector of Working Men Club's, born out of the Mechanics Institutes etc. which had its own structure.

Not only was there ordering by employment status and work but in the different firms and economic sectors.  There was a pecking order of engineering firms.  David Attenborough has moaned about his short period working at a button factory.  I knew the owner well, a good and decent man, David was lucky to be admitted there.

As for the origins of the then population there had been the usual coming and going.  The families of a good many in town had arrived from broadly the area of The Midlands but with others from further afield in Britain and Ireland.  There were a few Italians in the food trades and ice cream makers and others arriving from the war years, including quite a number of refugee Poles.

Many had come because the town had become very prosperous with a thriving, expanding versatile diversified industry and commerce.  It was a key town in the British "Mittelstand" of the early 20th Century.  It was badly damaged by post war high spending centralised government planning and controls and policies which leached the prosperity and prevented real growth of middle and small firm businesses.

The first of the migrants in numbers from Asia and Africa arrived when this was in train.  The radical changes in the local economy and their extent over the next few years was a very difficult business made much harder by the impact on housing and public services.  Another complex layer of diversity was being imposed on an existing one which became displaced.  The older one was affected because of the mid 20th Century secular trends and the economic and structural changes of those decades.

The academics and media of the present with their extreme, narrow and limited view of the past have obliterated the diverse reality of the ways of life in our communities as they were and had been before.  Then was bad and now is good in the Orwellian sense of political thought.

It is a pity that the LSE team did not nip across town to another part where there is a community of Algerians with interesting ideas on diversity and identity.

They might have tried "Molly O'Grady's" by the Market Place for a sample of traditional Leicester beer.  It used to be called "The Saracen's Head".

Cartoon Characters

The US Presidential is beginning to warm up and could be fun, at least for the peoples in other countries.  With ongoing situational chaos in the markets, flocks of Black Swans and any number of intended consequences of this and that anything can and will happen.

One interesting perspective on all this can be found not in the reams of learned discussion and passionate political outpourings in the media at large but in the Dilbert cartoon feature and Scott Adam's blog that goes with it.

He has been running a set of ideas centred on the theory that in The West the old politics are dead and decaying and what we have now in the bright new world of the 21st Century is rule by people who are Master Persuaders, that is best at working the media and pulling the public relations strings.

Today he has come up with something that seems outlandish but does say something about who might think what and to what purpose.  This is about the difficult issue of Islam in The West and what might happen and an opinion of Senator Ted Cruz.

As we all know Mr. Donald Trump has ideas that have excited some comment.  His latest, according to a report seen, is that Brussels is a hell hole because of the recent inflow from the East.

In the past my visits there led me to believe it was boring more than anything, but that was before the EU became the imperial city that it is now.

When Prime Minister Cameron, the so-called leader of one of the lesser territories  returns from yet another of his supplicant visits and dusts off the knees of his trousers he tells us of its wonders and delights.

If Ted or Donald do become President then when Goofy Cameron goes to DC to beg for help next year it will be an interesting occasion, Walt Disney meets the Ealing comedies.

I am wondering about a side bet that during the second term of the Cruz or Trump Presidency Scotland will become a State of the Union along with Syria.

Thinking Caps

The National Hurricane Center has advised me that the season begins on 1st June and I should be prepared.  Meanwhile the debate goes on about weather, climate, the wind and rain and most of all where to book for the summer holiday, if any.

Also, there have been the reminders that 2016 is two hundred years after The Year Without Summer (Wikipedia).  This is something I knew long before Wiki' was but a fantasy idea in the minds of nerds with nothing better to do.

It arose from the massive eruption of Mount Tambora in what is now Indonesia that ejected so much ash and particle content into the sky that across the world weather conditions suffered radical change and extreme events occurred.

The scale of the human and economic damage in a world where agriculture was all was huge and the various consequences really did change nations, societies, thinking and ideas about government and who should rule and how.

At the moment it is evident that across the world most rulers are conducting business on a hand to mouth basis and in those with corruption endemic, hand to hand.  Short term thinking dominates and those who do want to think ahead are either ignored or got rid of.

A "big one" does not have to be a volcano or even a geo-physical event.  We humans have a talent for causing disasters when there is no need and no real purpose to it.  Also, we are told there are other things more important.

For example in the row about in or out of Europe, a major issue is said to be the employment rules affecting footballers.   Forget finance, trade, economics, the whole range of social issues, what matters is whether Doncaster Rovers can deal with player contracts.

It was thought that a post on the major challenges of our time might be useful, but the list was getting long and very complicated, so it was decided to skip it, after all there is football on the box.