Friday 18 January 2013

The Moving Finger Writes And Having Writ Moves On

As we put the cover over the car yesterday a neighbour commented on us being ready for the snow.  My reply was that we were seeking to prevent the snow.  Experience and previous data suggested that putting the cover over the car would almost certainly prevent bad weather affecting our patch.

Now it is snowing.  There has to be an in-house inquest into why our forecast and predicted outcomes failed to achieve our targets.  The blame game will certainly be played and I am onto a loser.

The above may be abstract, to put it politely, but it does have more logic, reliable data and relevance to the immediate situation than a lot of the latest key debate on the issue about migration.  Because EU rules on movement now allow greater freedom of scope for people in Romania and Bulgaria the question is how many, what sort and where they will go?

Were is not for the ability of our species of hominid to move around and to assert our authority and genes over those of other species the human race would not be as we know it, Captain.  Inevitably, we have congratulated ourselves as being the best and brightest of the bunch as the reason for our supremacy.

Personally, I am becoming less and less sure about this the more we discover about the very ancient past.  Capable certainly, but also aggressive, caring little about our impact on our surroundings, merciless in victory, normally, and with a destructive streak that we have never managed to control.

Also, we are prone to strange notions and become fixated about them to the point of happily and systematically slaughtering not just other species but many of our own.  Often cousins who are much more distant have differences that have been enough for them to deny any ideas of toleration or checks on their ambitions.

The trouble is that when a group becomes the victor and dominant it has been the case in a great deal of history that they have made themselves vulnerable to collapse either for internal reasons or because they do not understand that they are now on the receiving end from a lot of other peoples who do not like them.

This is just matters that occur within the species.  One difficulty we have never quite understood or grasped is that we live on a planet which has allowed us to exist because of very special and benign conditions.  The downside is that these change over time, sometimes slowly and sometimes rapidly.

One day Pompeii is a wealthy, active advanced town with desirable property and what passes for a good lifestyle for the period.  The next day it is a heap of dust and what remained of the population has fled.  Once, we are told, the Sahara Desert was a green and well watered land.  So what happened when all that changed?

One feature of recent millennia in human trading was the Silk Road between East and West.  It did not remain fixed but changed over time due both to climatic population shift and the effect of wars and economic changes.  We have little idea of just how many people went in one direction or another.

What has changed in recent decades is that the development of modern transit systems and networks allows movement far more rapid, relatively much less costly and in far greater numbers than ever before.  The economics of this may change adversely if movement costs do rise but if these are countered by the financial and personal advantages to be gained by the individuals at present who do move then movement will occur. 

The problem, as with so many others, is that we are relying on immediate past data and experience to guide us for a very different and challenging future.  We have not yet begun to try to understand the real world we are living in.  It is not enough to pretend we are all nice people and singing each others songs will do.

The history, even of the recent past, does not make comfortable reading.  For those who add to genetics, archaeology, climatology, world history and demography the theories of chaos and complexity it is at least worrying.

What we in the UK are said to know is that there are around four thousand known terrorists who the Home Office would like to deport but cannot because of current legislation.  To this could be added an estimate for those unknown.  Given the number of untraceable illegal migrants this is arguable.

Given the overall world situation they could easily be joined by many others.  As things stand the terrorists active now in Algeria and other places, should they make it to the UK will be welcomed and supported if they could find a family.  They will have in support many who will assist them in the logistics of it all.

It is possible that we could shortly have a greater number of terrorists here than the actual active and combat element of the British Army with supporting groups etc. also rather larger and with access to more reliable funding.  Unlike our troops they would not be thrown on the scrap heap if no longer needed.

What, history or chaos tells us, could happen next?


  1. Thank you. I most sincerely pray you are wrong. I have been expressing similar views, in a much more simple way, cautiously to family, and writing careful(never published)letters to newspapers for some while as patterns have emerged. No response from papers, and benign shaking of heads from others.

  2. "Personally, I am becoming less and less sure about this the more we discover about the very ancient past."

    I agree. Much of the time we run on autopilot, particularly our leaders.