Wednesday 16 January 2013

Oiling The Wheels Of Power

According to what is in the newspapers, this is a sequence that is due to happen in the coming years.


The Referendum on Scotland is due to take place.  Who votes is not clear.  At the moment it seems that those on the electoral roll in Scotland will, whether or not they are Scottish together with the sixteen plus with British citizenship (or not).  But Scottish people whose work has taken them to elsewhere in the UK will not vote.


According to Alex Salmond if the vote is in favour of whatever question may be asked to remove Scotland from the UK this transfer of sovereignty will begin.

But in 2015 there is to be a General Election for the UK.  What will be the position in the Scottish constituencies if the transfer has not by then occurred but may do so later that year?

While this is going on, it is assumed that the question of Scotland and the EU will be resolved.  The latest story is that Scotland will remain in/join the EU but not be part of the Euro Zone.  A theory is that Scotland may continue with the pound sterling.

The assumption is that this will be accomplished easily because Europe will be entranced by having better access to all those Scottish wind farms, fisheries (what’s left of them) and oil supplies.


Scottish elections will take place.  It is not clear at present how “independent” or what spheres of government Scotland might have in Europe because Europe is in the throes of major political changes bearing on the sovereignty of each of the member nations.

2017 And Beyond

This is unknown territory, if only because the complexities outlined above leave a great deal to be determined  What can be said is that the oil is likely to remain in the hands of the oil companies, determined by the grant of oil rights.

The oil rights will be arrived at by negotiation between the major companies and the government which has those rights.  These may depend on the what is happening with oil supplies, prices and production costs, there is uncertainty in this field.

At present nobody, least of all Europe itself, knows what governance and what powers the EU, more fully united, will have and what will be left to the member states.

What, I wonder may happen if the EU determines that all the maritime territorial rights, especially oil, will be a function of the EU and not of the member states?

What could possibly go wrong?

1 comment:

  1. "This is unknown territory"

    These days tomorrow is unknown territory. I think you are right though, this has not been thought through, let alone stitched together.