Tuesday, 27 September 2011

Animal Crackers



Out of curiosity last night put up the Channel 4 broadcast on Tony Blair and his new found riches together with a saved documentary on The Royal Welsh Regiment, point and counterpoint. Today there has been the customary dispute between those who are sceptical about Blair’s money and those who feel that he is entitled to take whatever cut he can get.

In the Blair item there was much solemn mention of millions, the estimated total and where it might all be. What struck me as strange and omitted was that the people and corporations who were shelling out were some of the wealthiest in the world. To them the odd million or two or even several millions was just small change. The recurring theme was oil and gas.

It was on a par with magnates and aristocrats of old rewarding Head Porters and Concierges of their hotels with good big tips to ensure their continuing loyalty and service. The more the programme went on the more the comparison seemed to be valid. Clearly, we already knew who his friends are and how well connected they were, so what changes?

The real question they tried to address but did not follow through was what value for his money Blair was and just how much useful work he was doing. Evidently, there was the odd favour he extracts occasionally. But too often he reminded me of being the sort of well meaning ignoramus that you dread to see coming through the door offering to help.

What is a lot more worrying is that if this is the way critical international relations and problems are being handled and by whom then the Almighty help us all. It is little wonder that bad problems worsen, people’s revolts and extremism are on the rise and communities disconnect. In the UK Blair’s bungling, ignorance and arrogance has more or less done for the UK.

That he is now trotting around poking his nose into some of the most difficult and dangerous world situations is enough to make fall on our knees and offer prayers. In that department, we can hope only that when Blair’s time comes the Almighty will be applying the needle eyes and camels test on entry with full rigour.

The programme on the Royal Welsh Regiment was interesting and balanced. The men (and women) these days seem much more restrained, polite and well behaved than in my day although their foot drill made me wince. But in the field they were doing the job very well indeed and could not be faulted.

What was intriguing was that as one of their predecessor regiments was the 24th Foot, whose 200 plus “B” Company held Rorke’s Drift in 1879 against the Zulu Impis.  Not only does the regiment celebrate rightly the heroism of those men but that it still remains a feature of their organisation. Another feature is that the regimental mascot is a billy goat who is given the rank of non commissioned officer.

There was no mention of the delicate issue of why a large column of British Troops should have gone into Zululand in the first place. This was the great age of British expansion into Africa driven by the need to be there before other European powers, a natural hunger to possess land and very importantly to have what lay underneath the land in the shape of precious metals, gemstones and other ores and metals.

At the end of watching the second programme I realised suddenly that just as in George Orwell’s book “Animal Farm” when at the end the other animals realised that they could not tell the pigs and humans apart, I was unable to work out which was the blustering Blair and which was the grazing goat.

Monday, 26 September 2011

Oil Peaks Off Peaks And Economics



As well as the financial issues at present gripping the attention of the media there is also the longer beat of change in energy, food, water and population. In The Oil Drum today is a long article of near 3000 words with diagrams going into the economics of it all.

These are not simple. It is a very complicated area which takes in the whole scale of human activity given the critical role played by oil in nearly all our economies and ways of life. The article attempts to deal with what is involved.

The link is below with the conclusions quoted.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8410#more

Conclusions Quote:

"Unless and until adaptive responses are large and fast enough to constrain the upward trend of oil prices, the primary adaptive response will be periodic economic crashes of a magnitude that depresses oil consumption and oil prices.

These have the effect of shifting consumption from incumbent consumers—the advanced economies—to the new consumers in the developing economies.

This is exactly what happened in the last recession when between the start of the recession in January 2007 and its effective end in 1Q 2011 demand rose by 4.3 million b/d in the non-OECD area and fell by 4 million b/d in the OECD area."
Unquote.

In the west we have a lifestyle and indeed social structures essentially built on an era of cheaper oil which is readily and immediately available. Also, our food supplies are largely dependent on oil based agriculture and transport.

Add to that the complex financial arrangements originally designed to deal with it which have recently taken on a life of their own, but dependent on that lifestyle and structures.

It is not looking good.

Sunday, 25 September 2011

Pretty Pictures

Events have crowded in this weekend, so only some nice pictures for you to relax with.












Friday, 23 September 2011

This Is Cameron Enterprises How Can I Help You?



With all the gathering gloom and everyone climbing on the economic disaster bandwagon it is time to look at things on the lighter side. One hilarious item was the reports that our Fifty Best Businessmen will each be given a “buddy” in government to help spur our economic revival.

Given the track records of some of our designated “best” businessmen of recent years then the chances are that what the government could get would be quite the opposite. It would not be the ascent of the mountain it would be down faster than your average downhill skier could manage and just as likely to end in a pile up.

What is striking is how quaint a notion it is. In the USA they are much more organised and caring about such things. The Supreme Court, I believe, will have no truck with limiting political contributions or restricting such activity. So there is a free market for both politicians and political favours.

The difficulty in the USA is that so many politicians are damaged goods and are unreliable in use, but by and large they satisfy their purchasers. That what appears to be the US Constitution and policy turns out to be very different from what really happens out there and who benefits is another issue.

The “buddy” principle to us what look at some history is an abiding feature of British politics. Know your friends and know your enemies and anyone who is not your friend is an enemy has been the basis of political interchange in Britain these centuries past.

One of the classic illustrations of the “buddy” principle at work emerged in the Marconi Scandal of 1912. Another is how Britain dealt with some things. Rothschild gold helped win the Battle of Waterloo and in Disraeli’s time the same family coughed up £5 million overnight for us to buy into the Suez Canal and Egypt. More recently Peter Mandelson became their friend.

Country House weekends have been a fixture in all this for a very long while. At one level the Cliveden Set operated and other levels different gathering in many places.  Amongst the Tories and old Liberals it was a matter of which club you joined. Also for many Tories which Hunt and which Grouse Moor you joined could be important.

Canny businessmen would join the favoured haunts of both parties. When Labour became the other party it became more intricate. For someone around then the quiet cosying up of the business chiefs they liked to many of the government ministers was little secret.

This could put someone in an embarrassing position. My parents bought me a Gannex raincoat as a wonderful Christmas present to make up for all the treats not available during my childhood and later years. How could I explain to them that this branded me publicly as a fan of Wilson and his more opportunistic business friends?

Perhaps for a time at the end of the 20th Century all this disintegrated to some extent and there was a scramble for other ways and means. The Blair centralisation of political influence also restricted the market. Now it seems more open but the essential structures for contact more uncertain. It is unlikely to be the open and free market of the USA.

Given the performance of many call centres to day I hope our Best Businessmen do not have to put up with what ordinary people have to endure and make the right kind of contact in the right way.

If everything does go bad what happens if the Cameron Call Centre is outsourced to Shanghai?

Thursday, 22 September 2011

Spot The Backyard Beast



When you come upon a particularly foul pile of material left behind by a wandering beast and it is within the forest of property capers planted and fertilised by the Labour Government then you will see the paw marks of the Great Grumpy Grabber. Unluckily this beast often strayed into ordinary communities.

It is said to be a humanoid variant from a long past era, possibly the Cretaceous, who has survived and found a welcome home in Labour as their last remaining senior being from their former base support. The Grabber acted as a sort of totem and symbol of being, although his use of his pole was unreliable.

It is a pity that the media, too many of whom were implicated in the strange life of the forest, have never looked hard at all the major capers involving property and financial deals related to building investment as well as redevelopment.

Unfailingly, lurking in either the background at least or scavenging what there was to had from the prey that fell into their hands would be the GGG himself. Beginning as a small creature dependent on a burrow given by his trade union he has amassed a great pile of homes and fodder for his and his family futures.

You may think he has now gone into the wild. Do not believe it, the smell is still there, the foulness left behind in almost every public service sector he got his teeth into and others and the costs of clearing it all up are down to you. His presence still haunts the darker corners of politics.

And the media is still paying him money for special appearances.

Wednesday, 21 September 2011

How Much Did You Say It Cost?



As we survey our finances and look accusingly at each other there are the unspoken questions. Is healthy eating just costing too much? What does it do to the electric bill to have the silent football on screen and music on the radio while we look through the magazines?

Then there are the unpleasant reactions when we have to buy things and find the prices a lot more than we expect and the goods shoddier. It is not just us, it seems be a great many people out there who are in the same situation.

Also, we have begun to factor the petrol costs into any shopping or going about anywhere. That run to the seaside where the petrol cost did not bother us we now have to look at in relation to any other spending.

I could go on and on. Rather than ramble round the shire with my own theories a few links on the web today gives some explanation of at least part of it. The first is where the money is going for some people who have oil to sell.

The other is the consequences of the tax gap and its implications. The third relates a tale of financial hanky panky which is but a tiny part of the whole.

The fourth is one of the long and expensive catalogue of gross errors by our super efficient highly managed financially knowing consultant driven machinery of government which seems to be cocking up almost everything it touches.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-19/opec-s-1t-cash-quiets-poor-on-longest-ever-100-oil.html

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2011/09/21/the-tax-gap-hmrc-puts-out-another-work-of-fiction-suggesting-its-falling/

http://treasureislands.org/is-new-zealand-cracking-down-on-dirty-company-business/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8774287/The-469-million-Whitehall-fiasco-of-FiReControl-goes-unpunished.html

Is there honey still for tea?

Tuesday, 20 September 2011

Say Cheese


According to the long and learned article below about Professor Berit Johansen’s work on genes and food in Norway the best food balance for the genes is one third protein, one third fat and one third carbohydrate.

The ideas put forward are at variance with many currently popular diets as well as the ordinary patterns of eating of many.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/09/110919073845.htm

Mine’s a cheese and onion sandwich and a pint, thank you.