According to one politics
commentator, who has been trying to run the figures, the UK, or what may be
left of it, could be heading for a "perfect storm" in the coming
election of 2015. The article is longish but readable and surveys the past.
The votes will not deliver either the
government or the politics that we may really want in democratic terms. As the article shows, this has happened all
too often in the past. This time round
the implications could be worse.
In short since around 1950
the distortions between the voting and the first past the post system have sometimes
delivered uncertain and even perverse results.
Additionally, after 1950 parties with substantial support, if that was widespread rather than concentrated in any area, would be left with very few seats or influence at the centre.
Additionally, after 1950 parties with substantial support, if that was widespread rather than concentrated in any area, would be left with very few seats or influence at the centre.
This has been the
immediate political effect. But there
have been other effects of the imbalances in the system. In many industrial areas dominated by Labour,
their Conservative voters had little or no representation in Parliament. In Conservative areas, their Labour voters also
did not.
So in the two party
"system" in the House of Commons, Labour was not in balance and nor
were the Conservatives. Worse still was
the pork barrel effect in those constituencies that were marginal. Money would be flung at them by both parties
sometimes almost regardless of cost or the economic effects.
Add to this the trend to
politics being dominated by limited elements of professional political
agencies, media and limited access groups and you have further imbalances that
remove government almost entirely from real activity or communities.
Also a political
class that has dumped the old British Constitution for a set of mutually
advantageous fixes to create a state where democracy does not exist in reality
and government and that does not reflect the voter's wishes but those of
contending corporate, agency or lobby groups.
So we have government of and by
minorities, for minorities and against the wishes of any majority of the
increasingly few who do vote or attempt to take an interest in politics.
Historically, this can result in a slide into disintegration, dictatorship or quasi-monarchy.
Historically, this can result in a slide into disintegration, dictatorship or quasi-monarchy.
I think first past the post is well past it's sell-by date, but unfortunately we didn't grasp the AV nettle in 2011.
ReplyDeleteSo yes, 2015 may not deliver what we want and could even deliver a very perverse result indeed - as your link speculates.