Counting By Numbers

If a link is long or complicated it is better that the post be short. The link below is not long but does require careful reading.

Given that so many of our troubles arise from issues related to accounting and the presentation of financial data that is assumed to be reliable but all too often is not it is a thought provoking article.

http://econerdfood.blogspot.com/2011/10/benfords-law-and-decreasing-reliability.html

The article was sent to me by someone who can handle the mathematics and knows how figures can be worked through systems and computers.

If the writer of the article has established that much of the data and information we have available to make crucial decisions essentially is rubbish then the decisions will be rubbish.

Perhaps we already know that.

Amazing Grace

Slumped in front of the goggle box having wondered what was going on in the world the Army arrived, or rather a programme about the Royal Scots Dragoon Guards once the Royal Scots Greys and the 3rd Carabiniers. There was instant recognition, firstly the barracks at Fallingbostel and then the Desert Rat flash on the uniform.

It was a long time ago. A phrase that was common then when describing a major foul up or series of errors was “The biggest shambles since Mons.” Since I have learned that whilst a very difficult retreat in 1914 the Army did manage to stop the Germans and prevent their Master Plan succeeding.

The Kaiser may have called them “a contemptible little army” but his soldiers did not as the casualties mounted and it became clear that their firepower and discipline was remarkable. The consequence, however, was years of trench warfare and at the end of it the Kaiser had gone and the map of Europe was utterly changed.

The Royal Scots Greys were there as they had been at Waterloo seeing off the Emperor Napoleon and French pretensions to be the masters of Europe. It put the posturing of President Sarkozy and Chancellor Merkel into perspective.

It seems they have a Master Plan and they jointly plan to dictate to Europe what it should be doing in the great war against global finance. Except it is not a war more of an abject surrender where we give up the prosperity of future generations to pay the bills that are falling due.

Like the Emperor and the Kaiser they think they know the answer. It is the one being peddled this time not by ambitious generals but by implacable traders and bankers. The answer they think is to fling more money at the problem rather as the generals of the past flung more men into the front line.

Some of us do not agree and have thought for a time now that the problem is debt and not money. In yesterday’s “Guardian”, George Monbiot, claims at last to have seen the light on this. He joins an embattled minority trying to stop the tide of money overwhelming what is left of our defences.

We have little to offer unluckily, perhaps only a long period of financial entrenchment in what may become an increasingly embittered and impoverished world. But if this is not done then everything might be lost by the sheer destructive power of inflation and the quickening pace of the collapse of governments and civil society.

Even more unlucky it will take a lot more than a cavalry charge by the Greys to stop it. Put “Amazing Grace Royal Scots Greys” into Youtube for some soothing music.

A miracle might happen.

The Fox Has Left Its Lair

We have heard a great deal about Mr. Fox and his friends in the last few days.

It is difficult to know what to say about how our government functions or not.

Perhaps this says it all:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WRdJ5wBXpo

But which one is Cameron?

Kicking Things Around

One of the given’s in the way global finance and media has affected the UK in the last decade or two is in the promotion of the English soccer Premiership to the status of one of the major financial and commercial operations in the sports industry, or should that be sector?

Like many other global operations of this kind it has its odd features. In soccer it is that player pay and benefits are mopping up a very high proportion of the total spend. Theoretically, this is unsustainable but is kept going by the desire of magnate backers to be part of the big time whatever the cost.

It can go wrong. The major chicken and egg suppliers of India (or egg and chicken), the owners of the Venky Company, you name it we stuff it, who took on Blackburn Rovers may have made an acquisition that has a nasty dose of the football equivalent of salmonella.

The cure is likely to be an expensive one and not guaranteed to succeed. Blackburn, one of the original Football League clubs has spent most of its history in the second or third levels before Jack Walker bankrolled them around 1990.

It could end in tears. A number of other clubs s in recent years have gone down fast. Looking at the Conference Premier, not in the old main Football Leagues there are no less than fourteen clubs out of the 24 that have come down from the League of whom two once had a spell in the top division.

In general for betting men, one interesting punt is which club will be the next to go into administration or face bankruptcy. There is no shortage of possibilities and the odds are often short. But betting itself has lurched into the mainstream of football provision.

Sky Sports has a very irritating main advertiser for its screened games urging viewers to phone now for the latest special betting offer. The advertising bill boards at the games have a rich choice of betting sponsors and many clubs are also funded by them. Gambling, which was once a side shoot to the game has become central.

There have been a number of major scandals recently involving betting in sport to the effect of players acting to do things that matter to the gamblers rather than to the game. There is nothing essentially new about this, it has just gone global.

If anything the Premiership has been a central plank in world gambling with across the globe the nations come together to wager on which player will score first or when or be sent off. In this context the stories relating to the Rooney family over the last few days have almost an old fashioned look to them.

Wayne is sent off playing for England with a straight red card for a silly reaction that is owed entirely to his bad temper whilst his father has been charged with alleged fixing of matches in company with others. The one will affect the odds on future England games; the other will add interest to the advertising.

As father does not look to be the cleverest cabbage on the patch I suspect he is the sort of inveterate gambler who given a tip in the pub or overhearing some chat on the train between Moorfields and Bootle Oriel Road is on the mobile in seconds without a thought for the reliability or accuracy of the sources.

The trouble is that footballers down the years as well as being unusually prone to some human failings are often gamblers operating at a high level of stupidity. When one of my relations in the 1920’s was offered a professional contract to play for Liverpool his fiancé told him flatly that it was either football or her but not both.

He had a job with a decent wage for the day and promise for the future. He would have been no better off. Also, she was much attached to her family and did not want to risk her husband arriving home one day to announce that he had been transferred to some far distant place, Alloa, Accrington or Aldershot and they were to leave tomorrow.

Her major fear though was the gambling and drinking were part of the culture in football then and when his career ended there would be nothing and the chances were that he might be left as a casual labourer.

These days with the rewards at the very top footballers should have enough invested despite the celebrity lifestyles to eek out the decades after football. Unless, of course we have a big crash that takes the present structure of English football with it.

As for Wayne, my guess is that he is of a build and an athletic type to have knee problems sooner rather than later so he may not have long to go at the top.

It might be worth having a quiet flutter on that one.

Helping Hands

One of the imperatives of history is that if you call in a bunch of the heavy mob to help you then they are likely to help themselves. All too often it is a lesson that is learned only once and by the time you have realised the consequences it is too late.

When certain tribal leaders at the south eastern end of the Atlantic Isles thought that those Romans with their desirable lifestyle might help them to discourage their neighbours from being aggressive they did not know what it would lead to.

Rather later all those princes and rulers in the Indian sub-continent who saw a temporary advantage in availing themselves of the services of those rough people from the west who seemed happy only to go back home with pots of bullion made a similar error.

More recently we have had an unlucky conjunction of our supposed leaders from around the world when faced with complex issues calling in help from an assortment of all too willing people. Blair, Brown and Balls gave the keys to the City of London to a group of financiers assisted by Rupert and his friends. There is no sign of them going away. They are still in charge despite all the hand wringing.

On the continent, no longer isolated since the early 1970’s the EU sought help from a select group of political interests who told it that the economics could be made to fit if one currency could be installed. It didn’t and not only is the EU itself out of both financial and political control the currency system supposed to be basic to the economics has tanked.

The same political and other interests propose another set of arrangements to deal with the situation, if only to retain their powers of extracting whatever money can be had to shore up their position. Now the EU is at their mercy.

In America the leaders of the major corporations and financial houses have such a grip on Washington DC that they are never likely to lose it short of the collapse of the Union which theoretically should not happen. Just like the collapse of many past empires theoretically should not have happened.

There is a debate on what sort of economic principles are now the key to US policy and what their effect might be. The reality is that there are few principles to be found and the politicians could not apply them because of their backers. To others the model seems to be that of the former Enron company. Certainly Enronomics seems to be abiding working model at present.

Russia has its billionaire magnates wreaking havoc not only at home but in many other places including London. The Chinese seem to be willing to help anyone and once installed will stay. The Indian magnates are very willing to help any politicians anywhere, at a price.

Then there are the people whose assets are from energy sources and who have their own ideas, notably in the Middle East. Some of these ideas are religious, some “economic” but all intent on bolstering their own positions and supporting those of their followers and hirelings wherever they are.

In the meantime our child politicians are playing their games of charades. The US is already in the throes of a Presidential campaign that is meaningless in terms of the administration having any real control. The UK Party Conferences have been stand up comedy routines, “Clap hands here comes whoever.” The EU leaders are a travelling circus and the other world leaders are like a tribe of groupies following the latest financial hit band.

In the past it was easy to know who really ruled because of all the flummery and ceremony attached to Kingdoms, Empires or political centres and their workings. In the 21st Century it is hard to tell because you cannot see where the money is.

Quite simply, it goes and where it is kept is secret. The means by which it is moved are secret and the inner workings of the relevant corporations and agencies for the most part are also secret. And now nobody can do much about it except protest.

Eventually all the economic and political systems of the recent and more distant pasts have collapsed for one reason or another. For our present way of living and doing things it may be only a matter of time.

It might only need one more very big bad one, whatever it might be.

Travellers Guide

This is a short post because there is travelling to be done on family affairs over the next few days.

In the meantime there could be some difficulties in world or other finance.

Here is a brief guide to the nature of the problem:

The Euro

A monetary system without the system.

The Pound

Once based on a home owned working economy but now on a foreign owned financial service.

The Dollar

Once a world currency based on a world economy now without the world power or much of its economy.

The Renminby

Once based on a closed economy now on a trading economy that does not want to trade in its currency.

The Yen

Once based on a trading economy that is losing its trade.

The Rouble

Once based on a planned economy that is no longer planned or anything else.

The Rupee

Once based on a peasant economy but now without the peasants.

Given my past record while I am away something will happen.

Heading For The Buffers Again

So the Conservative Party Conference is at Manchester again. It was there in 2009. What has poor Manchester done to deserve this?

They stopped voting for the real Liberals years ago.

On Monday 5 October 2009, I posted an item, link below, about it and I wonder how much will be really changed?

http://thecynicaltendency.blogspot.com/2009/10/tory-party-conference-will-it-hit.html

The picture above should be compared to the other one for a reflection of my views.

Other than that there is nothing to add.