Water Water Nowhere

At the farm shop today there was asparagus, two weeks early to the surprise of the farmers. This was a crop grown just along the road and its early appearance has been due to the recent warm and dry weather in this area. But this might not be all good news.

While our attention is distracted by so many things, not least the knockabout politics going on ahead of elections in the UK in May we are not aware of disruptions in other places that could have wider effects.

One is the ongoing drought in Cuba and the Caribbean which is now severe. There are also water shortages elsewhere in the America’s that might have long term effects. Just how long this will continue and what the consequences might be is difficult to predict.

Again, to lurch back into distant history, it is argued that major long lasting droughts were the cause of not simply economic difficulties but the collapse of civilisations and catastrophic demographic events. If people think that this cannot happen then they ought to think again.

If dry conditions now arise in many places and cause severe problems it is not enough to argue about the potential causes. Whether it is global warming or cooling in the long term we may not know. What we do know is that if large areas with a high water demand and need do not have it then there will be trouble.

1976 cannot be remembered by around half the UK population and of the other half most have probably forgotten how close run the water supply situation became. The potential now is worse is because we have a larger population with wasteful habits many of whom are unused to the disciplines of shortage conditions.

Personally, it would suit me if we had the traditional British summer, two fine days and then a thunderstorm followed by a brisk westerly with showers for a while. I am aware that such a notion would cause the media weather forecasters to tear their hair and rend their clothes.

Under our present complex legislative system I might even be arrested and cast into gaol for causing alarm and despondency.

If so, at least it is likely that I would one of the few guaranteed a bath and access to safe drinking water.

Looking Forward To A Dry Spell?

Watching weeping weather forecasters glumly forecasting rain seems a strange way to start thinking about drought but someone has to. One item around the press this week that caught the eye was about the study of tree ring data on ancient trees in the Americas coupled with scientific analysis of the implications.

The thesis is that over the last 2000 years or so in those areas as well as the usual variations in weather patterns over periods and climatic shifts there have been four “mega-droughts” whose effects have been catastrophic both for the environments and the populations within them.

The suggestion is that such droughts led to the collapse of the Maya societies and other changes. The Maya had built up highly complex urban based cultures with agricultural systems organised to produce surpluses to sustain them. In other places less complicated but still well organised groups have simply disappeared. The end of a number of ancient societies might have involved water problems.

In recent history there have been enough droughts of one kind or another across the world to warn us of what can happen. During The Raj in India and during the period earlier of British takeover droughts occurred which impacted on large areas of the Sub-Continent. We have seen major droughts in Africa and even in the USA in the 1930’s in the mid West there were serious problems, notably in Oklahoma

Very often, and almost inevitably in some cases the situation becomes chaotic in the real sense of the word. Governments and administrations simply cannot cope with the extent and complexity of the problems arising. Not only is there instability but society can descend into war bands intent on self interest.

For the populations affected death and disease take large numbers, those that can get out do, those that survive scrape by at the lowest levels in shattered lands. In the centuries past with substantially fewer people and much lower proportions in urbanised surroundings the effects were bad enough.

What could happen in the coming years of the 21st century if shifting weather patterns alone, irrespective of all the theories of climate change, cause major long term droughts in areas with large populations is difficult to contemplate. It is not possible to predict precisely where, how big and how complicated it could be.

What might have happened in the UK if the 1976 hot spell had gone on for several years? We were having problems after only a few dry months. Even now when some event causes disruption to water supplies it can provoke a local crisis. Is anyone taking a serious look at what could happen either within the UK or in parts of the world with large populations if the water supplies simply dried up?

In the meantime in the City of London, the dealers at the trading desks whoop and holler when a natural disaster occurs somewhere that might affect the supplies of essential commodities. The “market” system that in our modern world is no longer an efficient or reliable means of bringing supply to meet demand is distorted to deliver the financial benefits to the very few. It not longer works for the masses.

And if the taps run dry it will be the masses who will be looking for water and the money to buy it.

Watering No Flowers

A number of times in the past I have mentioned that one of the developing serious issues in the world is that of water supply and distribution. In the UK we may think we do not have the problem but it would only take marginal shifts in several related areas of supply and demand to create one. And it will be one with no easy or cheap answer.

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From “The Ecologist” of 29 June 2010

Report lists top ten countries at risk of water shortages

Sub-Saharan African countries top list of those with most vulnerable water supplies as report warns of 'looming crisis' in both Asia and Africa from pollution and depletion of natural water resources

Depleting water supplies are increasing the risk of both internal and cross-border conflict as competition between industry, agriculture and consumers increases, according to an assessment of world most vulnerable countries.

The report from the analysts Maplecroft, says that the ten countries most at risk are: Somalia (1), Mauritania (2), Sudan (3), Niger (4), Iraq (5), Uzbekistan (6), Pakistan (7), Egypt (8), Turkmenistan (9) and Syria (10).

The ranking was based on an assessment of access to water, water demands and the reliance on external supplies with countries like Mauritania and Niger more than 90 per cent reliant on external water supplies.

Dam conflict

Egypt, ranked eight by the report, is dependent on water from the Blue Nile, and is in the midst of an ongoing dispute with Ethiopia over the construction of the Gibe III dam in Ethiopia, which it claims will further deplete its water resources. The dam, which would be the largest in Africa, has also faced opposition from NGOs who claim it will devastate fisheries in neighbouring Kenya.

A separate report has highlighted the worsening problem of water scarcity in the Himalayan sub-region of India, Bangladesh, China and Nepal.

Although none of these countries made Maplecroft's top ten list, the Indian-based Strategic Foresight Group (SFG) say they will have to cope with 275 billion cubic meters less water within 20 years - more than the total amount of water currently available in just one of the countries – Nepal.

It says that while global warming may take two centuries to seriously deplete the Himalayan glaciers, some impacts will be visible sooner. The Yellow River in China and the Ganges (with its tributaries) in India are expected to become seasonal rivers by the second half of this century.

The high water demands of agriculture in both India (where it accounts for 90 per cent of water usage) and China (where it accounts for 65 per cent of water) will lead to a drop in wheat and rice yields of between 30-50 per cent by 2050, according to the report. It said both countries would be forced to import 200-300 million tonnes of crops.

Water pollution

In addition to natural depletion, the report also pointed out the increasing scarcity of water resources due to pollution. The Yellow River Conservancy Committee estimates 34 per cent of the river is unfit for drinking, aquaculture, and agriculture.

An estimated 30 per cent of the tributaries of Yangtze River are extremely polluted and in India, 50 per cent of the Yamuna River, the main tributary of the Ganges is extremely polluted.

Data for rivers in Bangladesh are not available, but a study published recently in the Lancet medical journal said up to 77 million people in Bangladesh had been exposed to toxic levels of arsenic from naturally contaminated groundwater supplies.

In total, SFG says that more than 30 per cent of the major Himalayan rivers are biologically dead and unfit for people or fish.

Unquote

In the summer of 1976 a number of areas in the UK experienced shortages that caused substantial disruption. If an accident can happen, it will.

Curtains For London?

An intriguing contrast was in this mornings light reading. One was the current edition of World Archaeology and the other a press release from Thames Water. The archaeology had a major item by Brian Fagan (see Wikipedia) on ancient remains in Turkey, all the many and various peoples and their forms of civilization that were there once but are there no longer.


Also, there was an item on the Maya culture in the Americans and their advanced use of water systems, also long gone. Add to that an item on the Cro Magnons and the ebb and flow of their population movement in the long eras of pre-history which had a lot to do with water one way or another.


All of this had a great deal to do with water supplies and use and the critical nature of this basic resource. In short, no water, no civilisation and usually no people. It seems that in our Atlantic Isles we can no longer supply our population, notably in the London area from the natural sources of fresh water we demand. We have found it necessary to use the energy hungry and costly process of desalination to secure our supplies.


Moreover, the energy source referred to is Biodiesel. At present more and more UK land is being taken from food use to grow the crops for “bio” fuels. At the same time our Balance of Trade figures are getting worse by the year. If this goes on, it can only end badly, as it has done so often in human history.


Quote


Mainland UK's first-ever desalination plant was opened today to provide "seriously water-stressed" London with a much-needed back-up supply to use in the event of a drought. Powered by renewable energy, the Thames Gateway Water Treatment Works, at Beckton in east London, will, when required, turn a mixture of seawater and river water from the tidal River Thames into high-quality drinking water for up to one million Londoners.


Today's official opening, by The Duke of Edinburgh, marks the latest addition to Thames Water's long-term measures to ensure it can meet the demand for water. The ongoing replacement of London's leaky Victorian water mains has helped cut leakage by more than a quarter in the past five years. But that progress on its own is not enough to ensure London will have enough water in a drought. The capital is classed by the Environment Agency as "seriously water-stressed", which means that demand could outpace supply in a long dry period.


With climate change threatening hotter, drier summers and an additional 700,000 people forecast to move to London by 2021, the new water works will be available to help provide the capital's supplies for the future - whatever the weather. The key treatment process in desalination is reverse osmosis, which involves forcing salty water through extremely fine membranes. This tried-and-tested technology is used at 14,000 water treatment plants across the world and has kept crews on Royal Navy ships refreshed for decades.


However, while most reverse osmosis plants have one or two stages, which yield around half of the source water as drinking water, the £270m Gateway works is the world's first-ever four-stage reverse osmosis system, yielding a far more efficient 85 per cent.


The works will only take in water on the outgoing tide, when it is a third as salty as normal seawater and so requires less energy to treat it. Martin Baggs, Chief Executive of Thames Water said, “People may wonder why we're equipping 'rainy' London with a desalination plant, something more often associated with the Middle East, southern Europe or ocean-going liners. But the fact is, London isn't as rainy as you might think - it gets about half as much rain as Sydney, and less than Dallas or Istanbul.


Water is an increasingly precious resource that we can no longer take for granted. "Our existing resources - from non-tidal rivers and groundwater - simply aren't enough to match predicted demand in London. That's why we're tapping into the new and limitless resource of the tidal Thames, fed by the rolling oceans beyond, so we can ensure our 8.5 million customers have enough water in future in the event of a drought.


"The 2005/06 drought was too close for comfort, with only a very wet May saving the day, and we never want a repeat of that. It highlighted what we already knew: additional water sources are needed, as well as a lot more work on reducing leakage, to be sure we have sufficient supplies long-term.

"This new works is a major advance in desalination technology and in UK water resource management. Running it on biodiesel, derived from materials including used cooking oil, will also help us tread as lightly as possible on the environment, on which our core business depends."


David Bland, Chairman of the Consumer Council for Water’s London and South East Region said, "Notwithstanding the obvious cost of building and running the plant, CCWater warmly welcomes the opening of the Thames Gateway Water Treatment Works. The security of the water supply for all users, in all circumstances, is our absolute over riding priority, and this plant will contribute significantly to that assurance at times of the greatest risk to supplies.


"It is a major investment by Thames Water which, alongside the vital programme to reduce leakage in London by replacing the Victorian water mains, will reassure our increasing population that the most essential commodity is constantly available. We congratulate the company on the completion of this facility, a first in mainland Britain."


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So how many more desalination plants are we going to require and at what cost? Just how much bio or other fuel will be needed? Does nobody understand that sometime very soon something has to give?

Water On The Brain

The plumber has been to do some necessary work and reminded us of how water is critical to our way of life because on each day he had to turn our supply off. For drinking, washing ourselves and the kitchen it was possible to store enough but had the supply been off for days it would have been difficult. If it had been off all the time and then for days and weeks life would have become very difficult. As one ages, let us say that not only does time pass quicker, but so do liquids through the body.

The politicians do not consider plumbing, drainage and water supplies as “Front Line Services”. Nowadays it is all private sector stuff that they have sold off to foreign private equity groups and regard the income streams leading to the shareholder value as a source of profit for their trusts and investments. It is only when the water streams begin to fail that they start to panic. They also panic when there is too much water and all those lovely new properties they have permitted to be built on ancient flood plains have real running water as opposed to plumbed.

At the moment due to the recession it appears that plumbers have less work to do. It meant that we were able to arrange the dates and times of ours to our diary and not his. There were hitches, but not his fault. The extensive destocking of inventories of suppliers meant that filling orders has become erratic. This has not been helped by so many well established suppliers and other firms going out of business. Again, these are all private sector and therefore of low priority in the great government scheme of things.

On April 1st our plumber told us a whole new raft of regulations and rules have come into effect that impact quite considerably on the trade. The detail is too much and too complicated for this post. The objective he tells us is to assert greater control over what goes on in the building trade and in the plumbing and gas fitting. This is drive out the “cowboys”, persons untrained, unqualified and often unpractised who do jobs on the quick and on the cheap with unlucky consequences.

Of course, as anyone familiar with “Fawlty Towers” knows, the real issue is the quick and cheap and too many people go for this without thinking ahead. In any case it is very easy to become a “cowboy”, I could be one if I chose. All I need to do is to go to the nearest superstore DIY place and load up with everything needed to ply the trade I choose. You name it I have done it in the past, albeit only in my own homes. Roofing, carpet fitting, plumbing, electrical work, car repairs, decorating and last but not least gas fitting when I was young and careless.

Our plumber is now trying to sort out the paperwork and the rest relating to all these new requirements. It is costing him time and trouble. He has to make up his mind which registrations with which body will be relevant and what the implications are. He is already trained and registered but needs to clarify what and who he is. But he is private sector and therefore will bear his own costs.

With the added cost of the registrations come other things, notably all sorts of little added extras including, guess what, yes, government sponsored training. The courses cost several hundred pounds a throw and take up a deal of the time he needs to make a living for himself and his young family. Training is education and unlike plumbers, a Front Line Service, for which the plumbers are going to have to pay heavily. As well as the other costs imposed to deter “cowboys” who will not take any notice of all this in any case.

He has told me that all the new Building Regulations will have some interesting effects, notably in relation to water supply. The idea is that in new build home the amount of water for each person should be no more than 125 litres a day. A power shower apparently uses 18 per minute. Whilst single persons or dirty old men will be able to manage it is unlikely that any family with young children will be able to.

What is more intriguing is the number of agencies and bodies involved in all this as well as the staff required by local authorities for purposes of control and management. The NHS has become notorious for the declining proportion of doctors and nurses as opposed to managers and administrators. It seems that our private sector plumbers could almost be expected to maintain roughly the equivalent of one public sector employee each to be able to do their job.

Then there are all the alleged Polish plumbers, perhaps of urban myth, but it seems that large contractors can take these on in any numbers irrespective of other matters because of EU rules. How far they are qualified is another matter. One of my great hopes is that as so many are being used on the Olympic projects that on the opening day of The Games in 2012 the Stadium will have to be shut down for health and safety reasons because all the plumbing has failed.

When I try to puzzle this out none of it seems to fit. Just like the original plumbing in my place which I learned too late was done by sub contracted “cowboys”.