Showing posts with label Information. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Information. Show all posts
Friday, 4 November 2011
Lies, Lies, And More Lies
It is a commonplace to suggest these days that we have an “information overload”. That is from the wealth and variety of sources there is now so much to read and study on almost any subject that it is impossible to either absorb it all or really understand what is going on out there.
This starts from the basic assumption that all this material is either reliable or is intended to be reliable. This can lead to difficulty. I may well believe that the moon is made of green cheese and can cull sources from history to support my case. But the weight of evidence would be against me.
Therein lies a problem. The weight of evidence may be in one direction for a number of reasons but as we have learned too often might well turn out to be wrong because there is a built in assumption or theory that turns out to be far from the case.
Think of ulcers and their treatment. In the past it was believed that bacteria could not exist in the stomach or the gut. When a backwoods Australian decided to see if it did the consequence was to undo a great deal of medical practice and theory.
This is science and even in this sphere it is necessary to be careful about what is said to be or not to be. With increasing reports of now how much “science” is controlled by particular interests who want the results to go their way and therefore both the honesty and reliability are in question then these are troubled waters.
When it comes of politics, finance, economics and the realms of “social studies” and the rest in our modern world it is all to play for. In the past the desire for rational analysis and reliable information led to a hunger for figures and facts. For the most part in the early stages the intention was to be honest but as soon as politics was involved then the use made of them became increasingly dishonest.
Essentially, there are three categories of information. The first is that which is intended to he an honest assessment or statement of what is known from which conclusions are offered which are supposed to relate to the information.
Even with this category the information and conclusions are only as good as the original data. If this has taken time to collect and work on then by the time it appears things may have moved on. Whilst the data is not “false” but maybe has flaws by the time it becomes available it may no longer represent reality.
The second category is information put out as data but which often is more opinion or information twisted or used to present support for a policy, action or idea. Often the data might be incomplete, distorted or ordered in presentation to make a case rather than be a rational and impartial analysis.
The third category is information which is deceptive. There are two classes of this, one is material known and intended to be a deception. The other and the very dangerous kind, is where people have in fact deceived themselves to justify what they are doing. That is acting more in hope or theory than knowledge.
When you have a group of politicians or financiers who have more or less abandoned the first two categories and have come to rely almost entirely on the third then you have deep trouble. This is worse when you have the lethal mix of the two kinds that was characteristic of the Blair/Brown years and at present of the EU and high finance in the USA.
Given that so many regimes in the world are deeply corrupt and that so much of finance is about the economics of extraction when their leading representatives come together to decide on the fate of the world when faced with a chaos of their own making then their deliberations are entirely based on false data and false premises.
They do not know what they are talking about or why so the result is likely to be chaos, or rather worse chaos than we have at present.
Monday, 9 May 2011
Hear Ye! Hear Ye!
It is bad enough to see uncomfortable information and figures, especially when they relate to so much of your life and the modern economy. What is even more worrying is when you know the information and figures you are going to need to make critical decisions are not going to be available.
There are cuts and cuts but when they can lead to worse trouble in the future if you do not know what you are doing then it can all become very difficult. The Oil Drum site is one of the few that do attempt to allow a real discussion.
It does not like the closure of an agency of the USA that studies the supply and demand for oil and related products.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7874#more
Given the present instability around the commodity markets, in part about differences of perception about future supply and demand and in part because the loose money has to go somewhere, then the more and better information we have on real trends and from reliable sources the better.
To add to the issues about oil there are also the food commodity markets that need some clear information gathering and sensible analysis. This story below on the risk of drought impact on European wheat supplies is an example of an impending problem that might happen and we need to know about.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-06/europe-wheat-harvest-to-fall-on-drought-may-be-catastrophic-agritel-says.html
Given the UK has little or no functioning government machinery capable of working out what next or why in almost any sector of its activities the risks of us being hit hard by something expected but not seen or discussed are high.
The trouble is that we few, we unhappy few that do try to look beyond next week and scratch around looking for reliable information are regarded as trouble making types who just want to spoil the party.
What scares me is how much that can go wrong and how little we know about any of it.
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