News And No News

With Nike footing Manchester United’s finances and apparently Qatar wrapping up control of Marks and Spencer’s and the new High Speed Train 2 project being built by foreigners for foreign finance and of foreign control, with alas British taxpayers, those that cannot escape, paying for it, the colonisation of England continues.

In the meantime the great question is who will determine how we get to know which celebrity or other famous person has trouble keeping their primeval instincts in check, who is fiddling the books, who is defrauding who, where the good and great keep their money, taken from us, and how and who is actually in control of our system of government.

The markets are not happy at the moment with it all going South in shades of red.  The cause is Cyprus in hock to the EU, over bought, over borrowed and over the debt limits.  All we need is for Zeus to be in a bad mood again and decide that it is high time that the Santorini Caldera had another airing. 

The last one was in the Bronze Age and did for several ancient civilisations.  In our time with all the advantages of globalisation and immediate connections we could go back to The Stone Age very quickly.  In that case all the present news is no news.  Life would become much simpler and for around 98% of us much shorter.

It may be just one of those temporary phases that come round or right themselves or that some group of great powers manage to contain.  But there has been five years of this and then some time building up to it.  My whinging began in 2005 based on long standing doubts.

This roughly covers the same sort of time span that the diplomatic problems of the first decade needed to culminate in World War One.  Also, it covers a similar time span to the one between the Weimar Hyperinflation of 1923 and then to collapse of the Credit Anstalt in Vienna, the fuse that blew the 1931 collapse.

For entirely personal and selfish reasons it would be better to do without another bad crash, much as one enjoys a good shadenfreude now and again.  A marginal triple dip recession may not mean too much other than political embarrassment. 

As a great deal of our “growth” recently has been digital figures being passed around the computers of financial back offices some peoples output figures may go down but the real economy might continue or indeed be improved.  Probably, we might all eventually benefit from the reduction in digital numbers.

The trouble is all those international bodies and agencies whose existence is largely predicated in terms of digital money, information and effort.  By one of those sad turns of events these are ones particularly involved in our systems of government.  The centralisation of this and its capture, regulatory and personal means we have a peculiarly detached and special form of elite.

This has happened before in human history, one example of a detached governance ruled by mysterious persons owing their beliefs to strange and other worldly gods was that of the Minoans.  Their civilisation; based on bulls (or were they really aurochs?) and their worship came to a bad end when Santorini last went up.

Just as our recent bull market may crash if matters in the Eastern Mediterranean cannot be resolved and the fall out puts Europe into an Economic Winter.

Anyone for bull leaping?

How And How Not To Be Busy

Yesterday, Saturday, we found ourselves close to one of the BBC’s leading political reporters.  Out of deference to Lord Leveson, his best friend Hugh Grant and other followers it would be wise to not to mention the occasion or identity. 

In any case I do not want him turning up with a camera crew at my place to deride my view expressed in 1951 that Clement Davies and the then Liberal Party might be the better electoral option.  That one went very badly wrong.

The occasion was one where jealousy, deceit, politics, oppression, religion, torture, violence against women, murder, treachery and violent deaths were being enjoyed by all.  It must have been a relaxation and relief for him as a break from life in the Westminster Village and possibly truer to real life these days.

After returning and remembering there were rugby internationals, the TV was switched on to more thud and blunder.  Wales were winning and in a way that reminded me of the long, over thirty year period, when England failed to win in Cardiff.

There were times when they might have won.  One I recall was that when two points up and in the dying seconds of the game one of the England centre’s wandered offside directly in front of the posts.  He gave away a penalty and the game. 

Later we put on the just acquired Van Cliburn CD of the only performance he ever gave in England, on the afternoon of Sunday 7^th June 1959.  A celebrity occasion, but somehow I had got my hands on tickets and was there.  He was certainly good.

1959 was a year when I made it to Cardiff Arms Park for the Wales v England game.  The weather was filthy wet and it was a grim struggle hugging the touchlines and won by Wales late by a converted try, the only score.  But the memory made me think of costs.

As I was not playing because of injury then, a treat was called for.  So I bought a ticket on a special Pullman train from London Paddington to Cardiff and back with lunch and dinner on the train and a ticket for the match included.  It cost five guineas.  The ticket for the Cliburn concert was just under a pound.

When you think of the likely cost of trying to do the same today it comes as a shock to realised how devalued the currency has become if you look at real equivalents.  Also, because of other things whilst many prices have “fallen” in real times there are a lot where the real costs have been edging up.

The wonder is that so few of us realise the distortions and impact the changing values and structures of the financial system have had on the economy and society.  Has it all really been such “good news”?

One thing does seem to have happened and for all the advances we have less leisure and are a lot busier.  With a hat tip to one of The Young Ones who sent the link, this item is a half humorous, half serious, half provoking and half stimulating item:

http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/30/the-busy-trap/

Yes, I know you can’t have four halves, but you have to allow for inflation.

Privacy? You Are Giving It Away

The prospect of the Coalition collapsing not over Europe, the Budget, Defence, the National Health Service or any major responsibility but because of a rift about privacy and state control of the press and others really does suggest that our political elite are off their respective trolleys.

Long ago in the West End there was always a good selection of low farces with other higher grade comedy on offer in the theatres and around.  They allowed us all to realise and understand the relentless stupidity of our species and especially those who attempted to rule and control it.

Where have they gone?  Given the chaos in government and the unerring talent of both politicians and senior civil servants to make a botch even of the simplest tasks and routines the answer must be they have all moved down the road into places like Downing Street, the Palace of Westminster and the great offices of state.

One can understand the manic attention to “privacy” amongst the elite.  Given what we know about their management of personal finances, expenses claims, social habits and predilections and the rest there are questions in our mind.

So when the several gruesome elements amongst the “Hacked Off” groups, in panic that more of their stranger and rather anti-social activities will attract interest lobby furiously to see blanket regulation, restriction and control of the media it is a matter of seeking honour amongst thieves.

It has been pointed out in some parts of the web that the anxiety to put this in place is stimulated by the proposals of the EU to do the same in order to “thought police” any opposition or enquiry into any wrong doing, fraud and corruption. 

As this kind of activity is no longer at the margins of the EU but has moved to the central authority they are very anxious to shut criticism, enquiry and complaint well and truly up.  Equally, it is valid to suggest that the UK is now run by a bunch of crooks.

What is ironic about those who live and die by their status as a celebrity is that while they will court milk the media for all they can get out of it and almost demand and insist on attention, like certain politicians, as soon as the media ask awkward questions or suggest any criticism they want silence enforced.

There is an interesting item from the world of science on some of this and it is that when it comes to privacy we may well be our own worst enemies, see this Science Daily link:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/03/130311151110.htm

In the past this blog has commented that our Western notions on this are strange.  We believe it is a “human right” when for most in the world it is impossible.  

Also, in our own past it was very difficult to have any such privacy and what is demanded today would have seemed almost inhuman, never mind anti-social, unless it was impelled by a special devotion, such as the Anchorite in the picture above.

There was once a Royal Naval submarine called HMS Anchorite, but I doubt if there was much privacy to be found there.

No man is an island.

A Tale Of Two Londons

This item is short but the link is large and the subject represents a big question. 

It is an article by Nicholas Shaxson in “Vanity Fair” on the subject of One Hyde Park, London, referred to before in this blog.  The interesting matters are who owns the apartments, how, that is financed and why, given the huge costs of purchase.

The article does not limit itself to the immediate situation but outlines the longer story behind it.  This is the kind of money coming into London that has driven the property bubble and the associated impact in the South East.

There has been a lot of fuss about the capping of housing benefits in London largely centered on the families being installed in expensive properties.  There has been much less interest or comment on who might own them and are raking in the profits.

What is more worrying is that the money and use of it are not secure.  It would not take too much for those who have it to suddenly change their minds and to try to cash in.  This could have the makings of a nasty financial crash.

For quite a while now our governments have been betting the economic house on keeping the London bubble going and continuing to attract a lot of the funny and criminal money sloshing around the world.

We could all finish up the losers.

http://www.vanityfair.com/society/2013/04/mysterious-residents-one-hyde-park-london

Consider, are these the people you really want to trust with your life savings and perhaps your future pensions?

Going Global Means Getting Austerity

The not so pretty picture above is of the Austerity locomotive designed by Southern Railways during WW2.  The huge demands of the global war effort on freight movement was beyond the capacity of its existing locomotives, 

Also the variety of types, their age and variety of those they had inherited from the past gave rise to many problems in keeping them on the tracks.  So the Southern Railway came up with a minimalist design stripped down to basic essentials, easy to repair and maintain.

During the 1940’s Austerity meant many things to many people and for the most part was ruthlessly enforced by a highly centralised government.  There was little that escaped the attention of the bureaucracy and the public were offered few choices and fewer luxuries.

Since the 1950’s, however, we have become persuaded that increasing prosperity should be the norm and we have now lifestyles where the level of consumption and the possessions of some of the poorer elements would have been considered the privileges of the better off or even wealthy then.

The world turns and times changed as do economies, monetary affairs, governments and their policies.  We still have big government but it is expected to be there to deliver not just our basic needs but all our various wants and desires.

But they can no longer do this and the politicians are reluctant to admit it, even if they understand how their power and ability to decide has been fatally eroded.  This in part is due to their own promising all things to all people.  The way they attempted to find the answers to all the problems was by signing up for Globalisation.

Oil Drum today had a post taken from Our Finite World which suggests that it cannot work; is not going to work and for many things it is going to get steadily worse.  If the writers of the article are correct the situation is that there is no going back.  The title of the post is “Twelve Reasons Why Globalisation Is A Huge Problem”.

It is a longish one with diagrams, but for a quick read just scroll down and take in the twelve sub headings in bold script.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9871#more

Then think about our place in the world and where each of the developed nations stand in relation to this.  It may be that many will become “developing” nations only going in the direction of becoming steadily poorer.

This is the backdrop to the budgetary issues facing the USA, the big one and the UK its rather smaller spin off economy.  The EU is still living in la la land.  The answer they have had so far is to feed the monster with more and more money, but the monster may be about to spit it back.

Like the Austerity locomotive of the past it could be very ugly.

History Depends On Who Writes It

In his blog, Raedwald today mentions the issue of History, what it is and might be taught to the young, which in turn relates to what we might regard as the necessary history of the Atlantic Isles.  In particular, he mentions the matter of Blair and others placing the Sheffield Knife Grinders strike ahead of Agincourt.

With a spouse who numbers Sheffield metal workers in her immediate ancestry, one has to be careful here, not least because it is possible that Sheffield metal might have been in use at Agincourt, in the hands of some of my family as well as a contingent from Yorkshire..

The Grinders in question are part of the story of the development of the Labour movement in the late 19^th Century.  But this in turn is being selective because to pick out them and that movement in itself has a bias.  There was a lot going on around that time and it is all very complicated.

As this blog has mentioned already, possibly several times, one feature of our social history that has disappeared is the extent, power and influence of the Temperance Movement, which in turn had a substantial working class element in its leadership.  Another such change was the gradual Great Agricultural Depression which had a wide range of effects.

Other developments in this period which contributed hugely to what became the Atlantic Isles were in technology, science and medicine.  Some have a passing mention, for example telegraphy, but not others.  One is the invention of the condensing steam engine which meant a leap forward in the use and applications of steam power, notably in shipping and in the railways.

The basic problem is that History so often involves a reduction and simplification, sometimes with an agenda, sometimes told as a tale to suit either the audience or who is telling the tale.  Agincourt was not simply brave little England bashing France, it was an exploratory expedition designed to test French capabilities.

King Henry V was not just trying to create an identity for England, he was attempting to restore the long lost Angevin Empire of King Henry II with its vast territories in what is now France.  Had King Henry V lived a good deal longer he might have achieved this. 

Also, had the English not declined into the civil Wars of The Roses and managed to hold on both to the territories and to an effective alliance with Burgundy we might never have had the powerful and highly ambitious France of the 16^th Century and later. 

The lesson of Agincourt is not just that a well organised small force can achieve a great deal, but that our notions of nationality can be subject to radical change in a short time.  Sometimes we do not see the other lessons of historical events because we either do not understand them or do not see the evidence.

One activity lately has been to make use of the vast archive material newly available online in subscription web sites.  Things that might never have been found, even with long and difficult research can just turn up leaving one astonished.  A feature of this is to connect people in unexpected ways which shed a different light on much of what went on in the past.

Hunting, or for that matter riding horses has never been a part of my life nor following hunts or even going to the races.  An example of what can happen is that I begin to wonder when looked at is how the British elite of the late 19^th and early 20^th Century functioned.  One way might be that you need to see who hunted with which pack, when and where and the culture of horse racing. 

This may seem unlikely but it is no more so than knife grinders in Sheffield sparking off associations of workers.  What reception would anybody get from suggesting that it might be useful if children in schools were taught the history of fox hunting, racing and the careers of the most notable huntsmen of the period?

See “Bay Middleton” in Wikipedia and there were others like him.

Here's To The Next Time In Housing

Travelling back on Saturday there were two ladies in the next seats talking about their jobs.  One in a large educational establishment was wondering about her future in that it was running a large deficit.  Worse the accounts were in something of a mess.  The other had not long lost a job because of similar difficulties.

This was the public sector, not some fly by night outfits or a company in too much of a hurry or anything of that order.  It added to my impression now that it seems to becoming harder and harder to find organisations that are well run never mind delivering the service you hope for.

One of the headline stories is about the developers claiming that the economy could be saved by building more and more houses.  Given their financial support for the leading political parties it is clear that they are looking for pay off time.  There are a number of problems about all this that are known well enough.

There may be an even bigger area of difficulty and increasing risk that seems to be going unnoticed.  “Private Eye” last week in a small item on Page 5 (the lead page) referred to it.  I quote, “UK PLC wasn’t the only entity to lose its AAA rating last week.  The next day Moody’s downgraded the credit ratings of nearly all English housing associations, blaming the weakness of the regulatory framework governing them.”

The item briefly goes on to explain the chopping and changing etc. of this over the last few years.  It comes as little surprise to see the name Gordon Brown, the Ghost of Kirkcaldy, in the frame.  This is a major area governing housing and the rest that is of critical importance both to housing provision generally and to very many people, notably in the lower income groups.

It is a pity that neither “Private Eye” nor the other major investigative groups have taken a good hard look at what us going on in the housing sector that serves what might be called the “under class”.  The media as a whole are so entranced by the high end property markets and mortgaged private housing, if only for reason of their advertising potential, that the rest is ignored.

It may be that the public rental sector is gradually slipping into a state where it could become a major financial crisis area in the near future.  The story of the Associations and connected organisations is very complicated and difficult to sort out.  Essentially, however there are a number of Associations that are now big players in the money markets with a tail of many and various associates linked in.

Quite what the scale of their borrowing is and how it is financed is not clear.  But given the pressures put on them by the previous government it may be very large.  This may arise in part from the low interest policies etc. over the last few years.  It is my guess that a number of them could already be badly overstretched and vulnerable to even minor adverse shifts in market conditions and interest rates.

It you add to that top management that are frankly not very good, operate in a turmoil of reorganisations, initiatives, a variety of incoherent schemes and whose accounting systems are not just fallible but are unable to deliver reliable basic figures there are some potential disaster areas.

Who will pick up the bill for all this?  Given that so much social housing is in the hands of some of the biggest with many of the most vulnerable categories of people in it if the local authorities are now out of the picture in very many cases then it can only be the government who can attempt to sort out the gathering mess let alone the potential disasters in individual Associations.

The sums involved may not be the stratospheric figures that the failure of banks faced but they will be large enough and will impact across the whole sector.  They will be enough to throw all the present calculations of government finance into some disorder at least and mean another big hole in the budget.

Another area of worry is that in the other property management sector dealing with leasehold property and allied rentals; some also linked to Housing Associations is a raft of others, companies, amongst whom are some very “iffy” operations.  Currently, Companies House does not enquire about firms that do not submit accounts or simply shut down after a short period of operation.

The overall picture could be one of some very rickety Associations responsible for much of our social housing being in serious financial trouble and unable to explain why along with property management services that also have unsatisfactory features linked with others which are essentially fraudulent.

It seems that the relatively “light touch” regulation with limited powers means that none of this is touched notably how far either the overall financial strategy or the need for proper and careful accounting is required.  In fact to all intents and purposes there is something of a “free for all” in parts of this sector.

Here we go again.