Thursday, 12 April 2012

Place Your Bets

It is not so long ago that the fanciful notion of a major state with an economy and trading capacity to match might implode under economic and social stresses arising from financial mismanagement seemed impossible.

This was because our advanced knowledge of mathematics as applied to the control and exercise of trading financial services together with the power of computers and the application of the highest qualified personnel would make it so.

All it needed was for sympathetic politicians to allow this to go forward without too much interference and questioning and for the masses to be bought off one way or another.  The media would shout “Are we all happy?” and then the media would reply on behalf of all “Yes, we are!”

It does not seem to have worked.  Goldilocks is now in therapy in intensive meditation classes.  The captains of industry are heading for the boats first taking the cash from the safe with them and the men in the engine room are wondering which rivet will be the next to go.

Meanwhile those allegedly in charge are now prisoners of events and try to survive by throwing more cash at people who will either keep it safe for themselves or lend it to governments frantic to keep the public quiet.  This means that those in charge are probably really lending to themselves in order to spend.

That is why a major state doing this may implode shortly unless there is a radical change.  Greece does not count as a major state but it is large enough to be a factor in the collapse of whichever is the first big one to go.  At present there is a debate as to who is most exposed.

Meanwhile, in the USA it appears that the Mexican border controls could soon reverse their operations to prevent the mass migration of Mexicans in the USA back to Mexico

Also, in the USA the people will either re-elect someone alleged to be really an illegal immigrant, who has been unable to control events or someone alleged to be a tax avoider who will just try to keep the financial show on the road.

But if the USA is not to be about to implode, then if such an event occurs in Europe the election could well be affected by the consequences.  Anything could happen and probably will.

Which brings me to the “what if” question.  Which of the other major states around the world unexpectedly and more or less without warning could suddenly run into very serious trouble for some reason?

All of those who are candidates apparently to be safe or have enough reserves to resist the worst have weaknesses in their economic structures as well as problem areas of management.  Although apparently better placed to deal with problems failure is not out of the question.

It is a little like watching the Grand National Steeplechase.  At the off theoretically all the horses are capable of finishing.  But you know they will not and any of them could fall including the favourites.  More to the point some horses that fall bring down others.

Of the runners in the race this year, should I bet on “Any Currency”, “Always Right”, “Organisedconfusion” or “Shakalakaboomboom”. 

It is a difficult call.

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