The Way Ahead

There has been a run of major earthquakes which has a number of people wondering they are a precursor to something much bigger that will be one of the exceptional geophysical events of our era.

Who knows?  Personally, I have been thinking it has been a little quieter recently.  But given that the incidence and type of event are not predictable and are variable this might be just a busier phase of activity.

It does serve to remind us humans that we are not really in charge.  Whether any deities are involved or as science suggests that's the way it is living on a speck of dust in an outer galaxy.  Our problem is that we think we are in charge of many things when there is still scope for doubt.

Nowhere is this truer than in relation to our monetary, financial. political and other matters.  We allow or put into power on the whole people who say they are able to fix things, give us what we want and ensure it all goes well.

But what suits some people does not suit others.  We are happy to take but no so happy about giving.  Also, we are prone to changing our mind in ways that are departed from rationality or sense.  Last but not least we can be violent if provoked.

The present business of the EU Referendum is a case in point.  A flip promise made to buy a few votes by David Cameron has become a real and major political issue at present .  But in a couple of months things can happen, especially unexpected ones.  Also, a lot of other people are into the act with their own ideas and motives.

President Obama and the US State Department is said to want the UK in the EU.  This is not for idealistic reasons.  Wall Street and the US tax havens have The City of London and its allied havens to compete with.  The City also controls our government, of whatever party.  If the EU can assume effective control over the City this could well suit the USA very well.

But Cameron and his Lightweight Infantry and some in The City feel that in the EU they will hold the winning cards and can dictate policy towards financial services.  Perhaps there is the blissful idea that Luxembourg and Monaco etc. could come to be in the realm of City activity.  If so this is a huge gamble with the future of the UK.

In all the remonstrance and railing against the alleged risks and firm predictions about the unpredictables there has been little mention of what might happen in the critical area of financial services and control over the markets and their operations.  If it did go wrong in these sectors the UK would be badly affected, which would suit the USA.

With all the problems and volatility out there at present and the experts can see a great many areas of risk, the next year or two could be fraught.  If the vote was to stay in and then major disruption occurs how far can Brussels be trusted to either understand or deal with the consequences?

It is possible that by promising a Referendum David Cameron put himself into the position that he would have to be leading the In supporters.  Had he not done so and there had been no vote, if the big bad financial crisis does occur he would have been in a position to go for the Out option.

On the other hand, if the shaking of the earth means another Tambora, Krakatoa or Laki volcanic event, it will be purely academic.