There is no
equilibrium.
The world of
economists spends much of its time trying to work out what the equilibrium is
and how it comes about. A lot of the
debate is about the past concerning what should have been and why it did not
happen.
The shelves
groan with the weight of books about it and the journals are crammed with the
arcane debates of persons who have give their lives to the search. They might as well have mounted a horse,
found a Sancho Panza and set off on a quest.
The concept of
an equilibrium is an unattainable dream and in reality always has been. There might have been some sort of economic
equilibrium many thousands of years ago before humans began exchanging goods
and services, but it all went to hell when some fool invented forms of money.
There is no
normal.
Close to sixty
years ago I was present at an occasion when the Soviet Ambassador attended by
beaming and servile socialist academics at the LSE tried to persuade us that
the Soviet Union at that time represented what should be normal for all.
There have
been many other occasions when politicians of various stripes and with malice
aforethought have told me what should be normal. Given the way humans behave and how one
generation is rarely the same as another change is always with us.
In the past at
certain times and places there may well have been a stasis or a relatively
static system in place, but never world wide and never one that could really be
transferred. It is better to assume that
humans are essentially deranged and kept in control only by appealing to their
fears.
There is no
certainty.
For decades
our weather forecasters tried to persuade us that they could advise us of what
to expect. Nowadays, grudgingly, they
admit that they are making educated guesses.
Sadly, many have had a limited education.
The same goes
for anyone else making predictions about the future because all our educations
are limited and we are only dimly beginning to admit it is impossible to know
everything and judge the manifold variations in even simple matters.
There are no
right decisions.
Many decisions
have a variety of options and implications.
The more complicated they are and the more people involved the more
chance that some will be losers.
Given that
there is no normal etc. see above it is very easy to make decisions that will
turn out to be wrong for you and those that are right, all too often are bad
for someone else.
If
only.........
There is no identifiable
future.
Look at the
past, look at what happened next and where and look at the present. Could anyone, other than a lunatic, have
predicted where and what we are today and have got it right?
There is no
one responsible.
Because of our
many and various class systems and our love for ordering and stratifying
societies some people at the top make decisions for those lower down.
We like to
think that they are responsible when all too often the level of their
responsibility is about the same as a baby throwing things out of the pram.
The trouble
with absolute or class based rule is that it depends on structures which are
absolutely loyal, competent, put self interest below duty and capable of doing their
jobs properly. This does not
happen.
As democracies
in fact need similar qualities relating to people being voted in they have the
same problem given that so many democracies have finished up either electing
absolutists or people unfitted for carrying any kind of serious responsibility.
There is no
way out for the living.
It is not a
question of might things go wrong, at present for just about all of us it is
when.
We are not autonomous and neither are our leaders and authority figures. We and they are products of our circumstances and genes and on the whole self interest comes first.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately there are too many who can't live with that so they dream up systems...
A sombre note has crept in, Demetrius. Any specific stimulus?
ReplyDeleteLooking at the routine shopping bill for a couple and realising it is more than the cash price of the deposit for our first house.
DeleteLooking at the routine shopping bill for a couple and realising it is more than the cash price of the deposit for our first house.
Delete