So days, or was it
minutes, after Westminster is boasting about the Hinckley Point nuclear plant
deal, we learn that the petrochemical plant Grangemouth is to close and
Edinburgh is scrambling to deal with the fall out.
"Private Eye"
would wonder if it was "surely, some coincidence" but perhaps
not. All major industry and its finance
and funding is now more or less global and this means that changes and the
making of decisions are not easy to explain to the voting masses and more
difficult to justify.
In the meantime the
relevant political parties are engaged in the first priority activity, that is
trying to pin the blame and the cost on someone else. This could be very ugly. My questions are firstly where is Gazprom and
secondly where are the Germans, never mind the Chinese?
There are bigger and
broader questions behind all this. In
the next decade or two some sectors of the economy will contract and perhaps,
or maybe not, some will expand. If those
which depend on the public sector are those that might expand there is the
problem of how and with whose money?
This too, could be very
ugly. What hardly anyone is facing up to
or answering is the first question, what is on the way down and worse what is
going to go under?
To deal with this both
Westminster and Edinburgh are prone to look for a small number of very big
projects to back for media approval and to catch voters eyes with easy
headlines.
But these concentrate the
money and jobs when the urgent need is to spread them around a lot more in activities
that are as sustainable as possible and need work forces with varied and
different levels of skills. This does
not seem either to be happening or part of the thinking.
The infographic above
comes from The Enlightened Economist a blog for those who study economics and
is concerned with the business of publishing and the relevant technology. This is done by having the two aspects side
by side. What is clear is the gathering
speed of change and impact.
In other areas of economic
activity the story would be more complicated in some respects but still the
same basic principle is involved. It has
all become faster changing, more global and more unpredictable.
In the past we have had a
lot of five year plans. What of a world
where even a five month plan is rarely possible?
"what is going to go under?"
ReplyDeleteWe are - especially if we don't stop trying to control everything from the centre except when we outsource the decisions offshore.