George
Canning, Foreign Secretary and for a short time, Prime Minister, in the 1820’s
claimed he had brought The New World into existence to redress the balance of
the old.  The Foreign Office had done one
of its major gear shifts again.  
Having
rescued Spain  from Napoleon
just over a decade before, Britain 
was now allowing the Spanish Empire in South America to fall apart into a
number of independent states; Argentina 
This was
the politics of reality, if Spain France 
was certainly in the hunt and worse our former enemy the USA 
Britain
could offer diplomatic support for an emerging nation and access to goods and
services unobtainable from elsewhere. 
The logic for Argentina 
to be close to Britain Britain 
One price
was that Britain needed naval bases which a generation later would be coaling
stations in order to cover the route around Cape Horne for both its trade with
the West Coast of the Americas and parts of the East.  
The
Falklands, or Malvinas were a barren and unfriendly spot but a good shelter in
a storm and there were a lot of storms in the South
 Atlantic .  In time a few
people came and some remained.  They had
little to offer except grazing and a very quiet life, at least when the wind
wasn’t blowing.
In the
century that followed the importance of Argentina 
to Britain  is shown by the
appointment of Ministers Plenipotentiary to Buenos Aires 
Looking
down the list of names of these men they were top draw civil servants, people
who were very well connected and who had direct access to the highest in the land.  Argentina 
During this
time there was constant negotiation and work dealing with a range of matters at
the highest level.  What, therefore was
going on in relation to The Falklands, if it ever figured much in the
continuing relationships?
Were anyone
to “sweat” the Foreign Office files for all of this there will be a range of
treaties, agreements, negotiations and understandings that will be substantial.  This needs an expertise probably lost to the
present commercial managers at the Foreign Office.
But there
is likely to be a lot there and some of it critical to the present issue.  My purely amateur guess is that the 1881 to
1884 period of office of Sir George Glynn Petre may be a key period.  It was a time when the new Liberal Government
headed by Gladstone 
Today, we
have a Prime Minister who is not a man for detail and jumps in and out of
issues to suit the mood of the moment. 
He will need to get a grip on this because it has a nasty
potential.  Hague The Vague, the present
Foraging Secretary will not be much help.
Nor can we
hope for anything from the USA 
where the President sees the UK 
What will
matter will be the opinions of the substantial Latino component of the support
for the Democrat’s at present.  This is
likely to favour Argentina 
It is odd
that The Falklands dispute is not really about the Islands .  As a land investment they are almost
worthless.  It is what is in and under
the sea in what might be defined as its territorial waters that matters, for
those who can afford to put their hands on it. 
This is not
the nation states involved. Argentina 
is broke, the UK  is broke,
the USA  is broke and Europe  is broke. 
So the real future lies with the major corporations who do have the
money and the will.  
Who are
they and what do they want?
Excellent article, Demetrius.
ReplyDeleteI would question your idea that "So the real future lies with the major corporations who do have the money and the will."
ReplyDeleteThe Falklands are the extreme periphery of several collapsing Weltanschauung's. The idea that corporate worldviews and motivations will come into play on these remote and windswept isles is hopeful in the extreme.
They will probably become increasingly distant, remote, and unimportant.
Vis-a-vis the Falklands, it's 30 years since the last fracas, I know cos I was there. I hear the "We've no aircraft carriers/troops/logistics etc this time, and if the Argies invade again, we're fucked" arguments.
ReplyDeleteWe're a nuclear power, the Argies are not. We control the likes of "Blackwater" and others, The Argies are still flying the same fucking planes they did back then, and planes are only a threat if they happen to be in the air.
Last time the Falklands garrison was 30 men, 2 tug boats and a rubber raft, the contingent down there now is a tad more substantial. Any invasion will face stiff opposition, (AA missile batteries and a squadron of Typhoon euro fighters). Which will basically blow any invasion force out the water the minute they cross the 200 mile exclusion zone.
As for Obama, if he is so stupid as to stick his oar in, we can always pull our troops out of "SandboxII" and redeploy them elsewhere, and good luck with their new found Argie allies in the "Stans". I see that working out real well...
How excellently summarised Demetrios. However, Argentina is not surging ahead like Brazil, so impulsive actions from Argentina could be forthcoming. America does not need oil nearly so much now. Our superb armed forces at the moment seem to be deployed too much elsewhere. Our homeland is quite tiny. Our welfare outgoing is ridiculous. Where are the inspired statesmen we need.
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