What Price Democracy?

According to one politics commentator, who has been trying to run the figures, the UK, or what may be left of it, could be heading for a "perfect storm" in the coming election of 2015. The article is longish but readable and surveys the past.

The votes will not deliver either the government or the politics that we may really want in democratic terms.  As the article shows, this has happened all too often in the past.  This time round the implications could be worse.

In short since around 1950 the distortions between the voting and the first past the post system have sometimes delivered uncertain and even perverse results.

Additionally, after 1950 parties with substantial support, if that was widespread rather than concentrated in any area, would be left with very few seats or influence at the centre.

This has been the immediate political effect.  But there have been other effects of the imbalances in the system.  In many industrial areas dominated by Labour, their Conservative voters had little or no representation in Parliament.  In Conservative areas, their Labour voters also did not.

So in the two party "system" in the House of Commons, Labour was not in balance and nor were the Conservatives.  Worse still was the pork barrel effect in those constituencies that were marginal.  Money would be flung at them by both parties sometimes almost regardless of cost or the economic effects.

Add to this the trend to politics being dominated by limited elements of professional political agencies, media and limited access groups and you have further imbalances that remove government almost entirely from real activity or communities.

Also a political class that has dumped the old British Constitution for a set of mutually advantageous fixes to create a state where democracy does not exist in reality and government and that does not reflect the voter's wishes but those of contending corporate, agency or lobby groups.

So we have government of and by minorities, for minorities and against the wishes of any majority of the increasingly few who do vote or attempt to take an interest in politics.

Historically, this can result in a slide into disintegration, dictatorship or quasi-monarchy.

1746 And All That

There are many people saying many things about the financial markets and what is in play.  The small problem is that little of it is making much sense despite the valiant efforts of all the experts to indicate that some, if only minimal, process of logic is at work.

Money And Markets today takes us back to the good times of 1746 in a post on international bond markets.  This was the time of the War of the Austrian Succession that kept Europe busy between 1740 and 1748 (see Wiki etc.).

This conflict, now rarely to be even mentioned in schools or much elsewhere, was one of the 18th Century conflicts that was a World War in effect involving action in the America's and in The East. In North America it was known as King George's War and in India it provided the impetus for the creation of the early Raj.

One of the side shows was the attempt by Prince Charles Stuart to seize the British throne in 1745 that ran out of men, money and organisation in 1746 ending in the Battle of Culloden.  The Hanoverians and their supporters held on to power with the help of Hessian troops. 

If Prince Charles had been backed by Maria Theresa of Austria instead of the shifty French he might have had more luck, or to the point, more money.  But there was still the problem that Hanover was allied to Prussia, and King Frederick The Great.

The article also mentions 1789 as another similar year.  The French Revolution is the item that usually dominates history, omitting that George Washington became the first President of the USA.  Which of these developments, if either, was a good thing is a subject for debate.

All this being so, aside from other intriguing historical avenues to follow, we could be in for some interesting times.  The Governor of the Bank of England has said that sometime soon interest rates must rise 

It has always been my view that you could not continue to depress these for too long without serious distortions arising as well as other longer term problems.

The Coalition government, in line with the USA, Europe and others do not want this to happen because it will mean that they will have to address some awkward realities that will entail unpopular decisions at unwanted times.

So what will happen when?  Might it be under way already, or will the big shifts come along in weeks, or months?  It is unlikely to be many years, the stresses building up are too strong.

Where will the markets be then?

1637?

Keeping Up Is Hard

There were two articles in parallel yesterday both bearing on the questions of Energy and the economies of the world.  They both demand concentrated reading.  The first is from Finite World that points out some of the issues involved.  The second is from Energy Matters on China.

It could be difficult to try to keep up and more so to expand the investment needed to maintain energy supplies to meet population growth and continuing economic expansion.

Quote:

What the IEA has inadvertently stumbled upon is the reason why oil limits are a problem, and in fact, the reason why energy limits in general are a problem. It looks like there are plenty of resources available and plenty of ways to reduce energy use through mitigation. In fact, it becomes to impossible to finance everything that needs to be done.

An energy-providing device, or an energy-saving mitigation, requires up front payment. This payment reflects the fact that oil and other scarce resources (high priced metals, for example) need to be used in creating these devices. Oil and other scarce resources need to be used in developing new oil, gas and coal fields and power plants as well.

This puts pressure on both debt markets and on scarce resources. At some point, the use of scarce resources becomes too great, and debt needs become too high. The projects with high up-front costs are among the worst contributors.

The plan to keep adding more and more debt doesn’t work. The economy is growing too slowly. People’s salaries are not rising to match the higher costs involved. The locations where the debt is needed are not in the part of the world with adequate banking services.

It is the inability to finance all of the investment that is needed that will bring the system down. Resource scarcity will be behind the scenes, playing a role as well, but its problems will be hidden behind the problems of financing the needed energy investments.

Unquote.

The second full article in parallel is an intricate read about the situation in China as it is developing and is not good news.  It ends as follows:

Quote:

Economic growth in China has been in lock step with coal production of roughly 10% per annum. I have for a long time been expecting coal production to lag economic growth and that this lag may subsequently become a drag.

The switch to coal imports is the first sign of this happening and when Chinese energy imports once again hit global energy prices this will create a drag on the global economy and China.

Unquote.

The effects will be worse and more damaging in some places rather than others.  Take your pick.

Singing For Her Supper

Harriet Harman is reported as saying that the publicly funded Arts should be inclusive etc. etc.  Her evidence for this is that at a couple of visits to venues, one the Royal Albert Hall for a BBC Prom and the other the Royal Opera House, she perceives that the audience is entirely made up of white, middle class members of the Metropolitan Elite.

Given her status and ancestry this is rich.  It is also inaccurate, removed from reality and a cheap political stunt at the easiest shots.  A decade ago some in the media made statements of this kind and wildly preaching fascism leading me to complain to both the Press Complaints Council and the BBC Trust.

It was pointed out to them that because of the ignorance, failure to examine the facts and the nature of the prejudices and discriminatory views of those media people making the remarks they had managed to be homophobic, anti semitic, racist, ageist and metropolitan media elite class biased.

A choice example of this was a TV interval item at a concert where we were and the alleged press "expert" was ranting on much as Harriet does.  Then the camera moved to the Arena of the Hall and lit on an elderly lady.  She was a Polish refugee of the Jewish faith who as a child had survived Auschwitz but lost her family there. 

The camera then moved across tourists from Asia, a group of unwilling Italian students whose tutor had them doing a culture thing and then some "horribly" white males, according to the "expert", who as it happened referred to themselves as the Pink Centre.

Of the audience, very few lived in Central London, a small number from inner suburbs, some from the outer ring but many from up to a hundred miles.  Add to that not only tourists but others down for a weekend or a few days in town and you have a very mixed bag.   

Both the RAH and the ROH are open to all.  Anyone can go online, telephone the box office or walk into the building to the box office counters and buy a ticket for whatever events are going on.  It is a matter of personal choice, no more, no less. 

In relation to these complaints I ran the figures, clearly Harriet did not bother to attempt basic arithmetic or available statistics. The BBC Proms for example are in the Royal Albert Hall which has a maximum capacity of 5272 or when restricted 3971. 

There are over 70 Proms in the two month season let alone more concerts elsewhere.  There is a considerable variety of music, sources and it is quite wide in scope.  It is world based for a world audience.  In the hall itself there is an international audience.  My calculations, based on substantial experience suggest this could come to over 250,000 different people at least with a throughput of around 25,000 in the Arena alone. 

The Royal Opera House is open around 300 times in the main house with 2268 places, with the studio Linbury theatre and other performance areas.  The productions in the main house and Linbury are almost all multiple performances meaning many different people attending.  Even allowing for those who attend on a number of occasions my informed estimate is around 400,000 a year.    

There is a degree of overlap between the RAH and the ROH, but not many because the diversity of musical interest.  So my estimate is that these two alone could have an base of at least 500,000  who attend the performances.  It could be as many as 750.000 depending on the run of the actual figures.  Beyond them are those who listen and watch.  By no stretch of the imagination is this a restricted elite given the extent of those attending and the variations in types of productions.        

Harriet also omits to mention that those who do go pay for their seats or standing positions and some are cheap and some are not. A few of the audience may be on expenses but not many.  The RAH and ROH may be subsidised but to describe them simply as "publicly funded" is remote from the truth.

What was she watching?  Why didn't she tell us?  As a politician she is far more subsidised than most of us and there was the hidden subsidy of her presence in central London.  She went once last week and so did we. 

The performances during the week were two operas and a triple ballet.  Was she there for the beheading of elitist nuns?  Or the execution of political dissidents by firing squad?  Or was it the ballet fantasy featuring Bottom, a new modern dance one based on brain function and the last a satire with a good bit of slapstick? 

Because these are works largely from the past and for what is a minority audience relative to the modern entertainment market, it does not mean that the situation is as of the past. What is more is that these are not single audiences. It is many audiences across differing types of production.  At the ROH that for "The Nutcracker" ballet is not the same as that of "The Ring" opera cycle is an example.  The matinee's bring in a range of people. 

In marketing terms it is not a simple segment, it is a complex set of groups that varies in many ways reflecting the very many and differing performance types and activities at the ROH and the RAH as well, just check out the web sites.

That persons who are considered to be or recognised as members of the political and social elites might be seen at the ROH or RAH is neither unusual nor unexpected.  Moreover they are to be found at many different events or shows, sometimes voluntarily and sometimes as a part of their duties.

There are many more of the elites to be found at football matches and live performances of popular music.  This does not make the rest of the audience an elite group any more than the presence of the Emperors of Rome and their retinues at the Circus of Rome conferred elite status on the many thousands of plebeians.

If you looking for an elite at either the ROH or the RAH then they are simple to find.  They are the performers and the supporting staff and attendants.  They are why the audiences are there and it is their quality of performance that brings them in.  They are both among the world's best venues.

There have been places were elitism is rife, in its way.  In the 1970's and 1980's the Liverpool ground at Anfield had crowds that were almost rabid in the belief of their particular elite status. This attitude has been encountered at quite a number of other sporting venues among elements of the crowds. 

At the old Cardiff Arms Park they had a very elitist view of the Welsh rugby teams.  And as for the time I played against Pontypridd, believe me, this was encountering elitism at its most physical. 

But it has not been encountered at Covent Garden or at other musical or theatrical venues.  As for  the Arena Prommers at the Royal Albert Hall having done that for a few years it is a strange form of a very temporary and floating international job lot with a high turnover.  Outside the Hall we were frankly a scruffy and plebian group.

If Harriet wants to see what an elite is really like she might try Horseguards Parade for Trooping The Colour.  As a former squaddie I would be delighted to put her through some foot drill to get the sense of it.

At least then she would know what she was talking about.

Another Day Another Mess

The bankers have not gone away, they are still finding holes in their accounts and bigger holes in those of some of their customers.

Another trip to the payday lenders will be needed by those customers of Coutts who put their trust and more sadly, their money, into one of that banks wheezes.  Coutts in recent years has been one of the choicer properties of the Royal Bank of Scotland.

What my bank, the one that the government put my tax money into, I ask?  Why did it do that?  Possibly because with so many Labour members from Scotland then and in government they felt under pressure to do so.

What kind of men we might ask were running that bank in the past?  Who were the traders, the managers and the senior economists who shaped the decisions?  It is clear that they were men who offered false prospects on distorted data and perhaps were in a Celtic mist of blind optimism.

One of the fashionable areas of mathematical study allied to management and organisation is that of Game Theory.  I recall once a long time ago being acquainted with a poker school which had Game theorists pitted against neo-Keynesians all hoping for senior positions in business.  Guess who lost.

If money is all a game then according to this research, we humans might be better served in our financial needs by putting banks under the management of chimpanzees.  It is not just their skills, perhaps their morals and ethical responses may be better and more reliable.

And other things.

Life Is Full Of Surprises

This has been an astonishing week.  On Monday the doorbell rang.  Wondering whether to hide behind the settee in case it was a sales person, decided it was a little early and took a chance.

It was a man who had come to read the electric meter.  There have been visits in the past, rare, where such a man came and went away.  Afterwards nothing happened. 

The readings never made it to the supply company computer and my opinion was that they were checking to ensure that it was not covered in magnets or had some device to limit the record of use in the way recommended to me by many blokes in pubs.

After a succession of tiresome disputes in the past about direct debits, the estimates of use and the billing for a long time I have read the meter and then at one time phoned them in or recently entered them online.

Mostly this has gone well, but from time to time they have tried to slip an estimate past me, easily spotted because of the large difference, higher, in the size of the bill.

Then, only three days later in the post, came the latest bill that was due.  It was amazing, I was transfixed, to use a polite word.  It was for a figure said to be the reading and looked about right. 

Grabbing the torch I was into the meter cupboard in seconds and then staggered out in a state of deep shock.  The bill had been based on the actual reading.  It must be many years since this last happened.

Out of ordinary politeness I went online to pay the bill.  But the bank computer had thrown a hissy fit so I went back to the past, wrote a cheque and put it in the post.

I wonder if it will get there?

Durham Light Infantry

In the coverage of the seventieth anniversary of the Normandy Landings in June 1944, as well as the story of The Great Escape by one veteran from a care home denied leave to attend but who got there, this picture took my eye.

It is Ken Scott, formerly Sergeant in the Durham Light Infantry, probably the 9th Battalion. The Divisional Symbol is the Jerboa, the Desert Rat, of the 7th Armoured Division who arrived immediately after the initial landings.

It is copied above.  The other picture is of Berlin in July 1945 when the same battalion formed part of the Allied Victory Parade and were saluted by the leaders of the Allied armies.

Some of those who landed made it to Berlin.  Their long march started at El Alamein.

Remember.