Will There Be A Welcome In The Valleys?

Among the many promises for the future being flung about in the debate on the Labour leadership election there are those to take us back to what was to make what will be.  Some are easier than others.  The promise of new coal mines sounds easy but is not.

This UK Coal web site gives a fair amount of basic information related to deep mining.  It had two mines, Thoresby and Kellingley, both gone.  They had been kept going with government support which ended.  This has to do not simply with subsidy and debt but climate policy and carbon emissions.

Is Labour talking about far more extensive open cast mining across Wales and the odd drift mine for specialist coals?  If it is deep mines then the idea that opening new ones in South Wales will be a restoration to existing communities they need to think again.

Assuming Labour win in 2020 it would take a good ten years to create new deep mines, if not more.  By that time just how many of those former deep mines communities have gone?  Probably most of them and in a number of areas all leaving a remnant body of labour.

Also, such deep mines will need thick seams over extensive areas to allow modern methods to be applied. The deeper and more you go means serious challenges in geology and the physics; do I need to go into the air and water issues?

Then there is the subsidence.  Having lived in worked in mining areas this is a major issue.  What is to be done with all the waste?  Take it back down again?  Dump it in the sea?  Put on top of hills to create mountains for winter sports?

Are the proposals made in the hope of achieving continuing and real profits?  Or is the idea that state subsidies here will allow benefits and savings elsewhere in energy use or overall impact?  They might be creating jobs, money flows raising taxes and reducing benefits.

Inevitably, this raises many questions about the existing energy companies, probably regarded as candidates for state control.  But the money realities remain.  Will highly subsidised mining need high energy prices to pay for it?  Back to square one as they used to say in the 1930's but there is a price to be paid, one way or another.

If the mantra is jobs and incomes to communities it would be a very expensive and risky way of doing it.  The question is could money be spent on other forms of job creation which would yield far better and more reliable returns?   What other economic activities are possible without wrecking the environment?

Not least will be the wage and benefits levels for those who do the work.  Presumably, Labour does not want cheap labour.  To make the figures work better importing low wage labour from the East might make sense to private operators.

Given the muddle of thinking in the Labour Party they are all too likely to import the labour for the new state mines and then pay them top dollar, especially if the locals don't like the idea of going down or working in mines.

Bring back the trolley buses.

Taking The High Road

The coverage of Roman Obramavich's recent visit in his splendid personal cruise liner, alleged "yacht", to the Clyde along with several men of like mind and money excited some of the media.

It made a change from St. Tropez where he has a large villa and floating around the beach at Pampelonne, surveying the scenery and murmuring "Phwoar" as he sips his vintage Chateau Paysan.

Inevitably, it led to ideas about him "investing" in a local soccer club, notably Morton F.C. located in Greenock, a once leading club recently having hard times.  Why he should so when other matters may have been on his mind was not considered; football being of supreme interest.

There was the suggestion that he was copying the example of The Royal Family only bigger and better.  I would like think he was following in the footsteps of Felix Mendelssohn and also visiting the home town of Hamish MacCunn; if musically inclined, but this is a long shot.

Two of my four great grandfather's spent their working lives in the boiler rooms of ocean going ships.  One, born in Greenock but of an Ayr family, worked for the Greenock Steamship Company and its successor.  His wife, daughter of a ship's carpenter, was also born there.

Her father was well acquainted with the local magistrates because of his fighting skills, according to the Court Reports in the local newspapers of the time.  Nevertheless one of her near cousins was a founder of Morton F.C., because of his Temperance interests, shared with Great Grandfather.  Life is never simple.

Roman and friends went walkabout on the Isle of Arran, another ancestral acreage, fishermen and run riggers, to add to it, which prompted the thought, how much of it, if any, does any of them own and where is title to it located?

Which leads to the question of just how much of Scotland do members of this group own on the same basis?  Personally, I would doubt that their property and land portfolios will be restricted to London.  But like London, ownership will be off shore in a reliable little haven.

The obvious attractions in the past of investing in Scottish land would have meant that they could have large scale interests.  As we are too aware north of the Border the right money put into the right hands can work wonders.

If Donald Trump, currently more interested in taking over the USA, cheaper and easier to run, could do it, why couldn't some of Russia's biggest operators?

Has anyone been watching GazProm lately?  This is only the beginning.

Not Playing The Game

In case you didn't notice the main football season in England and Wales has kicked off this weekend.  One reason you may have failed to pick up on this is that despite last season ending in theory there have been a great many matches for this or that reason.

The news and attention given to the game has been relentless whether or not teams are playing for other reasons.  The bodies running the game, once regarded as august assemblies of noble men giving time to their sport seem to be just like other money men.

The players may still be role models but in a very different way of life and in their personal habits and frailties.  On top of it all the ownership, managing and financing of clubs is now a different world.  Last but not least whereas once football on TV was a rare and special event, now there is more than enough, if you want to pay.

One can only sit there with jaw hung open when learning of the deal for West Ham United to use the former London Olympic Stadium.  You are paying for that as a taxpayer, whether you like it or football or not.

What of the game itself?  It was over 70 years ago when an uncle on leave took me to watch a local wartime match between leading clubs.  I have been in many grounds since and have watched a good deal on TV.  Clicking the remote to put it on these days is not a given, it is more that there isn't much else to watch.

Given the expansion of football and the extent of marketing you would imagine that its future is assured.  But is it?  Is the game becoming less interesting the more it becomes detached from ordinary life and in particular the technical playing systems now meaning that defensive tactics are in the ascendant?

Also, it there now just too much?  But at the same time the contraction of hope of the big prizes into the hands of a few clubs with the biggest money support has removed many of the ups and downs that were a key part of the interest and excitement.

Add to all the this the extra tournaments put on to get the continuing TV coverage and money and the expanded programmes of international matches and it all begins to become a lot to take.  In the last decade or so there has been a major expansion of all this and this seems to be continuing.

In short there is an over supply and one more difficult to control or to understand. There are other factors too, the general social and economic changes at work in our urbanised districts that gave birth and sustained the modern football industry.  Will their new populations have the interest in this?

Is the football industry another big financial bubble that could burst, if not soon, then in the foreseeable future?  It is only a game and becoming a less interesting one coupled with becoming remote from its traditional supporter base and more reliant on a much more fickle viewing public.

With the expansion of TV and communications facilities there are a lot more things to watch, or do, or follow than a football industry that is becoming boring, part of the past and too often unattractive and tiresome in its people as well.

Sounding Out The Past

The news of the week has been a time for some reflections and to consider the odd connections that arise.  One major event for the media and many people is the sad and tragic loss of Cilla Black and a pity of it is the silly things that are said and how few understand where she came from in all senses.

Then there has been the ongoing business of the alleged end of the Labour Party with the rise of Jeremy Corbyn to head the leadership race.  I cannot claim to have forecast this, only to point out that history tells us the unexpected can happen in politics.

What is intriguing here is that his elder brother, Piers, an activist of the Left scientist, is in the business, real business, of weather forecasting.  His record here seems to be patchy, which is unlucky for those businesses for whom the weather is important.

Another loss which drew obituaries in a couple of the "quality" press and academic journals is that of Robert Conquest the Anglo-American historian and poet.  Once a Communist before 1939, at Oxford inevitably, he moved on to the Oxford and Buckinghamshire Light Infantry for the war.

This was the old 52nd, an interesting regiment.  His experiences led to his moving to The Right.  More to the point he became one of the leading academics and crucial to the business of deconstructing what the Soviet Union had meant to its people, especially during the time of Stalin.  During the War, he had been held up as one of the giants of politics and statesmanship.

Robert pitched up at the London School of Economics in 1956 in time to be with Ralph Miliband, Michael Oakeshott, Donald Cameron Watt, WN Medlicott, the International Historian, Allen the statistician, Carus-Wilson and Fisher, the economic historians, a mob of Keynesians, the early researchers into game theory; and a rugby club, largely Welsh, who debagged Lord Boothby in Soho.

One of my choice memories is in 1959 at the LSE when the Soviet Ambassador was allowed out to play with the other children in the shape of making a speech.  These were rare events and the place was packed.  Also, there was a rare collection of security hoods on the fringes.

We were confidently informed that within a decade the GNP of the USSR was to equal that of the USA and then surpass it during the 1970's, relegating it to a declining imperialist state. It meant that the USSR would be able to pursue its policies of bringing peace, happiness, wealth and contentment to its friends and neighbours.

Alas he was not well briefed but that did not matter to the believers and the non-believers did not get to ask any questions.  But there were some there who had not bought into the Stalinism then so fashionable amongst many of the Western Left.  My problem was that I seen some of the files which told me that the Soviets were as mad as hatters.

So what I find curious about Corbyn and friends was that by the late 1960's and into the 70's when it was becoming more evident to enquiring minds that the USSR was not a vision for the future and that Stalin's record was a horror that they rejected this in favour of the propaganda on offer.

In Britain however, the politicians staggered on and on failing to solve problems and creating new ones.  There were much relieved by the fact that much of the population had become fixated on a pop culture rooted in the sales needs of recording companies and show biz.  Which brings us back to Cilla.

Born on my parent's patch as Priscilla Maria Veronica White her parents had a shop down the road from the ones where my parents had worked, my mother was a White, no connection established, and at the end of the street where my grandfather was born, so there is a natural sympathy for the lady.

She became in time Mrs. Willis.  At the other end of that street you were getting close to the Liverpool workshops of the Willis Organ makers, very much a leading firm.  In the 19th Century, one of the early founding family, Edwin Willis, who moved up to Liverpool, in 1881 was still in London, living next door to Karl Marx.

A man much admired and followed by the two activist Corbyn brothers but rejected by Robert Conquest and those who prefer his line of thinking on what real socialism means.  Mrs. Thatcher was a shop girl who went on to higher things and poor Cilla was often criticised by media and pop people for giving her some support.

But one of the thinkers who shaped Mrs. Thatcher's views of international affairs and the reality of the historical background was Robert Conquest.  Indeed Conquest's work and its influence on so many people in the free world and on perceptions of the USSR, communism and its socialist outriders was critical to much of the course of late 20th Century history.

There is a good deal of Willis organ playing at this year's BBC Proms. if I listen to any perhaps I will raise a glass to Robert and Cilla, but not to Jeremy.

Blanking The Screen

In our modern world an oft told tale is one of problems with the computer.  Not just the little things we have at home which cannot tolerate updates and unlucky errors but the bigger ones on which so much of our lives now depend.

Recently, the disturbing and nasty business of the Post Office computer system whose internal glitches resulting from revisions and trying to marry new functions with old systems etc. resulted in a slaughter of innocents among the postmasters of small offices who had problems with the accounts.

There is some feeling in this because lately I had problems with an august and high status organisation using a service which sent its payments to I think one of the outer galaxies.  As one of my few talents is being a deleted nuisance who knows how to look for a weakness it was dealt with.

But only eventually and after something of a slogging match.  The poor postmasters who went to gaol on the basis of what is alleged to be false evidence and refusal to produce information, as well as those bankrupted and suffering heavy losses had few to listen or to help.  Then there is the suicide.

Also, they could not get at the essential information.  The Post Office claims that they investigated and found no problems and the government have accepted this and retailed it as the most convenient answer, given the potential for damages.

"Private Eye" to its credit has been nagging away for some time but the other media has not.  But if this conduct is now almost the norm and the effect of cut price software from crony contracts, corruption, poor maintenance, lack of will to pay the price of new robust systems and do it properly is the stream of breakdowns, costly blunders which others pay for, and the rest, then we need to be wary.

Because there is a big one out there waiting to happen.  If it does all that has gone before will be small fry as we all roast in the fires of the collapse of payments, transactions, savings and the lot.  This is a little long but not much and very easy to understand.

Perhaps at the supermarket, when the ATM finally does get repaired, I might tap in my pass code and bring the world to an end.

France - A Failed State

With all the noise about the continuing crisis at Calais, there is one matter that should concern all.  The Calais Dover rail and sea links are one of the crucial trade and communications junctions in both European and World trade.

Yet the French authorities, they cannot be called government, have failed to cope with a small number of disorganised but determined individuals either each alone or in groups.  They have been given literally the run around by them.  Their answer is to blame anybody and everybody else.

This is the standard response of the incompetent and foolish who have either made major blunders or who lack the capability and intellect to deal with even relatively simple problems.  One possible reason is that the French pay too much attention to intellectuals and too little to the practical application of mind over matter.

To all intents and purposes and looking over the full range of activity France has become a failed state that cannot see its own failure or begin to understand why it has happened.  So its leaders puff and posture and engage in the sorry dirty and corrupt politics that has been its downfall.

To fully examine this would take a big book covering many fields that might begin with the time of King Louis XIV and take in three centuries of history.  In journal or blog form it could run to one of those very long items that you might just put off reading.  So this is short and blunt.

There was a time when France could claim to exercise leadership in both Europe and the World in many respects and it was common for many in America, Britain and many other places to see Paris as the place to go to inform the mind and see the future.  Now it is just another tourist dump with low grade government and financial facilities located there as a legacy of the past.

In 1789 the French revolted against an entrenched monarchy and elite that was European in scope and connections.  The French saw themselves as prisoners in their own country and serfs to rulers who were unaccountable and held them in contempt.

In 2015 France has allowed itself to be governed by an entrenched political and administrative class and controlled by a European intellectual elite that is unaccountable and dictates the rules and styles of life.

It is a pensioner of the EU, its agriculture depends on vast subsidies, its industry on state contracts and its investment on state spending fuelled by debt that is out of control.

In many ranges of human thought and activity at one time France was among the leaders of the world in science, the arts, literature and other fields.  This is no longer the case.  There are still a number of able and notable people but the French are now rarely leaders they are mostly followers and in some cases are a long way behind.

It is not that France is trapped in its longer past.  That is long since gone and is history.  It has allowed itself to be taken over by a creature of its own creation, the EU.  It assumed that because of history and its central role it could always be the final authority in the EU.

But then the EU expanded and in doing so distributed power to others who looked elsewhere for leadership.  The Euro was introduced and the Germans put the War behind them and took over the reins of power having the money and political direction to do so.

By promoting the expansion of the EU and the Euro and the rest of the control systems as well France has fallen into the trap of its own making.  Intended to curb other major states and notably Britain, France is now subsidiary to others and paying the price.

It's internal politics have long been corrupt and a severe hindrance to good government.  If anything Europe has worsened this to the point where it is so extensive and necessary for function that France's major decisions depend on it.

So there is employment protection that almost guarantees unemployment.  A benefits system for the least deserving.  And administration that does not administer and a legal system that protects crime and criminals.  Then there is all the debt and to whom it is owed.

It has long been a joke about France that how can you govern a country with 400 Cheeses and 1000 variations of these, all distinctive and with strict rules of production.

But the EU now rules that powdered milk can be used.

The Games A' Foot

There is no shortage of "news" of all kinds and for the average world watcher it seems that the rate of earth spin is increasing rapidly.  In the USA, President Obama has reverted to every politicians last hope, doing personal tours to other places to boost the image.  But he is a lucky man, the Republican opposition seems to be doing all it can to help the Democrats.

But which Democrat?  Many have assumed that as it was Mrs. Clinton who ran the shop when Bill was on his travels and following his own interests she might as well have a shot at the President job herself.  Now there is talk of Obama going for a third term.

This sorry tale of Washington DC will not be enough to put them off because by the time it happens they will be home and dry and draining off the proceeds into all those personal accounts that people of this kind keep these days.  In any case there are other things to occupy the voters.

Gawping at the TV tells us that leading soccer teams from Europe are abroad, some in the USA and some in China.  For once I was actually sorry for the players.  At Zangchou (there are many spellings but this was the one at the side of the pitch) where Real Madrid played Inter Milan not only was the heat hitting 40 C but it was very humid and the air quality bad.

In Charlotte, North Carolina, PSG St. Germaine, a French side with few Frenchmen met Chelsea, an English side with few English, for another dogfight which had much snapping at heels and fouls galore.  The conditions were not as bad as the other but it was still a hot and bothered game.

Yet in a few days these teams will be launching on busy seasons with many demands.  The media and TV coverage will be as great as ever and about as informative as much of our political.  There will be big story after big story but all lacking in key information and all short of any certainty as to success and failure.

In football necessarily many more will fail than succeed.  This is the way the money goes.  In politics once the idea was that those engaged would enable many more winners than losers, if only to get the votes.  But the tangle they are in because of the incessant political versions of fouling and malpractice means we are in a world where there are far more losers than winners.

This is bad news for the stability of states and nations which will find their populations becoming more wayward and intractable.  When you add to that what is happening in the banking and financial systems these are about as reliable and sensible, if not less, than what goes on in football transfers and money flows.

As many of the newly wealthy players and those who pay for them and finance them are at present up to the hilt in the many property booms around the world there is a delicate balance between success and failure as on the pitch which is mirrored in our politics.

In China the markets have just taken a big tumble and whether the government can pump enough back into them to restore them is a real question.  In America the question is when are rates of interest going to approach reality again and become a necessary condition of the markets.

For both easy money and pump priming and all the rest has gone on for seven years now to keep all the games going, in politics as well as soccer.  China is said to have played a form of football centuries age, see picture above, and then lost the art much as they are losing the arts of finance.

Someone once had a theory about seven year cycles, that also was a long time ago so we have forgotten.

We may soon remember and the real games will begin.