Something To Chew Over

Today we were lucky enough to get our hands on some fresh English asparagus, late this year, but as welcome as ever.  The issue now is how big a helping?  Another one is that the price is going up steadily, year by year, and more than inflation.  So do we keep up our consumption in parallel with past years or do we economise?

An alternative is that rather than buying local produce to seek out the less costly alternatives flown in for very distant parts as part of bulk cargo and then distributed through depots where it is washed and packaged.  However, it is not as good and moreover some comes from soils becoming degraded year by year.

The local produce is from suppliers who operate much closer to the margin and who are vulnerable to any significant adverse variation in their financial situation.  They are not the sort of people who can find credit easily to tide them over.

The computer driven centralised financial management systems used by banks and others are not geared to this kind of operation and are less favourably looked at because the returns and margins demanded by them are often unaffordable by the small independent supplier.

Locally, we now seem to be becoming close to a situation where the number of local and regional suppliers and their network depends on a certain kind of customer with either the time or the resources or the will to make the effort to engage with this kind of retail activity.

For the big supermarket chains around people like us are of little account because we are a minority, variable, possibly ageing and one only just worth while providing stock for.  The evidence for this is on the shelves.  You have to hunt around for the specialist produce and the choice is limited.

At present we cannot be certain what the overall financial situation and its impact will be in the short term.  It is difficult to believe all the spin and chatter about how this or that might grow or this or that monetary wheeze will bring back prosperity.  What is happening at the margins suggests otherwise.

Looking back over decades it seems to be that the reality is that people in the middling and middle to low groups, a very large proportion of the population are facing shrinking real incomes, the inability to save, scant returns on any saving and taxation take that is creeping up in effect and down the income scales.

In terms of employment while there may be more people now in jobs, they are not the same as jobs in the past.  Also the recent employment legislation and the rest means that for any small operator it is madness to offer regular employment in the terms of former decades.  The larger employers now work on a different basis for the most part.

So if for those in work and perhaps at levels of income that are theoretically more comfortable the future is far less secure, a job change is always on the horizon or nearer and how far the money might or will go is very uncertain, what will they be doing?

Food in the past was once one of the major parts of outlay.  For a time it became less and with more choice and availability.  What happens if the food costs go up more than incomes or inflation and both this consumption and other expenditure has to be adjusted?  We are being warned that generally that food prices are set to rise steadily in the future.

The picture above is “The Gleaners” by Millet; Grandma had a copy in her living room.  As a young housewife she had to contend with a family food budget that amounted to around forty percent of the household income.  There wasn’t much left for either luxuries or conspicuous consumption.

Each spear of our asparagus cost close to 20 pence each.  There was a time when I could buy a three course meal in an ABC restaurant in London for less than that.

Tales Of The Unexpected

When there is an event or series of events that dominate the news over a period of several days what you need to watch out for is what else might be going on.  This might be matters which would be reported normally.  It might be things which at least would get some currency.

It is a time to keep a close eye on government statements or information slipped out during such a period to avoid close attention.  Others include material from companies or organisations that might be unwelcome either for governments or their major backers.

The difficulty is that because this ploy is now so well known it is wise to assume that almost anyone wanting to bury bad news will take advantage of it.  The upshot is that as well as “big stories” dominating the media there will be a flood of other material that deserves attention at the same time.

One very interesting item cropped up in Zero Hedge today that has been picked up by Tax Justice Network amongst others.  It relates to astonishing figures produced by the ECB, European Central Bank, in their All Country Report.

Who is richer than who and who for that matter is poorer is not as we expected it to be. The report; possibly may have appeared earlier but its findings are so surprising as to be explosive in the present situation in the Eurozone.

Deutschland, Deutschland unter alles, it seems.  This seems to agree with the instincts of the man on the Wuppertal Tram who thinks that the Germans have been getting a raw deal.  This will have been compounded by the fact that the new cars of the Tram are to be built in Spain.

It is not a long article and when you have worked out the diagrams you will find that many of your recent assumptions are very wrong.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-04-10/total-fiasco-germans-are-poorest-cypriots-second-richest-eurozone

At the came time and connected there has been a flood of information on tax avoidance and evasion, including the recent Wikileaks release of e-mails that embarrassed President Hollande of France, who is now rushing around denouncing tax havens.

For a “primer” on all this at present you can go to the link below, and start looking around.  If you do then you might be late to bed.  At least you can skip down the listing and that will indicate the extent.

http://www.icij.org/blog/2013/04/highlights-offshore-leaks-so-far?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+GlobalMuckraker+%28The+Global+Muckraker%29

Doubtless there are some dedicated bloggers out there who are giving the government web sites a good going over to see what choice specimens of deceit, evasion, bad news, worse news or terrible news there is.

The trouble is that so often in the past it is so easy to miss or pass over the item which turns out to be a key issue or event.  This may already have happened or be about to happen.

Learning And Living In The Past

Having been in the toils of downloads, updates, backups full computer and documents and the rest it is refreshing to return to the business of wondering what to do and why to do it.  Welcome to the age of computer, making life simpler and allowing more leisure time.

We have just been given our information on matters which demand online access, passwords and all that.  All we want to do is check up on the account not set off a nuclear war.  Apparently, it is all necessary because of “security”.

But when looking at the web sites for security experts, sad perhaps but it’s a better way to get frit than playing the games or reading economic forecasts, they tell me that there is no such thing as privacy and for that matter when venturing forth to buy the lottery tickets every move will be followed by something in the sky.

The youngest generations are used to all this and take it for granted.  That there was a time when you could watch TV without your choice of channel, other options and advertisement attention being monitored seems strange and unworldly to them.

Has there ever been an age when the gap between the generations in the understanding of reality and the way the world works has been so great.  When what might once have been taken for granted is lost and what is might be purely transitory?

All of which brings us to the understanding of history.  How far can those used to modern facilities and communications comprehend how things went on or worked in ages without them?  One feature is the time lags of the past. 

When the longer past is considered the time distance between say London and far flung places in the world could be measured in weeks and even months.  Even within the Atlantic Isles it might be days and sometimes even weeks.

Never mind the mechanics of producing documents and information.  Now on the web it is sometimes possible to do in minutes what might have taken weeks and involving a good deal of travel.  Click, click and if you are lucky up it comes.

Some things you might never have found at all.  When we look at the past and at both official and unofficial documents there is then the problem of what is not there.  It may not have been known.  It may not have been mentioned.  It may never have been recorded.  With the web now so much cannot be recovered.

Often we are left with the stories, or the spin, or what made it into print or into the diaries of people who may or more often may not have been diligent in either recording facts or bothering to discover them. 

At present I have been turning up items in old newspapers which put a different light on many things, putting these together with other information it throws a different light on many aspects of the past.  It means that things taken for granted, assumed and told are not at all what is expected.

What is worrying in all the hurly burly of the last few days is both the lack of understanding in the ways things were and indeed the basic facts.  The media which you might hope has some basis is in fact the worst of sources in many respects.

Much of the other comment, even by people who should know better has been infantile.  If this is the way we conduct our affairs in government at present then heaven help us.

Question, which famous person, recently deceased, was descended from men like the above?

Mrs. Margaret Thatcher, An Appraisal

When Mrs. Thatcher became Prime Minister in 1979 she and her administration were taking over a wreck of an economy.  The industrial structure of the post war period had mostly collapsed.  Districts that had been prosperous and the basis for much of the real wealth had declined into shadows of their former selves.

Much of the attempted state intervention in development had failed rarely making much if anything of any return and we had the problem of industries and activities in a state of terminal failure being propped up and others on life support of subsidy and tax breaks.

Sometimes in the 1970’s it seemed that almost everything was being paid for by government who were struggling to raise the taxes to pay for it.  The Trade Unions for the most part simply added to the problems.  They basically wanted a state machine in which the 1950's status quo would be perpetuated in a world now changing radically.

Then there had been the massive inflation which had not only distorted whole sectors of the economy and public services but which had disrupted any realistic planning or financing and created huge injustices.  Quite literally by the summer of 1979 in financial terms few people really knew what they were doing.

In 1978 to 1979 there had been the Winter of Discontent with extensive strike action across public services and industry as the major trade unions tried to overturn the actions of the then Labour Government to try to contain the financial crisis.

Was Mrs. Thatcher the best person to tackle this?  It is no good looking down history to past Prime Ministers; this was another time in another world.  Who was around then? 

There was no Liberal in sight after the debacle of Jeremy Thorpe’s leadership.  In the Labour Party the choice was between Callaghan, on the way out, Healey, who had carried the bag, Benn very much of the active hard socialism and Foot of the almost inactive soft intellectual socialism.  Healy might have had the ability.

By 1979 the division between the respective wings of the Labour Party, wrongly called “Right” and “Left” possibly more accurately Dissenting Social and Marxist had become almost a split.  This was aggravated by the Maoist and connected hard line elements who were influential in some key districts.

There was nobody else within the Conservatives then to really lead convincingly.  Heath had gone off to sulk and the others did not have either the clout or that particular media friendly manner to make their claims felt.

This blog has often insisted on complexity, uncertainty and for that matter chaos.  Also, the principle in very many government issues of “no right decision”, that is that every option has significant downsides.  It is when you ignore these that you can run into chaos as Blair so clearly demonstrated.

As for the Miner’s Strike, it was Scargill that called it and him and his cabal who insisted on going in and on regardless of the realities on the ground.  They were warned, indeed on the first day, that the Government had seen them coming and was prepared. 

They were warned to go for any favourable deal they could get at an early stage.  They disregarded the groups who tried to achieve this.  They were warned to lay off the violence and pull back the groups of thugs doing the enforcing.  They did not heed them.  So they lost and deserved to for the rank stupidity of their leadership.

As for what was done and not done, what happened and how wise or otherwise it was this is best left to historians to rake over the details and see if they can find a logical explanation of events. 

Personally, my view is that this could be unlikely because by then the UK had become prisoner to outside events and interests.  The eleven years were ones of having to make decisions on the hoof in a rapidly changing world where it was never clear what was happening and why.

Mrs. Thatcher was the first and so far only woman Prime Minister; she was also almost the only one who was a scientist and a research one at that who moved on into law.  Also she grew up in a small town the daughter of an ordinary shop keeper. 

These gave her some unusual insights but also some blind spots.  Because of her dominance in cabinet, relentless working habits, media presentation and ready grasp of complicated subjects she did have remarkable and unusual abilities. 

There were mistakes made and misjudgements.  Some matters were set in train which led to adverse effects.  She did not really understand that economists are never to be trusted or that in the last analysis the money men could be prone to taking care of themselves first and others last.

Essentially, Mrs. Thatcher just about kept the show on the road and reclaimed ground after the dreadful 1970’s.  It might well have been better but it could have been a lot worse. 

And she saw off the Soviet Union.

Time To Take A Deep Breath

During the train ride as we passed by gardens, fields, woods and meadows, it was remarked that almost all of the greenery was late this year, the cold snap having put a stop to the normal growth etc.  Similarly at the farm they were having a struggle to bring things on despite the plastic tunnels.

This brought real concerns about the asparagus season, normally one of the bed rock parts of our overall annual eating strategy.  As eaters by season and local this is the price to pay instead of relying on the regular supermarket international chains of supply.

The strawberry season for example is crucial to the planning of fizz purchasing requirements and this will impact on outlays of other things.  Eating these days has to be in terms of current management theory and not just left to chance.

There is another major consideration other than inputs of food.  It is the inputs of other substances in the air.  If nature goes its own way then when the warm days come again almost everything in nature will start to come out and rapidly. 

That means in allergy terms everyone who is affected by anything will be hit at roughly the same time and to the same degree.  Those will multiple reactions will have major short term hits rather than a series of lesser ones.

Given present demographic trends, with an ageing population and a young one seemingly far more prone to respiratory problems those vulnerable to the more severe hits could be in for a bad time all at once.

Another factor is the more general pollution trends of one thing or another.  In the UK at present it is beginning to be accepted that our testing of atmospheric conditions is much too limited in scope. 

Time and modern developments in various fields have put more stuff out there in the air of different kinds that impacts on people either as small groups or generally.  The air quality tests need bringing up to date and quickly.

The overall consequence is that there is now the risk of a sudden sharp and serious increase in the numbers of people with breathing and associated problems for which our medical and notably hospital services are very ill equipped. 

If we are already at the margins of risk and even more at the relevant medical services then it could turn quite bad.  Those of us with direct memories of London in December 1952 will remember all too well the effect of a marginal deterioration in conditions.

It might become even worse.  On Saturday, 6^th April, it appears that Mount Tambora in Sumbawa, Indonesia was twitching again.  Wikipedia has a long article on it which sets out the local and global effects of the 1815 eruption.  John Seach reports in his web site, Volcano Live dot com:

Quote:

“Tambora volcano, Indonesia was raised to level 2 alert (waspada) on 5th April 2013, after an increase in seismic activity. Tambora is one of the world's most dangerous volcanoes. In 1815 it produced the world's largest historic explosive eruption with the loss of 117,000 lives.

The most recent eruption is not well documented, but occurred about 1967. A magnitude 6.1 earthquake hit 29 km NE of the summit of Tambora volcano on 8th May 2010. During 2004 a buried town was discovered near the volcano.

It has been called the Pompeii of the East because of the preservation of human artifacts.”

Unquote.

If this one goes up in a full scale eruption we will all have more to worry about that a lot of hay fever or those with immediate respiratory problems.

And this might the last year for asparagus for a while.

Korea

Long ago, when a teenager, it was that long ago, the question of Korea came up.  At the end of the introductory training for National Service in the Army the issue of where you might be posted to arose.  In those not so happy days it could be anywhere.  A lot of those places had disadvantages.

These included wars, places with terrorists (or freedom fighters if you insist), places that were very hot and dry, others hot and steamy, others cold and wet; there was plenty of choice.  Even London was possible, if you wanted to risk your lungs and liver.

Except that there was not a choice.  Someone in the deepest recesses of the War Office would rush out into the street, find a passing beggar and pay him a quid or two to pick the names of the sack blindfolded. 

At least that was the theory and was regarded as the only rational explanation at the time for the way people were selected for the vacancies on offer.  When the time came for our time for this particular lottery of life the nerves were twitching.

In the squad a couple of keen types had volunteered for Korea on the grounds that they would have rapid promotion and it would be good for their CV’s, if that is, they returned in one piece if at all.  We were all deeply grateful to them as the rest of us skiving louts were desperate for a cushy number close to the bright lights.

In the event, most of us were packed off to Germany where the forces were being strengthened because of uncertainties.  The rest were scattered about largely in the UK.  Of the two Korea volunteers one finished up at Nuneaton and the other on the staff at a military prison out in the wilds.

But there were stories about Korea and it is difficult to convey the views of us at the time without breaching all the present requirements to avoid being judgemental or unkind on ethnic grounds on those from the North.

These arose not just from people who had been in the Korean War, but others from elsewhere in the Pacific where those of the North had some notoriety.  Those who had been in Japanese Prison Camps during WW2 asserted that the worst places to be were those with North Korean guards who had volunteered for this duty. 

The views today would seem extreme but to us at the time were regarded as well founded.  One certainty was that mentally they were in another Universe and it was one to be avoided at all costs.

Sixty odd years ago the Korean War broke out because China was backing the North in their immediate post revolutionary period.  Russia was bidding for their friendship in the struggles of the Cold War.  Remember that Russia is a Far Eastern power and not just a Western one.

Japan at that time was not independent and only in a supporting role to the USA.  The USA was determined to stop Communism wherever it emerged.  Between the contests of all these powers it became impossible to agree either a peace or a way forward that avoided conflict.

If we have another muddle of ambitions and failures to come to terms among the great Pacific powers in how the North Korean problem can be addressed then it could turn bad but this time round with far wider economic consequences than in the late 1940’s. 

South Korea is now a small but important part in an industrial and financial globalised world.  We cannot afford to see it wrecked out of the mixture of spite and stupidity that motivates the regime in the North.

Essentially, Moscow and Beijing need to cooperate quickly and effectively and to work with the USA and Japan to defuse the whole situation.  Any idea of relying on normal human or political thinking in North Korea can be forgotten.  They do not work like that and never have done.

Our media, government and others do not seem to realise the risks they are taking in just hoping it is just another passing row.  At some time that simply may not be the case.

All Changes To Benefits Are Wrong

It depends on what you mean by “wrong”.  At the risk of being historical again down the ages and eras humanity, one way or another, has had to deal with those in their respective groupings who have needed continuing care and support.

There are some scholars now of the opinion that in the deep past while much of life was nasty, brutish and short peoples amongst their own kin, extended families and close others very often there were real attempts to sustain those who could not help themselves.

Our own history during the last millenia has been extensively covered by historians etc. of one stripe or another.  Clearly there were times and places where not a lot was done or could be done but on the whole there was the intent among most groups.

Things fell apart during periods of disruption, whether because of wars, severe weather problems, famine, epidemics and mass population movements.  As many of these were characteristic in the 19^th Century when in many places welfare was hard to find.

Despite this there was always a strong motivation among many to do something in one way or another.  To many of us today that was provided looks very rough and ready and lacking in many respects.  It did take a long time to raise standards and hopes for a better future.

The difficulty was who paid, how they paid, who provided, how it was organised, who had the first line of responsibility, how “lost” or “discarded” individuals could be dealt with and how it all might be managed. 

The hope was that some day it might be possible to have a population that was balanced in age groups, eating sound healthy diets, with moderation in drinking, educated enough to take responsibility for themselves and families and capable of managing at local community level the complex of activity needed to deal with the poor and the casualties of life.

In the 1930’s these aims proved hard to achieve and to reconcile the large scale extensive systems, often with conflicting aims and to achieve some sort of rational equality across the national.  

One serious issue here was the division between areas which were significantly poorer and harder hit than the richer and within all these the income disparities between classes.  There was also a wish to mitigate the economic and personal disasters that followed severe and disabling illnesses.

By the 1960’s Health and Welfare had moved to the foreground of the general political debate and both the major parties had to compete for votes by making promises. 

At the same time the pace of medical and technological advances was transforming provision across the board at an ever increasing rate and beyond the capacity and the capability of the managing structures. 

The way forward too often and too easily was seen to be reorganisation and the application of management theories and structures that were out of date on the day they were implemented.

The effect of the increased centralisation and highly complicated systems was to make both a highly bureaucratic, expensive and difficult to control monolith in both health and welfare forms of provision that increasing both fell behind reality and required ever increasing spending.

So now we are all paying, more or less and almost all benefiting.  But the fond hopes of ever increasing resources are now at an end.  Somehow or another politicians have to square the circle, put on the extras, and pay up for the extraordinarily expensive provision they have made.

They are now doing this with an ageing population among whom are very many whose income in real terms is declining, a wealth sector largely avoiding or evading tax and communities increasingly fragmented and with fractured family structures, all of which add to the demands.

Whatever any government does someone is going to have to pay.  Even if the money is borrowed someone has to find the credit and it will add to the bills.  At the same time any readjustments in any form inevitably will adversely affect some people.

If our governments are not careful they could finish up with a population where, because of the economic and government spending requirements almost all the population is on welfare and free provision if not state employed as well with no hope of finding the money to keep the show on the road.

What we have to worry about is the lessons of history.  Notably if there is a major disruption then there could be a series of at least partial collapses and at worst a major one.

It has happened before and can or will happen again.