Allocating Resources, Who Wins? Who Loses?

Power, economics, politics and the rest, it is argued, all come down to the question of who gets what and who decides and how. In economic terms this is described as “the allocation of resources” and there are libraries full of learned books and documents about all the implications.

The trouble is that most of them, if not nearly all, are conditioned by the information and experience of the past. Our problem is that our perceptions of this can be flawed by ideas of what might and should have been and not actually what was happening.

So we guess the future in terms of what the immediate past suggests might be and worse what we think it ought to be. But reality may not be like that at all. It is all too possible that something might be happening under our noses that we do not see and do not understand.

A question at present is just how far the increasing rates of extraction of the earth’s resources can be continued. There is the ancillary problem that if world population continues to increase at a faster rate and if many of those people are wanting or expecting greater consumer opportunities many or almost all will be getting less rather than more.

The link below is to a 7700 word article called “Time To Wake Up” on the subject. It is long and needs a lot of thinking to take in the complexity of the issues. Clearly, there are many unknowns and variables. One is that if the world suddenly begins to be far more efficient and careful in its use of key resources we may put off the evil day.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7853#more

The author, Jeremy Grantham, talks about potential efficiency savings and the need for international co-operation and suggest within nations, resource planning. The hitch to this is that with so much of financial governance now well outside national controls a key part is missing.

Another one is persuading those “with” to exercise disciplines that may not be popular in order to help those “without” and for everyone to link in trying to organize it all a lot better.

Again, we need to understand what is happening now. I can recall that during the 1960’s the advent of container shipping and its implications was simply not realized by the great majority of people and especially by those in government, politics and in much of the transport industry.

Certainly, I did not realize it until in the early 1970’s I made some sea journeys and it dawned on me that something was going on that was radically different. Even then the wider implications took some time to appreciate.

This failure occurred at a time when we had governments telling us that national planning was the key to future growth and only the government could know how to plan the allocation of resources It wasn’t just the maritime trade where their perceptions about the future were hopelessly wrong.

To add to our worries, the UK is now a country increasingly amongst the “withouts” in terms of the resources necessary to maintain our lifestyles.

Bats In The Belfry

It was not that we had better things to do it was other things that had to be done. One of those days, so we picked up highlights on the news about the Royal wedding. It seems to have gone quite well and our good wishes to the couple.

There was something that did catch the eye and clicked on to the random memory between the ears. It was the insignia of The Royals, now part of The Blues and Royals but formerly the 1st Royal Dragoons. Prince Harry was wearing the uniform.

A few weeks after Churchill retired as PM I had a row with the then Commanding Officer of the regiment. He was in his Command Ferret Scout Car leading the regiment on the move and I was standing at a cross roads and in the way of his preferred route.

The difficulty was that we were on manoeuvres and the General Officer Commanding had changed the directions at a very late stage because the Divisional Engineers had discovered that a key bridge was not up to the weights expected.

I had been instructed to redirect several of the Army’s finest cavalry regiments, one of which was the 4th Hussars, Churchill’s regiment, contrary to the operation orders that they had been given earlier.

This was going to tax my powers of persuasion. The Royals CO was one of the more difficult. For some reason he found my studied politeness and command of language more annoying than had I tried a stream of obscene abuse. Perhaps it was a class thing.

To add insult to injury for him it was not long after that we played cricket against the regiment and not only did The Royals lose, I bowled him for a duck. Give him his due, he took it like a true sportsmen and even bought me a beer.

I hope the transport arrangements today all went to plan and nobody came up against a bolshie lower rank standing in the middle of the road informing them of changed orders which were not to their liking.

We shall have a bottle of Saumur fizz tonight I think, it is a fine town with a lovely tank museum.

Debt, Spending And Control

The blogosphere at present seems strangely disconnected perhaps reflecting all the uncertainties of our times, the limited amount of reliable information and the clatter of so much confusing spin. That is where they are allowed to talk about something.

Fleet Street Blues came up with a very interesting idea. As so many celebrities of one kind or another and senior people in effect are media dependent for their standing and worth then if one should take out a super injunction limiting what may or may not be said then for the media as a whole they become “unpersons”.

That is the media resolutely refuse to mention anything about them, or if it is difficult to avoid then the barest treatment, for example tacked on at the end of a match report on a football game “name also scored”. The biter bit so to say.

This idea might be taken further. Market Oracle today had an intricate item on the subject of the thesis of Debt Saturation and the Money Illusion. Detailed but the nub of it was that servicing world or a national debt could get to the point when it was impossible to pay down the debt with dire long term economic consequences.

These days there are few households without some form of ongoing debt or another. A good deal of this now is credit card debt driven by the need to consume. Could we all decide to avoid using cards as much as possible and audit our personal spending to avoid debt wherever possible? If we could it would be a marvellous way to punish greedy bankers and incidentally begin to control our own lives.

Further to that, being a nosy person, I am fascinated by the amount of stuff and what it is in other people’s trolleys. Often there is not much in that of many OAP’s for obvious reasons and some others who are clearly a bit short. But there is little doubt that many households are buying and using stuff that costs far too much and often has little real purpose.

Also, I have had a sweaty and unpleasant morning around town being obliged to do the shopping today for our minimal needs. It was difficult to avoid hordes of people evidently buying goods because now shopping is supposed to be recreation. I regard it as one of the inner circles of hell. But to see so many people buying clothes they do not need and which do not last on credit makes me wonder.

If enough people decided simply to get what was a real need and not an advertised or marketed need and to minimise both outlays from income and added debt then we would begin to bring the economy back to its senses.

Unluckily, I think that the media will not stop fawning on the famous, power wielding elites will not stop borrowing money for us to pay back and the ordinary person have the sense to stop propping up those who are managing to extract all we have and more.

Another Accident Waiting To Happen?

The story below has appeared in BBC News about how the number of cash purchases has increased in the housing market. Given the costs of housing today it is unlikely that these purchases are being funded by any ordinary savings.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13116262

Whilst some of the reasons put forward in the article have their logic and in some areas, notably the south west, people moving on retirement who have managed to sell their old homes will be able to afford it, there have to be some questions about the other places.

Notably that in some areas of London it can be up to 80%. Why? London is about the highest priced area in the UK and four out of five are buying in cash? These cannot be ordinary working people or even those in the middling income grades. Also, they are unlikely to be recent graduates or many others who would have to borrow.

This is therefore not a “normal” market for ordinary people. So just who has all this cash? It is possible that a number of footballers and other entertainers on a roll may have enough. Also the bonus boys and girls in some of the major financial companies, but they cannot account for this level between them.

So this must mean either money flooding in from less “safe” places spent by the wealthy anxious to get their money and investments relocated or persons in the illegal economy.

There is another consideration, aptly described in the Cobden Centre articles:

http://www.cobdencentre.org/2011/04/mervyn-king-operation-bernhard/

and:

http://www.cobdencentre.org/2011/04/the-delayed-effect-of-printing-money-via-quantitative-easing/

Given that all these matters are highly complex and we seem to have a government of uncertain men with uncertain ideas there could be some real problems in the making if the market suddenly seizes up without them noticing.

In the USA the first small signs of the property crash began in late 2005 when sales began to stick and the market turned abnormal. Nobody realised then or thought that all the money thrown at it by government agencies and Wall Street would lead to very severe problems indeed.

Mervyn better be right because I believe that the money was that was printed for Operation Bernhard ended up at the bottom of a deep very cold lake.

Brief Encounter

Along with other TV and radio channels Classic FM have blitzed their Easter schedules by carpet bombing one target. In this case it’s annual Hall of Fame, a listing of 300 most favoured bits from a broad range of more or less classical music.

Allowing for the potential for manipulation of polls of this kind, I suspect that this one is relatively free. What is a puzzle is that at the top some items last for so very long. The top one this year, normally one of the first three is the most well known bit from Rachmaninov’s Piano Concerto No. 2.

I have no problem with the composer and little with the piece but it is when the reason cited is that its status derives from the 1945 film, “Brief Encounter”. Again, I don’t doubt that it is a classic film and one of the best British films of its time. But how come that sixty six years later it can pull in the votes?

The film does not have a lot of laughs, the body count is zero, nobody gets any serious damage and the love interests barely touch each other. It is all very middle class, the workers are certainly distinct and the upper orders out of sight. Even for fans of the period there is not much to see; you need to be a dedicated train buff to work out what is going on at the station.

One of the great mysteries is of all the stations in the world they had to walk into this one. Carnforth in north Lancashire was chosen. At the time it was both a main line station, although many expresses did not stop and a busy junction for other lines.

The July 1922 timetable will bear this out and it was much the same in 1944/5 when the filming took place. But there were many other’s like it not only on the LMS but all over the country; which is the reason why it may have connected with the audiences. We all knew and had experienced places like it somewhere.

It was only a handful of years after this that I put in my first shift on the railway, heaving mailbags during the Christmas rush. For several years after from time to time I was back at one station or another on the platforms. The refreshment room was very like the one in the film only the rock buns were harder but the toasted bacon sandwiches were very good. They were the haute cuisine of the time.

Looking back the stations then would often have an atmosphere and a character that was totally lost by the 1970’s. Sometimes the departures would be sad, men going off for military service, others who would not be seeing loved ones for a very long time. Sometimes they would be joyful.

The wedding parties used to be quite cheery, happy people seeing the couple off on their honeymoon to begin the great journey of life. There were times when the station staff would add to the occasion.

One time a couple of lady cleaners had come up from the carriage shed to sort out a return special and were waiting for the end of their shift when a wedding party was by a train. Doll, four foot eight and who had led an interesting life watched as the bride was helped onto the train and when the whistle blew cried out her advice to her.

“She’ll get more than brown ale tonight” rang down the station.

Air terminals are just not the same.

Taking A Holiday?

The present pattern of UK bank and other holidays is a mish mash of old traditions, religious and otherwise with a limited number of “extra’s” bolted on as a result of employment legislation of the past. Often this results in some being quite close to each other making their placing in the year uneven and sometimes disruptive.

So when I rang a shop a few days ago about an item I was given a warning about ordering and delivery for around a fortnight with subsequent delays for a few days after. This is one thing when it about a consumer good, it is another if you are trying to arrange a funeral or need critical surgery. I recall the long Millennium holiday with the dearly departed being stacked in freezer trucks.

If you are in business and face critical deadlines it can be a costly business, especially if other hindrances arise, such as a motorway closure. On the other hand if you are just a couch potato then you are faced with endless repeats and mind numbing ancient programmes.

Many of the holidays were established before modern employment legislation with all its legal requirements for protection, pay and specified hours. They were also the only days when most people did not work. Today, in the 24/7 culture they are becoming more optional and in activities such as tourism and retailing almost eliminated.

The difficulty is that it is one of those political issues that no government wants to touch because all any reform would do might upset a lot of people and interests with little political gain to show for it.

If required holidays were to be set without links to religious festivals this would upset many and could trigger demands from other believers for their holy days. Worse still, if the Football Association and it’s supervising body, Sky Sports did not like it then there would be real trouble from News International.

It is possible that we could do without the traditional “bank holidays” completely and simply specify that all people should have a minimum number of paid days off in their employment contracts. How any company, organisation or service arranged things would be up to them.

Then we could have the 24/7 systems made necessary by the globalised economy without all the occasional hindrances and delay to our deliveries from the courier companies and container ship timetables.

An alternative would be to go back to something like either the old Scottish Term Days (or New) or the Quarter and Cross Quarter days of other parts of the Atlantic Isles. Perhaps they could be set around the Solstices and the Equinoxes and other celestial movements to avoid religious and other interests.

However there is the possibility that on the latest demographic and employment trends only a minority of the population will be in paid work in the near future and they will all have to work so hard to pay the taxes necessary that they will not be able to take holidays.

The Return Of The Smog

There is smog again in London and said to be bad. One report suggests that this might increase the number of deaths by 700 or so. There will be no figures available for those affected to one degree or another whose damage may be permanent. This one is another problem that has been coming for some time but off the agenda of any recent government.

Last year in an item I did about a visit to London I commented that the air quality was as bad as anything I had experienced when young. For anyone growing up in industrial towns in the early to mid parts of the 20th Century smog was a regular hazard. In some places, notably like Sheffield, the air was literally filthy.

The one that does feature in the history books is the Great Smog of London in the first week or so in December 1952. Although traffic levels were not as high as at present the dependence on coal burning for almost all domestic and industrial activity as well as a great deal railway movement put a huge amount of stuff into the air which polluted everything.

It was in the last week of December 1952 that I was in London for a handful of days over the New Year. Although the smog had dispersed by then the place still stank and was filthy. Moreover, many still seemed to be shocked by it.

There are figures given for the recorded deaths but these are disputed because there may have been many suffering serious complaints who were just finished off and recorded under those. Again those left damaged were uncounted. It is my view that over the next two to three decades it is likely that this left its effect on the expectation of life figures.

Today, London does not have anything like the industry it did then and there are no steam trains other than the very occasional heritage ones a few days a year. Also, Clean Air Acts, cheap oil and gas of the last quarter of the 20th Century means that the coal smoke has gone.

So what is replacing it? When it comes to measuring Air Quality finding out about it is a question. Typically, it is possible to discover exactly what Queensland in Oz is up to but to work out what the Met Office does, that trading arm of the Ministry of Defence, involves a tortuous journey through an official web site that leaves you little wiser than when you started.

Essentially, the quality measuring is looking at Nitrogen Dioxide, Sulphur Dioxide, Ozone and Particulate Matters of certain sizes, largely reflecting dust and pollen for the larger and fuel combustion for the smaller. From this a scale is given telling us how bad it is, but in urban areas it is rarely good.

There are now some things missing from the equations. Over the last decade or two there has been extensive use of air conditioning systems in buildings all pumping out bad air and heat from inside to outside. Also, the requirements for kitchens etc. in the hugely increased number of eating places means extensive venting in the streets and air generally.

Within these buildings it is typical now for many products to be in use where recent fine particle technology has been applied and these are present in quantity, often in the air conditioning systems. These particulates will be very much smaller than the minimum levels presently tested for and substantially derived from petro-chemicals with other potentially toxic chemicals in addition.

So while the fuel pollution levels of the past are measured these are not. But what we do not know is how far this fine particle technology is now applied in the production of fuel for vehicles to enhance performance and capability. The catalytic converters may deal with some particles but not these. So the fuel combustion measures may now be inadequate.

The air quality measures etc. in use were arrived at largely during the 1990’s and whilst under review have not had serious attention in relation to the new situation that has developed over the last decade. The situation is changing rapidly and the scientists in the UK have just not caught up with it.

But, what is important is the bottom line trading figures the Met’ Office produces for the Ministry of Defence.