HM King George VI:
“What happens next?”
Bloke at end:
“If you’re lucky you get a prize.”
“What happens next?”
Bloke at end:
“If you’re lucky you get a prize.”
Monday, 28 February 2011
Sunday, 27 February 2011
Libya, Another Story
While the tragedy unfolds and tens of thousands flee there are stories emerging that make you wonder. Below is something from The Times of Malta:
Quote:
The "voluptuous" Ukrainian nurse US diplomats believe accompanies Libyan ruler Muammar Gaddafi is about to return home to Kiev, her daughter said in an interview published today.
US diplomatic cables disclosed by the WikiLeaks website suggest that the Libyan leader is reliant on a small team of Ukrainian nurses and particularly a "voluptuous blonde" identified as Galyna Kolotnytska.
The woman's daughter, Tatyana, told Ukraine's Segodnya daily that her mother has been shocked by the violence raging in Libya and is planning to return to her suburban Kiev residence.
"Mom called yesterday. She says that she is in Tripoli," Tatyana Kolotnytska told the daily.
"There is shooting, fighting and everything else they show on television. She spoke in a calm voice, asked us not to worry, and said she will be home soon."
The diplomatic cables, which were sent by diplomats in Tripoli to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2009, reveal that Gaddafi is almost always accompanied by Kolotnytska.
"Gaddafi relies heavily on his long-time Ukrainian nurse, Galyna Kolotnytska, who has been described as a 'voluptuous blonde'," said one dispatch using the US State Department's standard spelling for the Libyan strongman.
"Of the rumoured staff of four Ukrainian nurses that cater to the Leader's health and well-being, XXX emphasized ... that Gaddafi cannot travel without Kolotnytska, as she alone 'knows his routine'," the dispatch said.
Kolotnytska's daughter said she did not know if her mother was currently with Gaddafi, who has offered to arm civilians to defeat a popular revolt that poses the worst threat to his four-decade rule.
She said only that her mother left for Libya nine years ago and confirmed that "there are other Ukrainian nurses" surrounding Gaddafi .
"For some reason, he does not trust the Libyan women," the daughter said.
Unquote.
It is difficult to think of a comment that makes sense.
Quote:
The "voluptuous" Ukrainian nurse US diplomats believe accompanies Libyan ruler Muammar Gaddafi is about to return home to Kiev, her daughter said in an interview published today.
US diplomatic cables disclosed by the WikiLeaks website suggest that the Libyan leader is reliant on a small team of Ukrainian nurses and particularly a "voluptuous blonde" identified as Galyna Kolotnytska.
The woman's daughter, Tatyana, told Ukraine's Segodnya daily that her mother has been shocked by the violence raging in Libya and is planning to return to her suburban Kiev residence.
"Mom called yesterday. She says that she is in Tripoli," Tatyana Kolotnytska told the daily.
"There is shooting, fighting and everything else they show on television. She spoke in a calm voice, asked us not to worry, and said she will be home soon."
The diplomatic cables, which were sent by diplomats in Tripoli to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2009, reveal that Gaddafi is almost always accompanied by Kolotnytska.
"Gaddafi relies heavily on his long-time Ukrainian nurse, Galyna Kolotnytska, who has been described as a 'voluptuous blonde'," said one dispatch using the US State Department's standard spelling for the Libyan strongman.
"Of the rumoured staff of four Ukrainian nurses that cater to the Leader's health and well-being, XXX emphasized ... that Gaddafi cannot travel without Kolotnytska, as she alone 'knows his routine'," the dispatch said.
Kolotnytska's daughter said she did not know if her mother was currently with Gaddafi, who has offered to arm civilians to defeat a popular revolt that poses the worst threat to his four-decade rule.
She said only that her mother left for Libya nine years ago and confirmed that "there are other Ukrainian nurses" surrounding Gaddafi .
"For some reason, he does not trust the Libyan women," the daughter said.
Unquote.
It is difficult to think of a comment that makes sense.
Friday, 25 February 2011
To The Shores Of Tripoli
Grannie always used to say that a man is judged by his friends. Quite why she used to fix her gaze on me when she said that is another issue. Just as my claims “Honest, it wasn’t me, it was my friend” used to cut little ice when people came to complain.
The Libyan crisis and all the horrors that are going on there as well as the stories emerging are causing embarrassment in a number of places and for people who would rather not have old memories awakened. The Colonel is beginning to find as I did that when a window was smashed all the so-called friends took to their heels as fast as possible.
Amongst the many and various friends made (or bought) by the regime in Libya are some interesting connections. One institution that could hardly deny it is the London School of Economics which not only educated some of the family and extended a welcome to the Colonel but took his shilling. One of the Governors and leading alumni is a Cherie Blair, remember her?
Then there are the familiar figures from the previous Government, Gordon and his grim faced bunch of hoods leading the way. What exactly were Thin Ed’ and Fat Ed’ doing in relation to all the comings and goings of the regime in Libya? Not to mention all those corporate people and financial agents enmeshed in the government and involved in contracts and the network of payments systems.
Meanwhile Cameron has decided to cut a stern and positive figure. What and who amongst the Tories there is to dig up in connection with Libya is another question and when the real row starts we might learn. It may be that the long years of Labour rule meant The Colonel did not bother much with Tories but it is unlikely that he did not hedge his bets.
The fall out from all this in the UK and maybe Ireland could be spectacular and Cameron probably is trying to cover his bets as quickly as possible. However, when he suggests that some sort of military intervention is possible it is time to worry.
As we know, when things were politically sticky Blair was always eager to send the troops off to some convenient place to distract attention and to buy favours. But Cameron needs to be careful. The Armed Forces may no longer be up to what is going to be needed there.
When Churchill took the saluting stand at Tripoli in 1943 and the 51st Highland Division marched past one of the units was singing what he took to be a patriotic song.
It was in fact the old folk ditty “Four and Twenty Virgins Came Down From Inverness.” The rest I leave to your imagination. Montgomery thought it wiser not to tell the Prime Minister in the circumstances.
The Americans have their own song about Tripoli, “From The Halls of Montezuma To The Shores of Tripoli” about freeing American’s from foreign pirates. It is the marching song of their Marines.
If there is to be any military intervention, Cameron should leave it to the US Marines and I hope the Generals tell him the truth.
The Libyan crisis and all the horrors that are going on there as well as the stories emerging are causing embarrassment in a number of places and for people who would rather not have old memories awakened. The Colonel is beginning to find as I did that when a window was smashed all the so-called friends took to their heels as fast as possible.
Amongst the many and various friends made (or bought) by the regime in Libya are some interesting connections. One institution that could hardly deny it is the London School of Economics which not only educated some of the family and extended a welcome to the Colonel but took his shilling. One of the Governors and leading alumni is a Cherie Blair, remember her?
Then there are the familiar figures from the previous Government, Gordon and his grim faced bunch of hoods leading the way. What exactly were Thin Ed’ and Fat Ed’ doing in relation to all the comings and goings of the regime in Libya? Not to mention all those corporate people and financial agents enmeshed in the government and involved in contracts and the network of payments systems.
Meanwhile Cameron has decided to cut a stern and positive figure. What and who amongst the Tories there is to dig up in connection with Libya is another question and when the real row starts we might learn. It may be that the long years of Labour rule meant The Colonel did not bother much with Tories but it is unlikely that he did not hedge his bets.
The fall out from all this in the UK and maybe Ireland could be spectacular and Cameron probably is trying to cover his bets as quickly as possible. However, when he suggests that some sort of military intervention is possible it is time to worry.
As we know, when things were politically sticky Blair was always eager to send the troops off to some convenient place to distract attention and to buy favours. But Cameron needs to be careful. The Armed Forces may no longer be up to what is going to be needed there.
When Churchill took the saluting stand at Tripoli in 1943 and the 51st Highland Division marched past one of the units was singing what he took to be a patriotic song.
It was in fact the old folk ditty “Four and Twenty Virgins Came Down From Inverness.” The rest I leave to your imagination. Montgomery thought it wiser not to tell the Prime Minister in the circumstances.
The Americans have their own song about Tripoli, “From The Halls of Montezuma To The Shores of Tripoli” about freeing American’s from foreign pirates. It is the marching song of their Marines.
If there is to be any military intervention, Cameron should leave it to the US Marines and I hope the Generals tell him the truth.
Thursday, 24 February 2011
The End Of Empire
Just out of interest, perhaps time to revisit this item from January 2008, all those years ago, up to a point.
Quote:
An Ottoman warning for indebted America
By Niall Ferguson Published: January 1 2008
The writer is a professor at Harvard University and Harvard Business School and a senior fellow of the Hoover Institution, Stanford
Future historians will look back on the current decade as a turning point comparable with that of the Seventies. No, not the 1970s. This is not going to be another piece pointing out the coincidence of an unpopular Republican president, soaring oil prices, a sagging dollar and an unwinnable faraway war. I am talking about the 1870s.
At first sight, the resemblances across 130 years may not seem obvious. The 1870s were a time when conservative leaders such as Benjamin Disraeli, British prime minister, were powerful and popular. It was a time of falling commodity prices, after the financial crash of 1873 and the opening up of the American plains to agriculture. And it was an era of currency stability, as one country after another followed the British lead by pegging to gold.
Yet, on closer inspection, we are indeed living through a global shift in the balance of power very similar to that which occurred in the 1870s. This is the story of how an over-extended empire sought to cope with an external debt crisis by selling off revenue streams to foreign investors. The empire that suffered these setbacks in the 1870s was the Ottoman Empire. Today it is the US.
In the aftermath of the Crimean war, both the sultan in Constantinople and his Egyptian vassal, the Khedive, had begun to accumulate huge domestic and foreign debts. Between 1855 and 1875, the Ottoman debt increased by a factor of 28.
As a percentage of expenditure, interest payments and amortisation rose from 15 per cent in 1860 to 50 per cent in 1875. The Egyptian case was similar: between 1862 and 1876, the total public debt rose from E£3.3m to E£76m. The 1876 budget showed debt charges accounting for more than half of all expenditure.
The loans had been made for both military and economic reasons: to support the Ottoman military position during and after the Crimean war and to finance railway and canal construction, including the building of the Suez canal, which had opened in 1869.
But a dangerously high proportion of the proceeds had been squandered on conspicuous consumption, symbolised by Sultan Abdul Mejid’s luxurious Dolmabahçe palace and the spectacular world premiere of Aïda at the Cairo Opera House in 1871.
In the wake of the financial crisis that struck the European and American stock markets in 1873, a Middle Eastern debt crisis was inevitable. In October 1875 the Ottoman government declared bankruptcy.
The crisis had two distinct financial consequences: the sale of the Khedive’s shares in the Suez canal to the British government (for £4m, famously advanced to Disraeli by the Rothschilds) and the hypothecation of certain Ottoman tax revenues for debt service under the auspices of an international Administration of the Ottoman Public Debt, on which European bondholders were represented.
The critical point is that the debt crisis necessitated the sale or transfer of Middle Eastern revenue streams to Europeans.
The US debt crisis has taken a different form, to be sure. External liabilities have been run up by a combination of government and household dis-saving. It is not the public sector that is defaulting but subprime mortgage borrowers.
As in the 1870s, though, the upshot of this debt crisis is the sale of assets and revenue streams to foreign creditors. This time, however, creditors are buying bank shares not canal shares. And the resulting shift of power is from west to east.
Since September, Middle Eastern and east Asian sovereign wealth funds have made a succession of investments in four US banks: Bear Stearns, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch. Most commentators have been inclined to welcome this global bail-out : better to bring in foreign capital than to shrink balance sheets by reducing lending.
Yet we need to recognise that these “capital injections” represent a transfer of the revenues from the US financial services industry into the hands of foreign governments. This is happening at a time when the gap between eastern and western incomes is narrowing at an unprecedented pace.
In other words, as in the 1870s the balance of financial power is shifting. Then, the move was from the ancient oriental empires (not only the Ottoman but also the Persian and Chinese) to western Europe. Today the shift is from the US, and other western financial centres, to the autocracies of the Middle East and east Asia.
In Disraeli’s day, the debt crisis turned out to have political as well as financial implications, presaging a reduction not just in income but also in sovereignty.
In the case of Egypt, what began with asset sales continued with the creation of a foreign commission to manage the public debt, the installation of an “international” government and finally, in 1882, to British military intervention and the country’s transformation into a de facto colony. In the case of Turkey, the debt crisis was followed by the sultan’s abdication and Russian military intervention, which dealt a lethal blow to the Ottoman position in the Balkans.
It remains to be seen how quickly today’s financial shift will be followed by a comparable geopolitical shift in favour of the new export and energy empires of the east. Suffice to say that the historical analogy does not bode well for America’s quasi-imperial network of bases and allies across the Middle East and Asia.
Debtor empires sooner or later have to do more than just sell shares to satisfy their creditors.
Unquote
How right or how wrong?
Quote:
An Ottoman warning for indebted America
By Niall Ferguson Published: January 1 2008
The writer is a professor at Harvard University and Harvard Business School and a senior fellow of the Hoover Institution, Stanford
Future historians will look back on the current decade as a turning point comparable with that of the Seventies. No, not the 1970s. This is not going to be another piece pointing out the coincidence of an unpopular Republican president, soaring oil prices, a sagging dollar and an unwinnable faraway war. I am talking about the 1870s.
At first sight, the resemblances across 130 years may not seem obvious. The 1870s were a time when conservative leaders such as Benjamin Disraeli, British prime minister, were powerful and popular. It was a time of falling commodity prices, after the financial crash of 1873 and the opening up of the American plains to agriculture. And it was an era of currency stability, as one country after another followed the British lead by pegging to gold.
Yet, on closer inspection, we are indeed living through a global shift in the balance of power very similar to that which occurred in the 1870s. This is the story of how an over-extended empire sought to cope with an external debt crisis by selling off revenue streams to foreign investors. The empire that suffered these setbacks in the 1870s was the Ottoman Empire. Today it is the US.
In the aftermath of the Crimean war, both the sultan in Constantinople and his Egyptian vassal, the Khedive, had begun to accumulate huge domestic and foreign debts. Between 1855 and 1875, the Ottoman debt increased by a factor of 28.
As a percentage of expenditure, interest payments and amortisation rose from 15 per cent in 1860 to 50 per cent in 1875. The Egyptian case was similar: between 1862 and 1876, the total public debt rose from E£3.3m to E£76m. The 1876 budget showed debt charges accounting for more than half of all expenditure.
The loans had been made for both military and economic reasons: to support the Ottoman military position during and after the Crimean war and to finance railway and canal construction, including the building of the Suez canal, which had opened in 1869.
But a dangerously high proportion of the proceeds had been squandered on conspicuous consumption, symbolised by Sultan Abdul Mejid’s luxurious Dolmabahçe palace and the spectacular world premiere of Aïda at the Cairo Opera House in 1871.
In the wake of the financial crisis that struck the European and American stock markets in 1873, a Middle Eastern debt crisis was inevitable. In October 1875 the Ottoman government declared bankruptcy.
The crisis had two distinct financial consequences: the sale of the Khedive’s shares in the Suez canal to the British government (for £4m, famously advanced to Disraeli by the Rothschilds) and the hypothecation of certain Ottoman tax revenues for debt service under the auspices of an international Administration of the Ottoman Public Debt, on which European bondholders were represented.
The critical point is that the debt crisis necessitated the sale or transfer of Middle Eastern revenue streams to Europeans.
The US debt crisis has taken a different form, to be sure. External liabilities have been run up by a combination of government and household dis-saving. It is not the public sector that is defaulting but subprime mortgage borrowers.
As in the 1870s, though, the upshot of this debt crisis is the sale of assets and revenue streams to foreign creditors. This time, however, creditors are buying bank shares not canal shares. And the resulting shift of power is from west to east.
Since September, Middle Eastern and east Asian sovereign wealth funds have made a succession of investments in four US banks: Bear Stearns, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch. Most commentators have been inclined to welcome this global bail-out : better to bring in foreign capital than to shrink balance sheets by reducing lending.
Yet we need to recognise that these “capital injections” represent a transfer of the revenues from the US financial services industry into the hands of foreign governments. This is happening at a time when the gap between eastern and western incomes is narrowing at an unprecedented pace.
In other words, as in the 1870s the balance of financial power is shifting. Then, the move was from the ancient oriental empires (not only the Ottoman but also the Persian and Chinese) to western Europe. Today the shift is from the US, and other western financial centres, to the autocracies of the Middle East and east Asia.
In Disraeli’s day, the debt crisis turned out to have political as well as financial implications, presaging a reduction not just in income but also in sovereignty.
In the case of Egypt, what began with asset sales continued with the creation of a foreign commission to manage the public debt, the installation of an “international” government and finally, in 1882, to British military intervention and the country’s transformation into a de facto colony. In the case of Turkey, the debt crisis was followed by the sultan’s abdication and Russian military intervention, which dealt a lethal blow to the Ottoman position in the Balkans.
It remains to be seen how quickly today’s financial shift will be followed by a comparable geopolitical shift in favour of the new export and energy empires of the east. Suffice to say that the historical analogy does not bode well for America’s quasi-imperial network of bases and allies across the Middle East and Asia.
Debtor empires sooner or later have to do more than just sell shares to satisfy their creditors.
Unquote
How right or how wrong?
Wednesday, 23 February 2011
Who Shot The Fox?
In the period 1956-1957 the British Army had a full Armoured Division in Libya, the 10th, tac sign a fox’s head. It had been an expansion of one of those remnant military bases we had around the world following WW2 and maintained on a just in case basis.
When the Suez Crisis arose the Division was intended to create a threat to the West of Egypt to split the Egyptian forces when the British and French attempted to assert control over the Canal on behalf of the Suez Canal Company and its owners in the City and Paris.
For those of us either in the trade or on reserve Libya was high on the list of postings we did not want. We had heard too many stories from those who had been there done that in the previous decade.
Mercifully, President Eisenhower and the USA would have no truck with any of it and the oil and currency crisis which followed ensured our early departure.
Yet, especially since the oil and gas were tapped, we have been prone to meddle and instruct to little or no purpose. This has led to a number of unhappy situations of which the Lockerbie bombing is probably the major one.
There is now an allegation that those at the top in Libya, formerly Blair and Brown’s good friends, had a lot to do with it. As if we didn’t really know.
What is going on in the countries in the Arab world was predictable. There is a scene in the film “Das Boot” where the submarine has gone to a depth where the pressures are too great and the rivets start popping, pipes give up and the vessel begins to flood. They manage to survive.
The trouble at present is that the pressures have been building up for some time and the lessons of history ought to teach us that if certain pre-conditions for trouble and chaos go critical then the ships of state in question will begin to go down.
Did all these states believe that you could have a large educated under class with no real prospects together with an even larger helot population for the dirty work and hope to survive once food prices rose and other shortages developed?
We have seen some leaders out of the escape hatch in a hurry with more to follow. They are all a lot better provided for than many of the defunct monarchies and aristocracies of the Empires and States of old that collapsed.
They could often be seen wandering the spa’s of Germany and Switzerland and taking tea in the hotels of London eking out allowances from our government. Some would hunt in the Shires.
The present bunch of redundant rulers will do a lot better than that. They own much of London already as well as holdings in the many companies that extract so much from us and other countries.
Meanwhile Cameron goes on a lecture tour pretending that we have some say in the matter. I hope he has read up on oil and currency crises.
One thing he hasn’t got is the ability to put in an Armoured Division and he can’t even invite the former rulers to a fox hunt any more.
When the Suez Crisis arose the Division was intended to create a threat to the West of Egypt to split the Egyptian forces when the British and French attempted to assert control over the Canal on behalf of the Suez Canal Company and its owners in the City and Paris.
For those of us either in the trade or on reserve Libya was high on the list of postings we did not want. We had heard too many stories from those who had been there done that in the previous decade.
Mercifully, President Eisenhower and the USA would have no truck with any of it and the oil and currency crisis which followed ensured our early departure.
Yet, especially since the oil and gas were tapped, we have been prone to meddle and instruct to little or no purpose. This has led to a number of unhappy situations of which the Lockerbie bombing is probably the major one.
There is now an allegation that those at the top in Libya, formerly Blair and Brown’s good friends, had a lot to do with it. As if we didn’t really know.
What is going on in the countries in the Arab world was predictable. There is a scene in the film “Das Boot” where the submarine has gone to a depth where the pressures are too great and the rivets start popping, pipes give up and the vessel begins to flood. They manage to survive.
The trouble at present is that the pressures have been building up for some time and the lessons of history ought to teach us that if certain pre-conditions for trouble and chaos go critical then the ships of state in question will begin to go down.
Did all these states believe that you could have a large educated under class with no real prospects together with an even larger helot population for the dirty work and hope to survive once food prices rose and other shortages developed?
We have seen some leaders out of the escape hatch in a hurry with more to follow. They are all a lot better provided for than many of the defunct monarchies and aristocracies of the Empires and States of old that collapsed.
They could often be seen wandering the spa’s of Germany and Switzerland and taking tea in the hotels of London eking out allowances from our government. Some would hunt in the Shires.
The present bunch of redundant rulers will do a lot better than that. They own much of London already as well as holdings in the many companies that extract so much from us and other countries.
Meanwhile Cameron goes on a lecture tour pretending that we have some say in the matter. I hope he has read up on oil and currency crises.
One thing he hasn’t got is the ability to put in an Armoured Division and he can’t even invite the former rulers to a fox hunt any more.
Tuesday, 22 February 2011
Life Is Full Of Surprises
It is a filthy wet morning and I have to walk to the doctors. The appointment is in the middle of the rush hour and there is no parking anywhere near the surgery. So I stagger down there muttering curses most of the way.
When I get there, he is running late again, this time very late, there has been a patient crisis that had to be sorted fast. OK this is what doctors do, the luck of the draw so there is a wait.
The seats in the waiting room seem to have been designed by persons who like to inflict pain before interrogation so the back tells me to stand but there is nowhere to stand except the middle of the room and that would look silly.
To keep us happy they are playing music through the Tannoy. It is a very old system and the sound quality is worse than that at any railway station. As for the music it is a mix of the most mind numbing mid 20th Century ballads sung by singers who shout out of tune.
Ten minutes in and the brain is telling me it does not like it and my head begins to ache. I begin to want aliens to land and take me somewhere else, anywhere else.
Then I begin to get the hit in the lungs. The room has no ventilation and is already full. The fug of various chemicals coming off the clothing and bodies is building up. I am not the only one to be getting a hit.
Around the room the coughing and wheezing increases in intensity. At least it is better than the music.
At last my name is called. The doctor asks me about a complaint that is strictly female. I explain kindly to him that I am male. He clicks his mouse a few times and realises that something is wrong with the listings on his computer so we sort that one out.
Then he tells me he has to take my blood pressure. I already have a long list of home readings. No go, the rules say that to meet the targets he has to take it. The figures are stratospheric. He tells me he has to prescribe something. The rules say so and the targets have to be met.
I remind him that the last time we went through this rigmarole the pills he gave me had me running up and down to the local dermatology clinic to sort out the severe skin problems that resulted. He looks for pills that might avoid this without success.
After some discussion we decide that the previous prescription still being on file we skip on a new one as he can still claim to be on target.
Now in the press I gather that the NHS has realised that there might be issues with blood pressure readings in surgeries and hospitals due to White Coat Syndrome. This is something that has been known about ever since I first encountered the NHS in 1950 when I was doing the paperwork for my doctor uncle.
I gather from the financial press that pharmaceutical companies are recommended as safe bets for the future and economies are needed in the NHS.
When I get there, he is running late again, this time very late, there has been a patient crisis that had to be sorted fast. OK this is what doctors do, the luck of the draw so there is a wait.
The seats in the waiting room seem to have been designed by persons who like to inflict pain before interrogation so the back tells me to stand but there is nowhere to stand except the middle of the room and that would look silly.
To keep us happy they are playing music through the Tannoy. It is a very old system and the sound quality is worse than that at any railway station. As for the music it is a mix of the most mind numbing mid 20th Century ballads sung by singers who shout out of tune.
Ten minutes in and the brain is telling me it does not like it and my head begins to ache. I begin to want aliens to land and take me somewhere else, anywhere else.
Then I begin to get the hit in the lungs. The room has no ventilation and is already full. The fug of various chemicals coming off the clothing and bodies is building up. I am not the only one to be getting a hit.
Around the room the coughing and wheezing increases in intensity. At least it is better than the music.
At last my name is called. The doctor asks me about a complaint that is strictly female. I explain kindly to him that I am male. He clicks his mouse a few times and realises that something is wrong with the listings on his computer so we sort that one out.
Then he tells me he has to take my blood pressure. I already have a long list of home readings. No go, the rules say that to meet the targets he has to take it. The figures are stratospheric. He tells me he has to prescribe something. The rules say so and the targets have to be met.
I remind him that the last time we went through this rigmarole the pills he gave me had me running up and down to the local dermatology clinic to sort out the severe skin problems that resulted. He looks for pills that might avoid this without success.
After some discussion we decide that the previous prescription still being on file we skip on a new one as he can still claim to be on target.
Now in the press I gather that the NHS has realised that there might be issues with blood pressure readings in surgeries and hospitals due to White Coat Syndrome. This is something that has been known about ever since I first encountered the NHS in 1950 when I was doing the paperwork for my doctor uncle.
I gather from the financial press that pharmaceutical companies are recommended as safe bets for the future and economies are needed in the NHS.
Monday, 21 February 2011
Did Anyone Mention Inflation?
During his term of office President Clinton attended a Gala Performance for charity at the Kennedy Centre in Washington D.C. and went backstage to meet and talk to the cast.
It was the Royal Ballet doing their signature production of “The Sleeping Beauty”. When asked what he had enjoyed about it he replied “We could do with a Lilac Fairy in The White House”.
The US media and political commentators, possibly not familiar with the plot or traditional ballet, were unsure of his meaning and there was a good deal of confusion and misinterpretation. But it was a typical blunt southern boy insight into the meaning of the work that spoke volumes.
Human affairs and especially politics are usually a chaotic and uncertain business in which things more often than not go wrong and bad decisions are made, sometimes with the best of motives, sometimes the worst.
Generations past for the most part called upon passing deities, spirits from the other world or something like fairies to help them sort out the mess. It is possible that the mindsets they developed allowed them to cope with complexity and deal better with disruptions and difficulties.
In the deep past and amongst some peoples at present there might be multiple deities sometimes little better than humans at dealing with things. Unluckily some peoples have the belief of a single God who is always right. The problem is that humans have been unable to agree on either the detail or the general purpose, so tens of millions have died in disputes.
Also, unluckily and perhaps a consequence, there is the habit of endowing political leaders and thinkers and worse still people like economists and financiers with superhuman powers that do not and will never exist. Some may be better than others and some may be luckier but when the going gets really rough all bets are off.
So if I suggest that in the current debate about inflation, deflation or stagflation all the powers that be do not really have much idea about what is going on, how, why or what they should really do may seem harsh there are some good reasons.
In the web site “Naked Capitalism”, I picked up on an item which tells us that in the money markets a key part has gone so far out of control to be a continuing cause of problems and systemic risk. If this is the case then it is really bad news.
The original abstract for the academic research is:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1686004
A commentary on it at near 3000 words is:
http://www.sec.gov/comments/265-26/265-26-51.htm
A few years ago the top chaps at the Bank of England realised that in the City and the major banks the balance sheets were saying there was a lot of new activity and dealings in new financial instruments that had become substantial and very big. So they arranged a lunch at which the top chaps in the banks would explain all this to them in simple terms that they might understand.
Yet again, unluckily, it appeared that the top bankers did not really know what was going on, but all the figures looked very good and pots of money were being made. This completely satisfied the Bank of England who went on to join with the bankers and the legions of financial consultants to advise New Labour that a new Golden Age was born and all they had to do was to let it rip, make a lot of money themselves and the world and the electorate would all be happy.
More or less, perhaps they should go to the ballet more often because just when they thought how lovely it was then it all went badly wrong. Now they are all running round like headless chickens trying to sort it out. But they do not know what is going on out there, the figures are mostly fiction and The Lilac Fairy and all her ilk have gone off in a sulk.
The inflation that is going on at the moment is not like any previous inflation because the structure of international finance, the real economies of most states and the way it all functions are now radically different. Nobody knows where much of the money is, where all the toxic debt has gone, how the money is really flowing around the world , who is handling it and worst of all the implications of who is dealing and what they are dealing in.
Is it possible that within the economy both inflation and deflation are present at the same time? What is a real threat at present is inflation caused by all the known and unknown money being thrown about whilst real economic growth just bumps along or worse declines.
This is called Stagflation. Remember, if population grows or government obligations grow then real economic growth has to be enough to cope with this. It is quite possible that there will be a continuing attrition of the economy to this effect.
“The Sleeping Beauty” is a ballet were good prevails and the couple wed with the suggestion that they will be happy ever after. That is until the kids become teenagers.
In the world today we have more or less put the teenagers in charge of the money.
It was the Royal Ballet doing their signature production of “The Sleeping Beauty”. When asked what he had enjoyed about it he replied “We could do with a Lilac Fairy in The White House”.
The US media and political commentators, possibly not familiar with the plot or traditional ballet, were unsure of his meaning and there was a good deal of confusion and misinterpretation. But it was a typical blunt southern boy insight into the meaning of the work that spoke volumes.
Human affairs and especially politics are usually a chaotic and uncertain business in which things more often than not go wrong and bad decisions are made, sometimes with the best of motives, sometimes the worst.
Generations past for the most part called upon passing deities, spirits from the other world or something like fairies to help them sort out the mess. It is possible that the mindsets they developed allowed them to cope with complexity and deal better with disruptions and difficulties.
In the deep past and amongst some peoples at present there might be multiple deities sometimes little better than humans at dealing with things. Unluckily some peoples have the belief of a single God who is always right. The problem is that humans have been unable to agree on either the detail or the general purpose, so tens of millions have died in disputes.
Also, unluckily and perhaps a consequence, there is the habit of endowing political leaders and thinkers and worse still people like economists and financiers with superhuman powers that do not and will never exist. Some may be better than others and some may be luckier but when the going gets really rough all bets are off.
So if I suggest that in the current debate about inflation, deflation or stagflation all the powers that be do not really have much idea about what is going on, how, why or what they should really do may seem harsh there are some good reasons.
In the web site “Naked Capitalism”, I picked up on an item which tells us that in the money markets a key part has gone so far out of control to be a continuing cause of problems and systemic risk. If this is the case then it is really bad news.
The original abstract for the academic research is:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1686004
A commentary on it at near 3000 words is:
http://www.sec.gov/comments/265-26/265-26-51.htm
A few years ago the top chaps at the Bank of England realised that in the City and the major banks the balance sheets were saying there was a lot of new activity and dealings in new financial instruments that had become substantial and very big. So they arranged a lunch at which the top chaps in the banks would explain all this to them in simple terms that they might understand.
Yet again, unluckily, it appeared that the top bankers did not really know what was going on, but all the figures looked very good and pots of money were being made. This completely satisfied the Bank of England who went on to join with the bankers and the legions of financial consultants to advise New Labour that a new Golden Age was born and all they had to do was to let it rip, make a lot of money themselves and the world and the electorate would all be happy.
More or less, perhaps they should go to the ballet more often because just when they thought how lovely it was then it all went badly wrong. Now they are all running round like headless chickens trying to sort it out. But they do not know what is going on out there, the figures are mostly fiction and The Lilac Fairy and all her ilk have gone off in a sulk.
The inflation that is going on at the moment is not like any previous inflation because the structure of international finance, the real economies of most states and the way it all functions are now radically different. Nobody knows where much of the money is, where all the toxic debt has gone, how the money is really flowing around the world , who is handling it and worst of all the implications of who is dealing and what they are dealing in.
Is it possible that within the economy both inflation and deflation are present at the same time? What is a real threat at present is inflation caused by all the known and unknown money being thrown about whilst real economic growth just bumps along or worse declines.
This is called Stagflation. Remember, if population grows or government obligations grow then real economic growth has to be enough to cope with this. It is quite possible that there will be a continuing attrition of the economy to this effect.
“The Sleeping Beauty” is a ballet were good prevails and the couple wed with the suggestion that they will be happy ever after. That is until the kids become teenagers.
In the world today we have more or less put the teenagers in charge of the money.
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